Nine races will be run and won at Moonee Valley on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:55) Strath Haven Preston Plate 1000m
Going the way of 7 Yulong Island (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS), an Exceed And Excel colt for Team Hawkes that is on debut. This guy has had two Flemington jumpouts in readiness for start one, the latest coming last Friday when leading throughout and what I liked is when he was asked for an effort, he instantly responded and showed good change up speed. Happy to be in his corner.
6 The Big Easy (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a son of Written Tycoon for the Maher/Eustace stable that has had several jumpouts to prepare him for start one. Certainly nothing to jump up and down about from what I’ve seen, but he looks to have done everything right, moved well and stable have had good success over the past couple of seasons in preparing early juvenile winners.
10 Soomayya (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Pride Of Dubai for the Snowden camp that is having start one. She’s had a couple of Flemington jumpouts. The first one was okay, but liked the way she went in the latest when on speed and when clicked up, she responded well and won the trial in solid fashion and time. Tricky gate, but looks to have ability.
Race 2. (13:30) Carnsworth Noble Park (bm70) 1600m
I think 2 Balaabel (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) wins this. Talented filly for the McEvoy stable that finally broke her maiden tag over the mile on Cup Day at Morphettville, showing her class in spanking her rivals. I think with the right placement, she’s a blacktype class filly and probably heads that way in the Autumn. Happy to be in her corner here in what looks a good race for the 3YO’s.
7 November Dreaming (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Tavistock for Danny O’Brien that started prohibitive odds on Kyneton Cup Day and despite looking in trouble on the turn, once she balanced up, she put them away and was impressive. Form out of that race has been good with the third horse, Kin Neko, winning at Seymour. Lands near the speed and will be hard to run down.
4 Jimmy’s Secret (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. Son of Jimmy Choux for Symon Wilde that broke the maiden tag over the mile last start at Hamilton. Visually, it was very good, but have to keep in mind the first 1000m was pretty much a barrier trial speed so those behind, that were limited, were made to be more limited given that slow tempo. Needs to improve off that but he’s got enough scope to do so.
Race 3. (14:05) Condare Court Tanderra (bm84) 1000m
5 Be My Star (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is a Will Clarken trained mare who comes to Melbourne and the stable rarely get it wrong when bringing them over, and generally SA trainers rarely get it wrong. This mare ran on the Parks track two weeks ago and produced a brilliant finale from near last on the turn to win impressively. I think fast run 1000m races are her go in life.
I think the market will be the guide with 4 Causeway Girl (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS). If she remains solid in betting the last 10-15 minutes, it’s a good sign she’s ready to go first up and her best is better than these. Talented mare for Clinton McDonald who resumes, having not raced since August 17 at Caulfield when down the track behind Grey Shadow. The jumpouts have been okay without jumping up and won, but class can get her home.
This is a welcome drop in grade/depth for the Phillip Stokes trained 2 Equal Love (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). This mare was a good winner of the feature sprint on Murray Bridge Cup Day before racing down the straight on Oaks Day and was outclassed but far from disgraced behind Soothing. This looks more her level and despite the weight is one of the hardest to beat.
Race 4. (14:40) Murray Nangatta Hcp 1000m
Going to bank on class getting 1 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) home. Best horse in the race by a mile and there is rain forecast for Friday and Saturday, so if that hits the track, he comes right into play. Hasn’t raced since August when bleeding. Had a track gallop earlier this week and the Stewards were satisfied with the work. Has eyes towards NZ, so may need the run, but has class and Poy rides him very well.
6 Wagner (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is a son of Bernardini for James Cummings that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since August 10 down the Flemington straight when somewhat struggling on the wet track and perhaps was a tired horse behind The Inevitable, who of course has well and truly franked that form since. Has a very good fresh record and recent Flemington jumpout was more than encouraging.
3 Mystyko (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented gelding for Trevor Rogers that was just fair first up in Adelaide behind Soothing before going to the Doveton when just off the speed and loomed large to win but couldn’t hold out the brilliant finale of the enigma that is Viridine. He’s now found positive form and once he does find it, he generally holds it, so he’s likeable here.
Race 5. (15:20) Strathdon Box Hill (bm64) 1500m
5 Talenti (Bet Now: $1.75) looks to have a decent engine in the hood for trainer Robert Hickmott. Made his Australian debut at this track/distance on November 15 when back off the speed before Vorster got going on the turn to build the revs and once he balanced up, the four year old put them away late and won impressively. Confident he can measure up here.
The speed map looks kind for 7 Bill The Bee (Bet Now: $3.80) so I think he has to be respected. He ran over 1400m at Seymour last time out when on speed and giving a good kick under Jordy Childs but couldn’t quite finish the job when a narrow second. Draws wide, but looks to lead for fun and if he can get a cheap furlong or two, he’ll take some beating.
8 Manhattan Arch (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Daniel Bowman trained gelding that had specking at odds when resuming over 1300m at Bendigo and chased hard throughout the straight but couldn’t quite get past Widespread, an in form Godolphin galloper, so I think that reads well for this and you’d like to think there is plenty of upside under the belt.
Race 6. (16:00) Ladbrokes Cash In (bm70) 1200m
There was plenty to like about the first up win of 6 Somals (Bet Now: $3.20) last Friday night at this track/distance. She jumped out sharply at Flemington prior to resuming where she was off the pace and looked in a bit of trouble but once she got clear air, she savaged the line and was impressive. Time wasn’t flash relative to the night, but her late splits were very good and she’s plenty of upside.
4 Rubisaki (Bet Now: $3.10) is a daughter of Rubick for Patrick Payne that resumes. This girl was very good as a 2YO during the Winter and could have raced during the Spring but has been kept on ice for this time of year. Her trials/jumpouts leading in have been quite good and the stable are absolutely flying at the moment. Watch the market and see what it does.
8 Pristine Image (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Symon Wilde trained three year old that has had two runs back from a break. Gave them a spanking to break the maiden tag first up at Hamilton before racing at this track/distance when getting into a tricky spot from the gate and I think had genuine excuses behind Cosmic Rhapsody. Better luck in running, he can turn the tables.
Race 7. (16:40) Ace Seating (bm84) 1600m
I want to give 3 Vanuatu (Bet Now: $3.70) another chance. She comes through the Summoned at Sandown where on face value, I thought she was a touch disappointing, but it was a race dominated on pace by the eventual winner Jamaican Rain and those behind really struggled to make up significant ground. Better suited here and can win.
1 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $2.50 SPECIAL ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained mare that comes to the Valley in winning form having spanked her rivals to win over 1700m on Cup Day. That followed two runs in Sydney where it was a bit inconclusive to know how good she’s going. If she can repeat last start, she’s in the mix. Where she gets to from the gate is the query.
2 Snogging (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Busuttin/Young mare that is five weeks between runs since contesting the Testio at this track/distance where she looked to have every chance just off the speed but couldn’t quite get the job done when fifth to Amangiri. Drops a bit in grade/depth this time around and does no work from the inside gate.
Race 8. (17:20) Kingsville Manor Lakes (bm90) 2040m
Third up at 2040m looks a really good set up for the Chris Waller trained 10 Sir Pippin (Bet Now: $4.80). This bloke resumed over 1500m at Rosehill and was close up behind stablemate Asterius before going to the 1850m at Newcastle two weeks ago where he tried hard but couldn’t quite get past House Of Cartier, who was primed to win and had the A1 run in transit. Sir Pippin looks hard to beat here.
3 Savaheat (Bet Now: $7.50) has returned in super for the Price/Kent team. Tough winner from the back two starts ago during Cup Week before contesting the Eclipse at Sandown a fortnight back and worked home okay without threatening when fourth to Pacodali, who is being touted as a leading chance in the Group l Kingston Town next Saturday, so I think that form reads well for this.
4 Etana (Bet Now: $17.00) is a mare who tends to race best when on the road, so I’ll take a punt on her here. On face value, her two runs back from a break have been awful, but first up in the Tristarc she was back near last in a race run at barrier trial speed. Then went to 1700m during Cup Week at Flemington when wide no cover for the trip. Out to a staying trip now and did look to work very well here earlier this week.
Race 9. (17:55) Daemco (bm78) 1200m
17 Mumbles (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Smart Missile for the Daniel Bowman team that had trialled up just fair prior to resuming over 1100m at Bendigo but gee he was impressive when winning from the back, with his change up speed and class really coming to the fore over the final 200m. Proven city performer and finds a winnable race here up to 1200m.
I think 1200m on a bending track looks a good set up for the Team Corstens trained 10 Morrissy (Bet Now: $3.80). Thought he was very good here first up over 955m behind Bella Vella before racing over 1100m down the Flemington straight on the final day of Cup Week and was solid but perhaps a touch outclassed behind Halvorsen. Better suited here I feel.
Want to give 11 Asgard Massif (Bet Now: $13.00) another chance. John Sadler trains this four year old, who resumed over 1200m on Kyneton Cup Day where he was wide no cover for the trip and chasing a good speed. He was a beaten horse at the top of the straight and dropped out behind Persuader. He’s better than that, and his 3YO form reads well, so giving them another chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 Talenti
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Balaabel
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 7 Yulong Island
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9
Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg Four: 9, 10, 11, 12, 17
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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