1/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Doncaster Mile day

Day One of The Championships comes around this Saturday at Randwick, with a high class ten race meeting set down, four of the races at Group l level. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Doncaster Mile 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Doncaster Mile

TJ Smith Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the TJ Smith Stakes

Australian Derby 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Australian Derby

Inglis Sires  🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Inglis Sires

There are a couple of squibs engaged here. Don’t think you can go wrong having something very small on 12 Destructive Diva (Bet Now:  $SP.00) at the big odds. Wasn’t expected to do much on debut at Canberra over 1000m but she was only one of a handful to defy the pattern to win on debut in very fast time. Extra 100m is fine, and she’ll be strong at the end whereas some of these will be spitting the dummy out.

9 Saltaire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t done much wrong in a four start career and 1100m looks like it will be fine here. Far from disgraced two back in the Inglis Millennium before going to the Sweet Embrace when just off the speed and didn’t get the clearest of paths, finishing close up in defeat behind Lazzago. Dodged the Slipper and the tick over trial was a very nice piece of work. Leading chance.

3 Godfather (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for Team Snowden and is dangerous fresh. He hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast when down the track and at the end of his prep behind Skirt The Law. He has had two trials under the belt to prepare for his return and the stable are very good with placing their runners to advantage. Rates highly against these.

3 Wolverine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been very disappointing since arriving in Australia but she does have a touch of class about her when right. She ran in the Canberra Guineas last time and immediately post race, I thought she was awful when second to Avebury, but when you break down the race and the pattern, her run had merit. Like her up to the mile now and this race is on the thin side after scratchings.

2 Glint Of Silver (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put himself on speed and give himself every chance. Strong winner of the Autumn Stakes at Sandown two back before going to the Phar Lap where he led and yes, the pattern was in his corner, but he still ran a very good race in defeat behind a quality animal in Zougotcha. 1600m should be fine, he’ll be near the front and take running down.

6 The Fortune Teller (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat if he brings anywhere near his best. He hasn’t raced since the Australian Guineas when down the track behind Legarto, beaten just under five lengths. His first up run was very good, his form in the Spring reads well and he does strike a very winnable race here IMO. He commands some level of respect.

If 5 Surefire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is going to be a decent horse, he’d want to be winning this. He’s had three runs back from a spell, and each time, he has been plain on paper, but if you break down each run, he’s had excuses. 1400m fresh too short, 1800m second up was brutally run and 2000m third up, he just got too far back and couldn’t get involved. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run, gets to a suitable trip, bit of cushion in the ground…think he only runs well.

13 Raging Bull (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but is sneaky flying for David Payne. He ran two weeks ago in the Manion Cup and gee he was very good in defeat, charging to the line late and just missing out on the win when beaten a lip by Timour. He has that 2400m run under the belt and that should hold him in good stead for this.

12 Normandy Bridge… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he somewhat back on track? His opening two runs this prep were pretty plain but he showed some form of life in the Sky High, getting back and finding the line pretty well I thought without threatening behind Protagonist. Off the back of that effort, I think he is in with a shout here at a likely decent price given he had so much promise when coming over from overseas this time last year.

5 Madalsa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented filly that should be fine at 2000m. Maher/Eustace trained filly that debuted over the mile at Ararat and while she didn’t beat a great deal, she made an absolute mess of them and was strong in the run to the line on a track that can be quite tricky for an inexperienced horse. It’s all upside with her and on breeding, the rise in trip is ideal.

3 Sequestered (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a James Cummings trained filly that appeals. She has won her past two, the latest coming over 1500m at Hawkesbury back on March 4 when a strong winner from off the speed and looked every bit a filly wanting more ground, which she gets here, and her trial last week was very good. 2000m, sense of timing, J Mac on, rates highly.

2 Premise (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for John O’Shea. This filly is looking to make it three wins on the bounce, her latest win being over 1900m at Gosford where she wasn’t 100% happy around the tight track but she got better as the race went on and was dominant when balanced up in the straight. Confident she can measure up against these.

1 Akasawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to rate highly. Paul Messara trains this gelding, who is a proven city performer and loves the 1400m. He has been kept on ice since winning the Tamworth Qualifier, where he was ridden like the best horse in the race under Bullock and duly saluted, but I will say he did find the best part of the track, so was he flattered? Perhaps, but he has all the upside in the world, proven in town and will be strong late.

2 Testator Silens (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. He finished down the track in this race last year and has been set for it again in search of redemption. Did more than enough fresh in the Southern Cross behind Quantico before going to the Moruya Qualifier and was game as ever in defeat behind a pretty good filly, Kimberley Secrets. Trialled last week at Hawkesbury and moved quite well I thought behind Overpass. Leading contender.

5 Sir Ravanelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1400m but he is a very genuine horse for Terry Evans. He won the opening Qualifier back on Feb 27 at Tuncurry where he was ridden like the best horse in the race, rode to the pattern and was too good. He does seem to race very well on the fresh side and with a soft run in transit, I think he’ll be fine at 1400m.

6 Brave Mead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks an elite talent and confident he measures up. He is on the quick back up after bolting in to win The Valley Pearl last Friday night, leading throughout to win comfortably. He didn’t really bust a gut to win that race, so he should have petrol left in the tank for this race and the way he finds the line, 1400m looks ideal and is hard to beat.

1 Cylinder (Bet Now: $4.00 SPECIAL ODDS) has the A1 form to take this out. He won his opening two runs for the prep and was strong each time. That ensured he was favourite in the Golden Slipper and looked home but had no answers late for the finale produced by Shinzo. He was beaten, but he still ran the 1200m strongly so 1400m will be fine and maps to get an ideal run in transit. Hard to beat.

4 Veight (Bet Now:  $SP.00), potentially, could be one of the best horses in the race. 2/2 to start his career, the latest win being the VRC Sires where he gave them a spanking and got better as the race went on. He has the 1400m run under the belt, upside, timing…just the gate turns me off him. Not sure where he gets to in the run but if he gets luck, he can take this out.

Write off a champion at your own peril and I do think that as he is getting older, 1 Nature Strip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is wanting cushion in the track and to an extent, he’ll get that here, and we know how good this horse is in a Grand Final. Too bad to be true in the Lightning, where I think perhaps the track was too firm for him? Kept on ice with this race solely in mind and his work, both in the trial and exhibition gallop, suggests he is flying.

10 Giga Kick… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he ready to take the mantle as the best sprinter in Australia and potentially the world? A win here would likely confirm that. His resumption in the Challenge was incredible, the way he found the line after copping a nasty check early on, his late splits were out of this world. You’d like to think with natural improvement, he’ll take a power of beating.

3 Private Eye (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be respected. He resumed in the Newmarket, which is a near impossible task, and I thought he ran a super race in defeat behind star filly In Secret, closing off to run fourth. Great second up record and with a liking for Randwick, fast run 1200m, he looks primed to run a ripping race and is a key winning chance.

17 Protagonist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a great each way gamble. He has the Haggas polish and has the platform of the 2000m run under the belt for the tough Randwick mile. Strong win in the Sky High three weeks ago, finishing best in a driving go under J Mac. He gets right down in the weights here, he’ll be strong late…he just doesn’t want the track to be too wet. If it is Good4/Soft5, he’ll do me.

No matter how you look at it, 5 Fangirl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is just so well in at the weights given the form around her. She has been the bride for Anamoe throughout this prep, the latest in the George Ryder where she really attacked the line with purpose to finish second. Gets Moreira aboard, she’ll be strong late, handles all conditions…she has plenty going for her.

8 Duke De Sessa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could be a moral, potentially. His form when with Dermott Weld was at 2000m+ and has the profile of being a Melbourne Cup horse later in the year. The fact he trialled like a jet and is first up at a mile here…gee he is interesting. Fascinating watch from a market perspective, especially right down in the weights.

9 Mark Twain (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be the each way bet here. Has been kept on ice with this race in mind after the NZ Derby where he was incredible in defeat, rocketing to the line from near last on the turn to run fourth to Sharp N Smart. He doesn’t need to get that far back in the run here, he can settle much closer and he looks a proper 2400m horse, whereas some of these, the jury is out.

1 Sharp N Smart (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a star and has claims to being one of the best 3YO’s in Australasia given he is a multiple Group l winner, including against the older horses. Great win in the NZ Derby, and you have to keep in mind that Ryan Elliot rode him arrogantly given he was the best horse in the race so that somewhat flattered his rivals. Think with a more patient steer, he’ll be more effective late and is clearly hard to beat.

17 Domingo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading the right direction and is on the back up, which can be gold for this race. He ran last Saturday at Wyong where he took on an average bunch but he made them look average with a comfortable win, really hitting the line with purpose. 2400m should be fine for him…he lacks the class, but is the hard fit/in form galloper with timing.

8 Russian Conquest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in the get out. Team Snowden trained filly that resumes after a two run Summer prep where she ran second in the Gosford Guineas before a down the track effort in the Magic Millions where it well and truly confirmed that 1400m is a bridge too far. Loved the way she closed off in a trial behind Passive Aggressive, she should get three/four wide cover and be strong at the end.

2 Opal Ridge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping filly for Luke Pepper and with all the upside in the world, she clearly rates as the one to beat. Market said she was ready to go when resuming in the Darby Munro two weeks ago and aided by a peach from Schiller, she made an absolute mess of them and was quite dominant in the run to the line. Is proven at Randwick, good upside, handles all conditions, strong late, hard to beat.

3 Dashing Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Too good for them here two back in the Fireball before going to the Darby Munro where she was near the speed throughout and battled on really well in defeat behind Opal Ridge. I reckon at this level, the end of 1200m is the slight knock with her, but good racing style, hard fit and in form.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Akasawa

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Nature Strip

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 5 Surefire

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 10

Leg Two: 5, 6, 8, 15, 17

Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 17

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 8

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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