The Grand Final of Australian racing is The Championships and the mega two day Carnival kicks off this Saturday at Randwick with a world class ten race program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:30) Kindergarten Stakes 1100m
The Godolphin camp had a couple nominated and they go with a sole rep in 2 Stunts (Bet Now: $9.00). He was crunched in betting when racing in a 1200m maiden at Wyong last time out and he absolutely spanked his rivals under Angland, leading throughout and dominating the race. Has always shown promise. Gets his chance.
8 Enbihaar (Bet Now: $2.65) is the class runner of the field and that should carry her a long way towards victory. She hasn’t raced since the Blue Diamond when coming home from near last to run second to dominant winner Written By. Was due to run in the Slipper but was scratched. If she’s right, she goes close to winning.
7 Vendome (Bet Now: $13.00) is a very interesting runner. Well bred son of O’Reilly on debut for the Hawkes team and we know that when this stable combines with Alan Bell, they rarely miss. He has trialled up really well for his debut run and the fact he does indeed have his first start here tells me stable must have an opinion of him, a good one.
Race 2. (12:10) Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
I think back to the mile should see 2 Villermont (Bet Now: $7.00) take some beating here. He comes through the Rosehill Guineas where he looked to be bolting on the turn and he did appear a winning threat but he just didn’t run out the 2000m behind D’Argento. Back a few notches in depth here, hard fit and I think the 1600m is ideal.
3 Assimilate (Bet Now: $5.75) is a Team Snowden trained colt who bounced back to his brilliant best with an absolute spank job of his rivals in the Canberra Guineas, producing an unbelievable finish from the back to win impressively. He’ll have no issue running the mile and there looks to be a real sense of timing about him.
7 Dissolution (Bet Now: $8.50) is two for two this time in under Brad Widdup. Thought it was a really good win last Wednesday at Warwick Farm over 1400m. Sat up outside the speed and really, after a few hundred metres, it was the only horse you wanted to be on and he put them away, which was a good sign given he can be a thinker. Better with a bunny to chase, so if that eventuates, he’ll go close.
Race 3. (12:45) PJ Bell Stakes 1200m
I think 8 Demerara (Bet Now: $4.50 ODDS BOOST) looks beautifully placed by the James Cummings team. Two for two this time in and both wins, at Moonee Valley and Flemington respectively, have been dominant and she’s run good time each win relative to that respective meeting. Form in the Spring in Sydney was very good, good enough to beat these.
I think 6 She’s So High (Bet Now: $4.10) is right in the game. Mick Price trains this filly and she was just simply outstanding in winning down the straight at Flemington last time, beating an above average type in Regimen. Interestingly the time she ran was a couple of lengths quicker than what Demerara produced seven days later with the track remaining the same condition wise. Huge threat.
This time last year, 2 Frolic (Bet Now: $15.00) ran a blinder in the Golden Slipper. Has had plenty of issues since then but third up now, no excuses for mine. Outstanding first up run in the Light Fingers behind Alizee before having the second up syndrome in the Surround behind Shoals. If she is close enough on the turn, she’s certainly good enough, and the recent trial was quite encouraging.
Race 4. (13:20) Country Championships Final 1400m
Going to side with 5 Victorem (Bet Now: $5.50). Been a fan of this horse since day one and for the most he hasn’t let me down. Brilliant winner of the Port Macquarie Qualifier, aided by a peach from Ben Looker. Hasn’t raced since then, but looked to trial up enormous last Saturday at Port Macquarie. If he runs 1400m, his turn of foot will come to the fore.
3 Don’t Give A Damn…(Bet Now: $4.20) well if you listened to Danny Williams and his interviews prior to the wildcard on Sunday, you would have been thinking how the horse is alive. Couldn’t have talked the horse down any further, but he still bolted up in winning, even though aided by bias. He’s the best horse in the race…just all depends where he is at fitness wise, namely with his feet.
4 Snitz (Bet Now: $7.50) just has to be included. Matty Dunn has this horse going so well and he will take some beating against this lot. He won the Grafton Qualifier a few Sundays back and was dominant in getting the job done despite a few nervous moments early on in the straight. Trialled up well enough at the Gold Coast and a hard Randwick 1400m no issue.
Race 5. (13:55) Chairmans Quality 2600m
I’ll have something each way on the Archie Alexander mare 14 Wheal Leisure (Bet Now: $20.00). Forget her first two runs this prep because she was sitting back against the bias both times. Go on her run in the Albury Cup where she got a mile back off them and never really had clear air until it was all over, but her finale was excellent. No issue with the trip, has upside and a turn of foot.
8 Alward…(Bet Now: $4.30) he’s a threat, a definite winning chance, but I don’t think I could back him because he needs a few things to fall into place for him in order to win. Thought the very negative ride cost him the Manion Cup win last time out, spotting the leaders an impossible but still got very close to Master Of Arts. Confident he turns the tables here, but is that enough to win?
2 Master Of Arts (Bet Now: $10.00) trialled up super over the jumps at the Bool prior to racing in the Manion Cup a fortnight back where he appeared to travel like Black Caviar throughout and he never looked like getting beat. The rise to 2600m looks only beneficial for him and the stable do have a very good record in this race.
Race 6. (14:30) Sires Produce Stakes 1400m
Just have to trust my eye with 2 Long Leaf (Bet Now: $9.50). He was the best run of the beaten brigade in the Slipper IMHO. Dragged back to last in a slowly run race, got right to the extreme outside, which is never a good place to be at Rosehill, yet still rattled off the quickest splits of the race behind Estijaab. Off that run, he’ll have no issue with 1400m.
14 Seabrook (Bet Now: $5.00) was another ripping run from the Slipper. She was back and wide throughout yet still kept surging and clocked some great late splits behind the Hawkes filly. The signs are there she will eat up 1400m, but she has had a couple of gut busters now. How much is left in the tank for Saturday.
3 Not A Single Cent (Bet Now: $14.00) draws such an awful gate but potentially, he could be the best horse in the race. Not sure it was strong depth wise, but was really impressed with the win of Not A Single Cent in the Sires at Flemington, letting down hard from off the pace when eventually clear. He’s ticked the 1400m box…just where he gets to from the gate is a concern.
Race 7. (15:10) Australian Derby 2400m
12 Mission Hill (Bet Now: $11.00) on top for me in the Derby. Baker/Forsman trains this three year old and I thought his run in the Rosehill Guineas was a beauty. Did plenty wrong in the run and really looked all at sea but once he put his mind to it, he ran to the line and through it with purpose. 2400m no issue for mine and he’s in the right stable.
1 Ace High (Bet Now: $4.80) is still a major chance for sure. You have to forgive his Rosehill Guineas run. He was wide no cover for the entire trip and I think we know for sure now he doesn’t let down with give in the track. On top of the ground this time and is the proven big time performer at the Derby trip. He’ll take some beating.
14 Belfast (Bet Now: $11.00) is the x factor for mine. He had no right to get as close as he did to them in the Tulloch last Saturday. He wanted to run straight instead of turning last week which cost him severe momentum and he was forced to make his run in the quicksand nearer the inside. Amazing job to get as close as he did. If his compass is right, he’ll go close.
Race 8. (15:50) TJ Smith Stakes 1200m
I think the obvious is 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $2.25). Proven big time performer at Randwick and he has that very attractive racing pattern of jumping, running and kicking. He had to do a fair bit of chasing last time out in the Challenge but eventually wore down Super Too and smashed the track record in the process. Trialled up super last week and he’s the one to beat.
8 In Her Time (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the clear danger and I think if you like her here, I’d have something on her in The Everest at around $11-$12 because if she wins here, she’s pretty much guaranteed a slot and her price will be half what’s on offer as it stands. Galaxy win was great, helped by a peach from Purton. We’ve waited a long time for her and Redzel to clash. It’ll be great viewing.
3 Brave Smash (Bet Now: $6.50) is the knockout chance. Bit unlucky not to win the Newmarket when beaten a lip by Redkirk Warrior in a thrilling go, who of course beat Redzel in the Lightning by a lip so the form is easy to tie, and Brave Smash wasn’t far off in The Everest. In terms of a bet, I’d back him to place at around $2.50+.
Race 9. (16:30) Doncaster Mile 1600m
1 Humidor (Bet Now: $11.00 ENHANCED ODDS) looks the one to beat for me despite the weight and history saying he can’t do it. Really good run first up in the Futurity before going to the Blamey where he looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly, albeit not up against much and again he wanted to duck in. For mine, he’s the best horse in the race so I’ll go his way.
The weight scale does make 9 Kementari (Bet Now: $4.50 ENHANCED ODDS) one of the hardest to beat. Brilliant winner of the Randwick Guineas before taking on the great mare in the George Ryder. The tactics, IMHO, were the wrong ones and they probably cost the horse second place behind Winx. Tumbles down in weight and draws a sweet gate.
8 Tom Melbourne…(Bet Now: $21.00 ENHANCED ODDS) ah Tom Tom Tom. He found a new way to get beat when resuming in the Ajax. Blake Shinn got the whip caught in the reins and he couldn’t get at the horse properly, but even then, he loomed as if he’d go past Comin’ Through, but he didn’t attack the line and want the win…again. He can win…won’t be getting my money.
Race 10. (17:10) Adrian Knox Stakes 2000m
1 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $3.70) clearly on top. She has come back enormous for John Sargent and the Oaks looks at her mercy if she keeps progressing and wins here. Kembla Grange Classic win was outstanding. She took her time to wind up but she eventually wore down Torvill, who placed in the Group l Surround prior. Behind that pair, the depth looked thin, which is a query, but hard to knock the way she is going despite the poor blood count which forced her out of the Vinery.
4 Harmattan (Bet Now: $2.60) is the big watch here. Looks a very good filly for the Godolphin camp who was very impressive in her first two career outings, winning each time, before racing in the Alexandra on William Reid night and running a ripping second to Think Bleue. Query at 2000m, but she’s very talented.
5 Chilly Cha Cha (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Kris Lees trained filly who doesn’t bring the strongest form into this, but she is a winner and has that good racing pattern of being on speed and fighting, which is what she did to win last time out over the mile at Gosford (Metro) when proving too good for Improvise, who failed with excuses last week at Doomben. Gives the impression 2000m will be no issue.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 1 Luvaluva
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Villermont
VALUE: Race Five Number 14 Wheal Leisure
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 6, 8, 12, 14
Leg Two: 1, 3, 8
Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 9
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 13
$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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