The Grand Finals of Australian racing are finally here- The Championships, and it begins this Saturday at Randwick where we see a bumper ten race card, with four majors, most notably the Doncaster Mile (1600m) where Winx dominates the betting. The weather is fine, the track is sot (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:10) : Widden Kindergarten Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 3 El Divino (Best Odds: $3.70) is a well bred colt who debuted at Gosford (metro) and just bolted up on the heavy track, winning by four lengths with a bit of ease. The time was very sharp, quicker than the other two year old race, and based on times, she would have been very competitive with the older horses over 1200m, so the 1100m here will be no issue, trained on the track and looks well above average.
Big Danger: 1 Astern (Best Odds: $2.40) was well fancied to win the Slipper but was very disappointing in the run when finishing down the track behind Capitalist. Massive drop in grade here and despite a wide gate, he is a definite leading contender.
Roughie: 4 Hostwin Legend (Best Odds: $41.00) was a drifting favourite on debut at Warwick Farm and that market fluc was spot when he could only manage a fourth to Crafty Cop, but that horse ran a beauty at Stakes level last weekend, so the form doesn’t read too bad, and his trials leading in were outstanding, so I think he deserves another chance.
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Race Two (12:45) : Carbine Club Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $5.20) ran well in the Sires on this day last year and returns now under the care of Robert Smerdon. He ran in the Bendigo Guineas (1400m) last time out and the run was jut odd I thought. He looked to travel well in the run but he didn’t quicken when asked, but his last 150m was excellent, an indicator for mine that he will lap up the Randwick mile and should be ready to peak.
Big Danger: 4 Montauk (Best Odds: $8.00) resumed at Kembla Grange last Wednesday against the older horses and wasn’t far off behind Roman Odyssey, beaten less than two lengths with 61kg. His trials leading in were very impressive and perhaps the gelding could be the making of this horse. As I keep saying, I love Waller horses on the back up and this horse fits the criteria.
Roughie: 2 Tatoosh (Best Odds: $11.00) drops in grade after contesting the Tulloch (2000m) last Saturday where he got back near last in the run and worked home alright behind Old North. That tough 2000m run should see him nicely suited here, and he’ll love some give in the track.
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Race Three (13:20) : Schweppes Chairman’s Handicap 2600m:
Back Me: 1 Libran (Best Odds: $2.25) should tune up for the Sydney Cup with a win here. He still did plenty wrong last time out in the Manion Cup (2400m), but he was just dominant and could have won by more had he put his mind to it. I think he is better when he has something to chase, so if that can eventuate here, we might see a better horse.
Big Danger: 3 Destiny’s Kiss (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed from a let up in the Sky High (2000m) at Rosehill and stuck to the task pretty gamely when a close up fourth to Sir John Hawkwood. The form out of that race held up last weekend in the Neville Sellwood, so don’t be put off, and the recent trial behind Good Project was quite encouraging. If the track has any give in it, he can improve.
Roughie: 8 Dee I Cee (Best Odds: $8.00) ran over 2400m here in a hot race where he chased a hectic tempo and fought on like a tiger when second to Lord Disick. That was second up at 2400m after resuming at the mile, so he should be nearly ready fitness wise and looks the main threat to Libran if he is off his game.
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Race Four (13:55) : Country Championships Final 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Clearly Innocent (Best Odds: $5.50) at $1.90-ish looks generous. He qualified by bolting up in a qualifier at Scone before racing there again a couple of weeks back and despite carrying 62.5kg, it was Black Caviar-esque in terms of how easy he did it. He would have done more work in a barrier trial. If he brings that form here, they won’t beat him. I will also throw in 13 Not A Shadow, who was good in the Dubbo Qualifier and loves give in the track.
Big Danger: 1 Lofty’s Menu (Best Odds: $3.50) comes here off the back of a qualifier win at Goulburn where he sprouted wings down the outside to win impressively. He then ran at Rosehill a couple of weeks back and closed off strongly behind High Midnight. I am a fan of country horses who have genuine city form, which is what this horse has. Handles all conditions and looks the main threat.
Roughie: 16 Another Valley (Best Odds: $34.00) won the Taree qualifier well, and it has been a great effort by her considering she is a three year old filly. She then went to Wyong (metro) a couple of weeks back and closed off nicely late when fifth to The Special Two. In her lone run at Randwick, she placed behind the above average Hermosa Beach in a Highway race despite sitting three and four wide no cover. Not sure she can win, but $26 looks overs.
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Race Five (14:30) : Dilmah Tea P J Bell Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Egyptian Symbol (Best Odds: $6.00) is just bursting to win a race, and I think she gets her chance here. She could not have been ridden any better by Avdulla last time out in the Darby Munro at Rosehill but found one better, and a ripper in Southern Legend. She is clearly knocking on the door to win a race and this looks it for her. One of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: 2 Pearls (Best Odds: $18.00) drops big time in class after contesting the Coolmore Classic (1500m) last time out where she ran down the track behind Peeping but the effort was still alright considering she was a three year old filly taking on the older horses. McDonald back on now, good gate and has won on wet ground previously.
Roughie: 18 Don’t Doubt Marley (Best Odds: $41.00) had her first run for Gerald Ryan at Kembla Grange last Wednesday and did an alright job with the 60.5kg when a close up fifth to handy type Dixie Chick. Fitter, weight relief and when trained in Victoria, she had form around the likes of Petits Filous and Stay With Me, which was the A grade filly form for the Spring.
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Race Six (15:10) : Inglis Sires’ 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Yankee Rose (Best Odds: $3.50) looks the one to beat. I didn’t mind her at a price in the Slipper and she ran a mighty race and almost defied history when second to Capitalist given she was first up and no horse in Slipper history has won the race after a break longer than eight weeks. Can only see upside with her and she will eat up the 1400m. I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t look the winner.
Big Danger: Outside Yankee Rose, the best run in the Slipper from the beaten brigade was 1 Telperion (Best Odds: $3.70), who was ducking and weaving his way through the field for a real eye catching fourth. He was three weeks between runs, so he is another who should have upside. Bigger track and extra furlong is perfect, and with a better steer, he’ll take some beating.
Roughie: 10 Faraway Town (Best Odds: $34.00) resumed in the Magic Night (1200m) and closed off strongly from near last to run fifth to Calliope, who is a talented type for Godolphin. Looks as though she’ll relish the step up to 1400m and if there is any rain about, her chances will enhance given she was an impressive debut winner on the heavy track and is bred to lap up a track with give in it.
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Race Seven (15:50) : BMW Australian Derby 2400m:
Back Me: 1 Tarzino (Best Odds: $1.85) just picks himself here. He was just dominant in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m), and there was more merit to the win given he wasn’t in the best ground. Bigger track, extra 400m, upside and comes out of the right form reference. Anything better than even money looks luxurious and only bad luck will beat him. I personally think even with bad luck, he’ll still be too good.
Big Danger: 4 Tally (Best Odds: $7.50) comes through the Alister Clark (2040m) where he was superb, beating home Palentino, the horse that beat Tarzino in the Australian Guineas (1600m), so on that basis, he can definitely measure up here, and the way he raced there, he will have no issue running the 2400m out. Looks the main, and only threat to Tarzino.
Roughie: 6 Torgersen (Best Odds: $17.00) is on the back up from last Saturday in the Tulloch (2000m) where he got back and worked to the line very strongly late in the piece to run second to impressive Old North, who would have run well here had he taken his spot in the field. He is one of these typical Waller horses that has looked just fair, but finds form and backs up seven days later. He is the definite knockout hope at odds.
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Race Eight (16:30) : Darley TJ Smith Stakes:
Back Me: The horse with the form on the board is 1 Chautauqua (Best Odds: $3.75), and I think he is the clear horse to beat, so I am not sure why he isn’t favourite. He was world class in winning the Lightning (1000m) first up before going to the Newmarket (1200m) and the weight just beat him behind The Quarterback, who was unbelievable in the William Reid last week. He defied a double bias to win this race last year, and gee I am just so confident he can beat these.
Big Danger: 14 Exosphere (Best Odds: $3.80) resumed in the Lightning (1000m) off the back of a couple of Black Caviar-esque barrier trials, but unfortunately for all concerned, he was forced near the inside which clearly wasn’t the place to be. He has since trialled here a couple of weeks and the only word you can say is “wow”. Still, all he has done this time in has starred at the trials. If he brings that on race day, he’ll just about take care of these.
Roughie: 4 Terravista (Best Odds: $12.00) went within a lip of beating Chautauqua in the Lightning before running in the Galaxy (1100m), and on face value, he was disappointing behind Griante. Doesn’t surprise that Bowman has jumped off but what I will say is that if the horse is anywhere near his best, he will give this a shake and is the overs.
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Race Nine (17:10) : The Star Doncaster Mile 1600m:
Back Me: I have been on 10 Happy Clapper’s (Best Odds: $13.00) back for this race for some time and I don’t see any reason to jump off. His two runs at WFA this time in have been outstanding, the latest in the George Ryder (1500m) when a closing fifth to Winx. He gets an 8kg weight swing on Winx here, has more upside and horses down in the weights have dominated recent years of the Doncaster. He doesn’t deserve to be double figure odds.
Big Danger: 3 Winx (Best Odds: $2.30) is the obvious but she’ll need to produce her champion qualities to beat this field. But it’s hard to dismiss after her high class George Ryder win given she was ridden outside her comfort zone yet still won with ridiculous ease. She was knocked down yet was able to win the Epsom in the Spring, and interesting to note her time was a touch slower than the time Happy Clapper produced to win the Villiers. Everything is against her, but she might just be too brilliant.
Roughie: I am a huge rap for the mare 11 Azkadellia (Best Odds: $8.00) and would love to have her on top. Her efforts in the Spring were just out of this world against bias. Her two runs back home this time in were also outstanding before running in the Coolmore (1500m) where she closed off strongly to run second to Peeping in a race where the form has stood up. Harder here, and first time taking on the big boys here, but she is a Group l horse…will it be here? I am not so sure.
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Race Ten (17:50) : Tab Adrian Knox Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Really interested to see how 6 Alittle Loose (Best Odds: $10.00) steps up here. This Mick Kent trained filly comes off a last start third over the Moonee Valley, but you had to like the way she charged home and ran through the line. The trainer has a wonderful record with stayers, in particular younger ones, and he knows which ones are Carnival class.
Big Danger: 7 Seltzer (Best Odds: $21.00) has had a couple of tough runs in recent times, the latest when running second to Smarty Pants over the Gosford mile. That run was against older horses, so I think she has had a good grounding for her 2000m debut and stable is low flying at the moment.
Roughie: 13 Zasorceress (Best Odds: $34.00) is the best filly in the race by some distance, but she is just a nut case upstairs. Bad racing manners and tardy beginnings are costing her dearly, as we have seen in a few runs this time in. She is still a maiden, but she has the potential to win this and be competitive in the Oaks, but she needs to put it all together.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Tarzino
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 8 Yankee Rose
VALUE: Race Nine Number 10 Happy Clapper
Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 14
Leg Three: 3, 10, 11, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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