The $300,000 WA Oaks will take pride of place at Ascot tomorrow (Wednesday) after the original Oaks meeting set-down for last Saturday had to be rescheduled because of inclement weather.
All that means is racing enthusiasts have had to wait four days longer before they could see Wonderfully Made, Masmelo and Admire Astra renew their rivalry, a much anticipated, big race showdown after these three runners filled the first three placings in both the Listed Ascot 1000 Guineas, over 1800m, and the Listed Natasha Stakes, over 2200m, their warmup runs for the Oaks.
The Daniel Morton trained Wonderfully Made was a comfortable winner of the 1000 Guineas. She met Masmelo, who finished second, and Admire Astra, who finished third, at level weights and beat them home by 2.12 and 2.86 lengths respectively.
That was over 1800m.
The Natasha Stakes, which followed the 1000 Guineas, took the distance test all the way up to 2200m and the outcome led to a shuffling of the pack when Wonderfully Made, who was now carrying 2kg more than her two rivals (56kg to 54kg) over 400m more ground, was not able to assert the authority she displayed in the 1000 Guineas and could only manage third place, finishing as the beaten $1.50 race favourite.
This time the winner was Masmelo who beat the second placed Admire Astra home by just under a length at level weights, making it a similar result between these two runners as in the 1000m Guineas where Masmelo beat Admire Astra by three-quarters-of-a-length.
In the Oaks on Wednesday … with these runners now pushing the envelope out to a 2400m contest, Masmelo and Admire Astra will meet at level weights.
Purely on the basis of the results in their previous clashes, Masmelo would appear to have the edge over Admire Astra … but there is that extra 200m that will need to be taken into account.
As will the continuing presence of Wonderfully Made who is now back on level terms with Masmelo and Admire Astra at the weights … they will all carry 55.5kg … a factor which has to bring her right back into the race.
The other intriguing factor going into the Oaks is that both the 1000 Guineas and the Natasha Stakes were run on tracks rated as a Good 4.
Just how the track will stand up on Wednesday after the poor weather last week remains to be seen. It is currently a heavy 8. If it stays in the heavy, or even the soft range, it will make the 2400m trip just that little bit more energy-sapping.
Could that open the door to an upset?
Apart from the three main protagonists already mentioned, five other runners are due to face the starter … three of which, Chino Bay, Heavenly Rapture and Poppy’s Roses, all finished behind the three main fancies in the Natasha Stakes. Of the other two runners, Sunday Mass is a last start Maiden winner while Radio Silence has yet to win a race, or finds a place, in four starts.
So, the answer to the possibility of an upset question … is no, or very unlikely.
Which brings us back to the well performed trio of Wonderfully Made, Masmelo and Admire Astra.
Chances are they could ell fill the first three places again … the real question is, how will they sort themselves out this time.
