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The Brisbane Winter Carnival reaches its climax this Saturday at Eagle Farm, with the Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) and JJ Atkins highlighting a fab nine race program. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

Best Bookies πŸ’° πŸ‘‰Β View the Best Betting Sites and Bookie Apps

Stradbroke Handicap πŸ†: View the Field and Odds for the Stradbroke Handicap

JJ Atkins Stakes πŸ†: View the Field and Odds for the JJ Atkins Stakes

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Race 1. (11:43) The Wayne Wilson (L) 1600m

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I don’t think 2 Yellow Jersey (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) would not have looked out of place in the Stradbroke so I like him here. He makes his Aussie debut this French import, and his trial work has been quite strong to my eye. I think he could be a force in some nice races in the Spring so I am keen on his prospects.

Danger

11 Fawkner Park (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs since resuming in the Bernborough. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up ground and was good in defeat. If within range, he’s got the finale to be dangerous.

Long Shot

6 Warby (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) steps up to the mile after racing over 1400m here two weeks back. He was dragged back to last and was never a factor behind Bengal Diamond. Like him up in trip and from the gate, can settle much closer.

Race 2. (12:18) Oxlade Stakes (L) 1200m

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5 Hard To Exceed (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) could be a rocket for Peter Robl. Hasn’t raced since a debut win at Doomben on March 4 where he made an absolute mess of them and ran decent time in the process. He has looked sharp in two trial wins for the return and resuming in a race like this clearly signals intent for mine.

Danger

11 Lady Catalina (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) ran third in the Woodlands during the Scone Carnival. She was on speed throughout and tried hard but the end of 1100m at that level just found her out. Back a fair way in overall depth, she’s in the mix.

Long Shot

8 Pearl Of Dubai (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs since placing in a maiden at Hawkesbury when near the speed and presented to win but just couldn’t quite get there. Tick over trial was good, proven Stakes performer and the stable is flying.

Race 3. (12:53) Brisbane Cup (G2) 3200m

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7 Bella Montagna (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) for me. She tried her guts out two weeks ago in the Premiers Cup but just couldn’t quite peg back stablemate Alalcance, just missing. She looks as if she’ll be fine at 3200m, has that sense of timing and is well in at the weights.

Danger

5 Highland Bling (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) was pretty much a DNP in the Premiers Cup. Back to last in the run, he was solid late, but was never a factor. Much better suited here IMO and with a more positive ride, he’s dangerous.

Long Shot

11 Hutchence (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is one for exotics. He ran third at Randwick last time, getting the suck run in behind and loomed to win but in a sit/sprint, he couldn’t quite peg them back when third. 3200m should be fine, a first four contender.

Race 4. (13:28) Gunsynd Classic (G3) 1600m

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With eyes towards the Tatts Tiara, I am not sure about 1600m here back to 1400m in two weeks ago, but I am very keen on 10 Within The Law (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) for the Tiara, so I am keen on her here. She was unbelievable in the Fred Best, the way she rocketed late after getting back to near last. If she is within range 400m out, I think good luck beating her.

Danger

2 Skyhook (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is a slight query at the mile but he has class and a good racing style. He tried his guts out on speed in the Fred Best but just couldn’t quite fend off Regal Award in a driving go. If the mile is fine, he’s dangerous.

Long Shot

4 Burma Star (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) was midfield in the Fred Best two weeks back. He got off speed and seemingly had his chance but just whacked in the run to the line. Like him at the mile…not sure he wins but can run first four.

Race 5. (14:03) Hinkler Hcp (L) 1200m

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17 About To Explode (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is a great each way gamble. He was 1200m back to 1110m in the Spear Chief where he was just run off his legs but loved the way he kept finding the line. He’ll love getting back to 1200m at Eagle Farm, can settle closer…he only runs well.

Danger

I don’t think there was any fluke about the win from 18 Arabian Rose (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) at Doomben two weeks ago, the way she let down from off speed was that of a Mare who could be destined for Stakes company. A win here and I dare say that is where they will head. I think she will be.

Long Shot

6 Barber (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) steps up to 1200m after resuming over 1110m in the Chief De Beers when back off speed and was good late in the piece when close up behind Flying Destiny. Fitter and up in trip, he’s in the mix.

Race 6. (14:38) Dane Ripper Stakes (G2) 1300m

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Keen to be with 5 Ahha Ahha (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00). Qatar have purchased her, sent her to Chris Waller and it’s clear they are aiming at the Tatts Tiara before heading to the breeding barn. Her trial work in Sydney has been electric and if she’s here to play, she’s a clear top seed.

Danger

I was hoping they’d run 12 Gerringong (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) next week in the Gai Waterhouse, but they are running here with eyes towards the Tiara. Now with Team Munce, her trial last week, albeit against inferior opposition, was superb, and she’s here to play.

Long Shot

13 Poster Girl (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should be at peak fitness. She ran third in the Helen Coughlan two weeks ago, trying hard after getting the beaut run in transit but just lacked the finale to go with them late. She is a must for exotics.

Race 7. (15:17) J.J. Atkins (G1) 1600m

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Been hot on 2 Martist (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) for this race for a few weeks and won’t drop. I think he should have gone close to winning the BRC Sires but just had no luck in the straight and didn’t have the clearest of paths. He should be fine at the mile and with room to move, he can wind up and finish over the top.

Danger

5 Stormy Marco (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is the fascinating runner. He didn’t beat much on debut at Hawkesbury but was strong to the line. He then went to the BRC Sires and was going to be in the finish but got badly checked and J Mac eased him down late. I think he’s very dangerous here.

Long Shot

8 Cormier (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is the big watch for me. He wants this track to dry out, because he was a dynamic debut winner at Scone on a dry track before finding a bog at Rosehill and was there to blow them away I thought but he just didn’t ping and was run down late. He’ll run the mile fine. Just wants a drying track.

Race 8. (15:57) Stradbroke Hcp (G1) 1400m

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It’s looked a clear target race for 4 Another Wil (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) and he’s here, cherry ripe and ready to go for mine. He has performed well in the two key lead ups, firstly in the 10,000 before a game close up effort in the Kingsford Smith. He looks ready to rock and roll at 1400m, won’t mind juice in the track…only runs well.

Danger

18 Regal Award (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is a lunatic of a horse but clearly has an engine under the hood. That was seen in the Fred Best when keen in the run so Neindorf eased him three wide from the 1/1 for clear air and he was just too big and too strong. Confident he can measure up.

Long Shot

Is 11 Estadio Mestalla (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) the forgotten horse? I think he is. I think he has been fabulous in two runs back, the latest in the Luskin Star when closing with real purpose from near last to run fourth. Blinkers back on, will settle on speed and he won’t know himself with 53.5kg on his back. He’ll run a beauty.

Race 9. (16:30) Q22 (G2) 2200m

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6 Kovalica (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) ran last in the Doomben Cup. He got into a decent spot off speed I thought but when asked, he whacked and was never a threat. Hit and miss but in a race like this, he’s dangerous at a price.

Danger

1 Half Yours (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) isn’t a WFA horse IMO but this race has thinned right out. I think he’s been just fair in all three runs back but now at peak fitness, 2200m, and juice in the track, he clearly commands respect against these.

Long Shot

3 Knight’s Choice (Bet Now:Β  $SP.00) is sneaky flying. He ran in the Lord Mayors two weeks back here and was good late without threatening, clocking good late splits. Love the rise in trip, should do no work…he can run an improved race.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Four Number 10 Within The Law

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Yellow Jersey

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Another Wil

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 13

Leg Two: 2, 5, 8, 9

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 11, 13

Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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