The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where is Strickland Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (13:58) Morley Growers Market Hcp 1200m
4 Bassett Hound (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a beauty for Mitch Pateman. 2/2 this time in, winning like a rocket first up before overcoming trouble to win two weeks ago. Tricky gate, but he looks loaded with talent and 1200m should be no issue.
2 Long Service Leaf (Bet Now: $SP.00) just has to run the 1200m right out and he’s a clear threat for mine. 2/2 this time in, the latest over 1000m here two weeks ago when giving them a start and a beating to win in dominant fashion. Extra 200m, on paper, should be fine, he’s hard to beat.
3 Sound Of Speed (Bet Now: $SP.00) ran third to Long Service Leaf two weeks back here. He got off speed and kept chasing with purpose in a pretty good effort in defeat. Like him up to 1200m and can settle much closer in the run.
Race 2. (14:33) Mc Polytrack Plate 1400m
1 Swift Ruler (Bet Now: $SP.00) picks himself for mine. Dominant win two weeks ago over 1300m here, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive effort. Extra 100m looks ideal, can settle closer…think it is a case of good luck beating him.
2 Encroaching (Bet Now: $SP.00) ran second to Swift Ruler a fortnight back here. He sat off speed and worked to the line well but was clearly no match for the impressive winner, which I suspect will happen again, but I think he’ll fill a place again.
3 Brave Move (Bet Now: $SP.00) was 1200m back to 1000m when racing at the midweeks here. He landed on speed and seemingly had every chance but just felt the pinch late. Did a good job on debut at 1200m so 1400m, I think, is fine. First four contender.
Race 3. (15:09) Tabtouch - Westspeed Platinum Series Heat 1300m
14 Nickelplay (Bet Now: $SP.00) for me. Thought she was very good last Wednesday over 1400m here, getting a fair way out of her ground but really liked the way she finished her race off in defeat behind Random Rewards. If she can get a drag into the race, she can launch over the top.
3 Rainline (Bet Now: $SP.00) commands respect. She ran last Wednesday over 1200m here and worked home well from the back. Tricky gate but with a more positive ride, I think she’ll take beating against this lot.
6 Spank Appeal (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a Dan Morton trained gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since March 14 when midfield over the mile at Ascot. Hasn’t had a public trial for the return so watch betting and see if it tells you whether or not he’s ready.
Race 4. (15:49) Tabtouch Punters Club Now On Sale Hcp 2200m
2 First Encounter (Bet Now: $SP.00) should love a rise in trip here. He ran over the mile in the WA Day Cup last start and was a real eye catcher the way he closed his race off in defeat. Proven 2000m+ performer, good upside to come, he clearly takes beating.
4 I Love Your Smile (Bet Now: $SP.00) steps up to 2200m after a third over 2100m here two weeks ago, where she took forever to wind up and get into her work, but she kept chasing and was pretty good in defeat. Hard fit now, she’s in the mix.
5 Grand Reserve (Bet Now: $SP.00) has had a few runs at the mile and is racing like he wants more ground, which is what he gets here. He ran over the mile two weeks back here and was okay late without threatening. Doubt he wins, but I think he’s a big improver at odds.
Race 5. (16:44) Strickland Stakes 2000m
1 Western Empire (Bet Now: $SP.00) picks himself I feel. He was ridden a bit upside down in the Hyperion, which took something away from his finale, but class kicked in and he just got there. Patient ride, he should love 2000m and I think will be too classy once again.
10 Hoba West (Bet Now: $SP.00) ran a beauty in the Hyperion. He led everywhere bar the last stride, nabbed on the post by Western Empire in an epic contest. He’ll be fine at 2000m, should get front end control and only run well.
3 Diamond Scene (Bet Now: $SP.00) was a total forgive from the Hyperion IMO. Ridden ugly from the wide gate, was caught out in no mans land for the trip and the run told late. Better run in transit, she could pinch first four at a price.
Race 6. (17:20) Liquor Barons Hcp 1400m
5 Territory Man (Bet Now: $SP.00) looks here to play. Team Williams trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since Jan 17 when making up ground over 1800m at Ascot but was too far back. Fresh at 1400m looks to signal intent and has trialled super.
2 Gold Maker (Bet Now: $SP.00) had been bursting to win but kept finding trouble. But, that all changed three weeks ago at this track/distance, sitting off speed and producing a well timed finale to score. Confidence is up, he should run a positive race.
8 Talkaway (Bet Now: $SP.00) comes to Saturday grade after a track/distance win last Wednesday, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive effort. Harder here, but draws to get a suck run, she’s one for exotics.
Race 7. (17:51) Happy 70th Birthday Phil Davey Hcp 1650m
12 Mississippi Dawn (Bet Now: $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. She ran over the mile here three weeks ago, getting a fair way out of her ground but liked the way she finished her race off in defeat. If she can settle closer, be within range, she has the finale to take this out.
5 Sixinch Heels (Bet Now: $SP.00) was an impressive winner here two back. She then went to the WA Day Cup at Northam and was good from the back without threatening. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and gets in well after the claim.
2 Odinaka (Bet Now: $SP.00) has been given a mini freshen up, his last run coming on May 9 at Ascot when near the speed and presented but just tired late behind Westbound. Fresh legs, back a fair way in depth I feel, he’s one that could pinch first four.
Race 8. (18:30) Peters Investments Hcp 1650m
4 Opportunistic (Bet Now: $SP.00) looks back on track for Michael Grantham. He has caught the eye in both runs back, the latest over 1400m here two weeks ago, closing with purpose from near last when fourth. Hard fit, up in trip, can settle closer and launch late.
2 Russian To The Bar (Bet Now: $SP.00) commands respect for Luke Fernie after a win over 1400m here a fortnight back, getting the beaut run off speed before getting clear air and letting down strongly to score. Fitter, up in distance, he only runs well.
8 Noteworthy (Bet Now: $SP.00) was down the track behind Russian To The Bar two weeks back, but I thought did close off pretty well in defeat. Good upside to come and if within range, I think she has the finale to be dangerous.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Western Empire
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Swift Ruler
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Mississippi Dawn
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 12
Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 8
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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