Matt Smith remains in two minds over whether Portland will contest The Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Rosehill with the trainer not keen to run him on a firming track.
Portland was nominated for Saturday’s race and the Q22 (2200m) in Brisbane, but Smith opted not to accept for the latter, wary of the hit-and-miss weather forecast and Eagle Farm’s renowned drying capabilities.
As it stands, the Queensland circuit is rated a heavy 8 a day out from the Stradbroke Handicap meeting, while Rosehill remains a soft 5.
“It was a flip of the coin, but it was a $10,000 acceptance, float fees and all the rest of it, so I decided to stay here instead,” Smith said.
“To be competitive with those horses, he needed to get a nice, wet track, which I wasn’t sure he’d get.”
Portland would have been taking on the ilk of Melbourne and Caulfield Cups winner Half Yours and star mare Pride Of Jenni in the Q22, while his best performed rival in Saturday’s The Queen Elizabeth II Cup (2400m) is last year’s Queensland Derby winner Maison Louis, who has been in and out of form.
However, he does rise 5.5kg on the 53.5kg he carried to victory in the Lord Mayors Cup (2000m) last start and Smith admits that is a query.
“It is a big concern jumping up that quickly. He’s coming off the minimum to carrying top weight, but he has carried big weights overseas,” he said.
“It’s hard to predict which horses will carry big weights and which won’t. (Group 3 winner) Sweet Thomas, he carried 61 like it was 53. I don’t know how the mechanics of that work. We just have to try.”
“He’s in form. It’s the perfect race for him and if we do get a track with a bit of give in it, he will be hard to beat.”
While Portland hasn’t been tested beyond 2100m in Australia, he is a winner over Saturday’s 2400m journey in the UK.
He has also been given a solid platform for the step up with four middle-distance runs, so Smith can’t see why he won’t handle the trip.
“He’s had the foundation now, he’s won over 2400 overseas. You’ve got to think he’s okay,” he said.
Portland is a $7.50 chance in an open market that has six of the nine runners marked at $8 and under, with Thebudgiesmugla a $2.40 favourite after being scratched from the Brisbane Cup (3200m) in preference for Sydney.
