History is on the line in the TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) this Saturday at Randwick. Nature Strip, the champion sprinter, is looking to win the race for a record fourth time on the bounce, but a loss, or a below par run, could see the veteran be retired.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 TJ Smith Stakes.
Market 💰: View the Odds for the TJ Smith Stakes
2023 TJ Smith Stakes Speed Map
There are a couple of speed types engaged, but they won’t be troubling Nature Strip for the front. I think he’ll be leading comfortably, with Passive Aggressive stalking and Shades Of Rose sitting outside. Lost And Running is drawn wide and likely will have to roll the dice in going forward if they want to win.
2023 TJ Smith Stakes Runner Preview:
1. Nature Strip: Write off a champion at your own peril and I do think that as he is getting older, Nature Strip is wanting cushion in the track and to an extent, he’ll get that here, and we know how good this horse is in a Grand Final. Too bad to be true in the Lightning, where I think perhaps the track was too firm for him? Kept on ice with this race solely in mind and his work, both in the trial and exhibition gallop, suggests he is flying.
2. Lost And Running: Lost And Running is ready to rock and roll, plus with an element of class on his side, he’ll take beating. It was a frustrating Spring prep for him, highlighted by a win in the Premiere where he was going to be second favourite in The Everest but was a race day scratching. He then went to the Nature Strip and was plain behind Private Eye. Been given a good break and his trial work has been enormous. Hard to beat.
3. Private Eye: Private Eye has to be respected. He resumed in the Newmarket, which is a near impossible task, and I thought he ran a super race in defeat behind star filly In Secret, closing off to run fourth. Great second up record and with a liking for Randwick, fast run 1200m, he looks primed to run a ripping race and is a key winning chance.
4. Mazu: Similar to Private Eye, he was set an impossible task when resuming in the Newmarket and I thought he did an excellent job in defeat given he was off the bit a fair way out. Proven big time performer at the track/distance and the more you look at The Everest, he was the best run in the race by a mile. Has to be respected.
5. Paulele: Dry track or bust horse that resumed on a soft track and was a tad plain behind Passive Aggressive but that was over 1000m and he’s a much better 1200m horse. Likely will be back near last in the run but will be strong late…just wants the track to dry out.
6. I Wish I Win: Very good horse, but he can’t come from last and win this surely? He will need a 12/10 ride and while Luke Nolen is a very capable rider, he’s not the sort of rider that can wave a magic wand and produce an out of this world steer. That in mind, I think he’s a risk.
7. Overpass: Kitchen sink job here it looks like based off the gear changes and the trials. Been gelded so he can concentrate on being a race horse. He’ll be near them early…just not sure he has the quality be there the last 200m.
8. Rocketing By: If it was a bone dry track, I could entertain him as a sneaky first four chance because I do think he is flying. But bit of juice in the track has sealed his fate.
9. Shelby Sixtysix: The Wagga Town Plate can’t come quick enough.
10. Giga Kick: Giga Kick…is he ready to take the mantle as the best sprinter in Australia and potentially the world? A win here would likely confirm that. His resumption in the Challenge was incredible, the way he found the line after copping a nasty check early on, his late splits were out of this world. You’d like to think with natural improvement, he’ll take a power of beating.
11. Lofty Strike: His turn is coming at this level. Whether it is here, not sure, but he has been outstanding since day one. Game second to In Secret in the Newmarket, but was he flattered by the lightweight/love affair with the straight course? Perhaps, but he has a booming finish.
12. Mariamia: Got the A1 run in transit to win The Galaxy. Won’t be getting that sort of run here.
13. Passive Aggressive: Ripping mare for Grahame Begg. Put it to Eduardo and got the win, just, in the Challenge. Great racing style and will be stalking Nature Strip. Just the end of 1200m is the knock with her, at this level anyway.
14. Shades Of Rose: Thought she was really plain fresh in The Galaxy and given connections have a slot in The Quokka in two weeks time, a $4 Million race, they won’t be busting a gut trying to win this race.
15. In Secret: I am really keen to oppose this girl. Got a great ride and was dominant in the Newmarket, but this is a different kettle of fish. Back to a bending track, fast run race, likely back in the run from the gate and I do think she is more explosive on top of the ground.
2023 TJ Smith Stakes $100 Betting Strategy:
Carn The Strip. $100 Win on Nature Strip to create history.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5350
Group l Strategy Return: $3809.50
2023 TJ Smith Stakes Odds:
