4/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby day

One of the great days of Australian racing is Derby Day at Flemington and the 2023 edition this Saturday shapes up to be a beauty. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Chris Waller loves to target this race with a nice 3YO and I think the nice 3YO is 5 Influential (Bet Now:  $SP.00), with the push being J Mac booked to ride over some likely types he could have had the choice to steer. Returned as a gelding in a Kembla maiden and made an absolute mess of them after sitting on speed. He’s still doing a bit wrong but he got better as the race went on. He’ll love the surroundings of Flemington, 1600m…it’s all upside with him and I think he is clearly the one to beat.

1 Brave Mead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key/only threat. He comes through a 1400m race at Caulfield two weeks ago where he looked a moral on paper and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and he was too good. Racing like a rise to the mile will suit and this race is very much on the thin side. Class carries him a long way.

9 Just In Time (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice filly for Team Freedman. She debuted over 1200m at Newcastle where the market wanted her with confidence, making her an odds on pop. She landed outside the speed and was always in control, maintaining a safe margin to the line. Bred to appreciate the mile and as stated above, you don’t need to be a star to win this race.

2 Kalapour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well for Kris Lees and should be around the mark. He ran three weeks ago in the St Leger at Randwick where he was a bit flat footed when Land Legend sprinted but he stayed on and was good in defeat behind the UK import. Cleveland came out and won the Moonee Valley Cup so the form has been ticked off and I reckon Flemington will suit.

3 Athabascan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given serious respect for John O’Shea. This gelding is absolutely flying for the stable at the moment and I think you can easily make a case to say he should have won the Moonee Valley Cup but just had no luck late, getting badly held up on the fence when seemingly full of running. He’s in career best form and with room to move here, he rates highly.

1 Ladies Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the best 2000m+ horses NZ has to offer and has run well at 3200m previously so 2500m here should be ideal. He comes here off a Group l win, taking out the Livamol Classic at Hastings, which is their version of the Cox Plate, so you’d like to think that sort of form will stand up pretty well for a race like this. Getting towards peak fitness and up to 2500m, he appeals.

6 Rose Quartz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good record down the straight and is one of the leading contenders. She comes through the Northwood Plume when seemingly having her chance but was far from disgraced and close up in defeat behind She Dances, who won the Chautauqua last Friday night to frank the form. Good record down the straight, she’ll sit off the speed and be strong at the end.

5 Lempicka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Team Keys and has to be respected. She ran two weeks back in the Alinghi where she gave them a start and a beating in an electric win, sprouting wings out wide to win and win well. Not sure how she will go down the straight but the way she is racing at the moment, she can’t be ignored.

7 Willinga Beast (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks primed to run well. Kris Lees trained mare that ran in the Alinghi a fortnight back where she got back in the run and was chasing. She picked up and was wanting to burst through but didn’t really get room to move. Hopefully won’t get held up here so she’ll get every chance to sit off the speed and finish off strong.

J Mac on 5 Triple Missile (Bet Now:  $SP.00), there looks to be clear intent. He resumed at the track/distance in the Gilgai when off the speed and kept chasing in a pretty good return behind the very much in form Star Patrol. Good track/distance record, jockey upgrade, upside…he’s on the short side re betting, but is clearly one of the leading contenders.

4 It’sourtime (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that has a real liking for the straight course. He comes through the Sydney Stakes at Randwick where he just found them a bit sharp when down the track behind a quality mare, I Am Me. Back to where he races best, if there is petrol left in the tank, he is good enough to threaten these.

3 Gravina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a James Cummings trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 1 when close up at the Sunny Coast in the Glasshouse behind Irish Songs. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and with a couple of solid Sydney trials under the belt, I think he’s ready to go, so watch the market.

I am a big fan of 1 Zardozi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and I think she’ll win this and then the Oaks. She is several weeks between runs since the Edward Manifold at Flemington where she was absolutely trucking in the run. Just a matter of getting clear air and once she got it, she dashed and gapped them. No issue with 2000m and she only has to hold her form to take this out.

4 Harlow Mist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly I have plenty of time for and she’s a key chance. She won 3/3 to start her career, including the Oaks Trial. She was given a mini break and ran on the Kenso track at the midweeks at Randwick where you can make a case that she should have won but didn’t get the best of runs in the straight. Big track, 2000m, right camp…all points to her running a positive race with an eye towards Thursday.

7 Subrising (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like the rise to 2000m will suit for Nigel Blackiston. This filly has raced over the mile her past couple, the latest at the midweek program at Caulfield when closing off nicely to finish fourth to Mojave Desert. Not sure she is good enough to win, but she can run top four for sure with an eye towards the Oaks.

1 Shinzo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can easily explode here IMO. Golden Slipper that, on paper, hasn’t set the world on fire in two runs back, but he’s had genuine excuses. First up in the Golden Rose, he was 2/5 lame. He then went to The Everest and was good without much luck behind Think About It. I am not one to get a ‘horn’ over a jumpout/trial, but his jumpout down the straight last week…it was something else and I reckon he’ll make a statement as the best 3YO going around with a win here.

2 Cylinder (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. Can easily make a case to say he should have won the Golden Rose but he was stuck wide no cover, only nabbed late by Militarize. He then went to The Everest where he had the suck run in behind and presented to win but couldn’t quite get there when fifth. Back to his own age, 1200m, runs on the board..rates highly.

16 Nadal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a sleeper at odds. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since the Golden Rose where he got back to near last in the run and while he didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight, he was held on the line behind Militarize. Sizzled in a jumpout here last week and the stable knows what it takes to win this race, so I think he’s a knockout hope.

1 Apulia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Team Hayes after racing last Saturday in The Vase at The Valley. He appreciated a fast speed and was strongest to the line late in drawing clear of Verdad. He gives every indication of eating up 2500m and potentially has room for improvement. Needs to improve, but no reason why he can’t and for mine, he’s the bet.

4 Riff Rocket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) returns to Flemington and with that in mind, he has to be given serious respect. Lot of arrogance about his Super Impose win before going to the Caulfield Classic where he had no chance given the race shape and how slow they went and he couldn’t have gone quicker when second. No issue with 2500m and with a Waller horse, Grand Final…all points to him running well.

8 Gates (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a lightly raced and has a sense of timing. Loved the way he let down to win fresh at Sandown before going to the Caulfield Classic when thrown in the deep end and I thought he found the line with purpose in a strong effort when third. He has more upside than most you’d think and races as if 2500m will be ideal. Knockout hope.

4 Atishu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. She comes through the King Charles at Randwick where she was back and wide throughout on a day where up/in was the spot to be so forgive and forget she went around. Runs prior were super and now back to Mares grade, I think she only runs well here and like the Queen Of The Turf win, she could easily explode.

3 Hope In Your Heart (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare for Kerry Parker and she won’t get a better chance to record a Group l win. She ran three weeks ago in the King Charles where the race shape and track pattern wasn’t to her liking but you had to like the way she found the line late in the piece. Back to Mares grade, more genuine tempo…she deserves a big race win and she gets a great chance.

1 Alcohol Free… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) I reckon she’s back on track. They tried to make her something she’s not, a sprinter. Ran in The Invitation last Saturday and gave a strong kick from on speed when a close up fourth to Espiona. Found positive form, she’ll land on speed and give cheek I am sure. Must for exotics.

8 Munhamek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented animal for Nick Ryan that resumes and you’d assume this guy has Group l aspirations, potentially the Sir Rupert Clarke? He resumes, having not raced since the Glasshouse at the Sunny Coast when producing an end of prep run behind Irish Songs. Jumped out well and despite drawing wide, he’ll get decent cover and be strong late even though he is first up.

12 Kalino (Bet Now:  $SP.00), IMO, is a bomb fresh horse so first up at 1400m looks an ideal set up. He hasn’t raced since Sep 16 over 1400m here when a strong winner, just getting the win over Umgawa, who has been close up/luckless since. Thought he moved quite well in a jumpout here last week and although he may be spotting them a start, he will be strong at the end.

17 Cause For Concern (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a while but Shawn Mathrick has him maintaining his form really well. He comes through the Moonga from a fortnight back where he was left flat footed when Buffalo River pressed the button but he ran through the pain barrier and kept finding the line in a pretty good effort. Think Flemington will suit and he’ll be strong at the end.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Shinzo

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Influential

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Munhamek

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 4

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 12, 17

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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