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The Melbourne Autumn Carnival shifts to Flemington this Saturday for a strong nine event meeting, headlined by the Group l Australian Guineas. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

Australian Guineas 🏆: View the Field for the Australian Guineas

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Race 1. (12:35) Mittys Handicap 1100m

Back Me

If 4 Diamond Effort (Bet Now: $1.70 TOP ODDS) can produce what she displayed first up at Caulfield, she wins again. Was a tad keen in the run just off the speed that day but was still looking to be going well and once Melham found clear air with her, she exploded and was very impressive in winning. You’d like to think there is good improvement to come and should prove hard to beat.

Danger

7 Des Moines (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. Michael Moroney trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since the Winter when running a game fifth here down the straight behind an okay animal in Gytrash, who is now a Group l winner. Second horse was Halvorsen, who is a Group l talent, so the form just reads so well for this. Just want a market push.

Long Shot

3 Miss Norway (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is a John Sadler trained mare that was a drifter late in betting when resuming over 955m at the Valley. Sat on speed and tried hard but just ran out of condition late when third to Epic Grey. Suited back to Mares grade, up in trip, fitter with Jamie Kah to steer. Think she’s a definite key chance here.

Race 2. (13:10) Roy Higgins Quality 2600m

Back Me

Happy to have a throw at the stumps here in the shape of 6 Chouxting The Mob (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS). This bloke comes through the Torney Cup at the Valley in what was a real on pace domination, which didn’t suit this guy, but he kept finding the line and was really good in defeat. Loves Flemington, getting towards peak fitness and should be strong at the end.

Danger

3 High Bridge (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained stayer who has overall been pretty good this time in. Happy to put a line through the last run at Caulfield given stablemate Vaucluse Bay controlled things in front and gave nothing else a look in. Been kept up to the mark with a Werribee trial last week and back to Flemington, he’s a leading chance.

Long Shot

1 Vengeur Masque (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance here. On face value, his resumption at Caulfield was just plain, but given the leader Ryan’s Fender walked them in front, those from the back really had no chance, including this guy. Good record at the track/distance, has class and love the booking of Olly. Hopefully it’s a truly run contest.

Race 3. (13:45) Very Special Kids Plate 1000m

Back Me

2 Chart Buster (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is an Akeed Mofeed colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team that is on debut. He’s had two trials to prepare for start one. Thought the Wodonga trial was outstanding before going to Werribee last week on somewhat shifty ground and was still good but not as impressive. On firm footing here for start one, keen to see him.

Danger

1 Destination (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Any James Cummings interview/article you come across, he always mentions this colt as one of the better ones in the stable when it comes to his juveniles, so he clearly must be showing something at home. Solid win on debut at Kembla on Gong Day. Spelled and resumed in the Lonhro Plate where he didn’t really fire a shot. Giving him another chance.

Long Shot

8 Aquagirl (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a Phillip Stokes trained filly does have the runs on the board given she’s a last start winner at this track/distance on Rapid Racing Day when leading throughout and showing good ticker when challenged to get the job done, running very fast late splits. Looks a real pro and will be around the mark again.

Race 4. (14:20) Frances Tressady Stakes 1400m

Back Me

I think she’s worth a speck here 5 Mamzelle Tess (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). Been a really good mare for Team Corstens for a few seasons now and still maintains a healthy zest for racing. Ran at Caulfield three weeks ago in the Bellmaine and I thought stuck on really well in defeat when fourth to Sylvia’s Mother. 1200m is short of her best, so up to 1400m, I think she’ll take some beating.

Danger

1 Spanish Whisper (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a quality mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Empire Rose when really struggling on the bog surface behind Melody Belle. Dry track at 1400m looks her go in life, which is what she gets here and her two trials to get her ready have been quite good to the eye.

Long Shot

9 Cazabillie (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) has the run under the belt now, and she does have the right racing pattern to give herself a chance here. Was on her when she resumed at Morphettville two weeks ago and tried hard, but was clearly no match for the change up speed produced by a low flying Shamino. Placed in both second up outings, should land on speed and prove quite hard to run down.

Race 5. (14:55) Shaftesbury Avenue Hcp 1400m

Back Me

Looks a perfect race for 1 Age Of Chivalry (Bet Now: $2.05). Paraded like he would need the run when resuming three weeks ago in the Rubiton at Caulfield and that’s how it panned out when midfield to Anaheed, but was ore than sound in defeat. He’ll come right on from that and up to 1400m on his home track, he’ll take some beating.

Danger

6 Blazejowski (Bet Now: $3.40) should be just about at peak fitness now with Greg Eurell. Tough winner down the straight here first up before stepping up to 1400m two weeks ago and while he had his chance, he was far from disgraced behind Galaxy Raider. Has that solid 1400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead for this.

Long Shot

7 Morvada (Bet Now: $4.20) has done a fab job this prep for Peter Jolly. Very game in defeat two back over this track/distance behind Yulong January before turning the tables on that horse in the John Dillon at Caulfield, simply being too good for that gelding, who was the form horse in Victoria. Harder here, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Race 6. (15:30) Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m

Back Me

Hoping sustained speed can come to the fore in the shape of the WA mare 6 Fabergino (Bet Now: $2.60), who makes her Eastern debut for Tiarnna Robertson off the back of a couple of very sharp wins at Ascot over 1000m, the latest coming on Perth Cup Day in the Summer Scorcher at Ascot. Has carried high weights to win previously. Just depends if she handles the straight course.

Danger

4 God Of Thunder (Bet Now: $4.60) is a very talented animal for Team Hawkes that looked a good thing on paper when resuming two weeks ago at Randwick and while he only got there in the last stride, he won which is all that mattered to punters that took the shorts. Better suited here on firmer footing, sits off a fast speed and launches late.

Long Shot

5 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $51.00) is a Tony Noonan trained gelding that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since the Kilmore Cup at Seymour when back in a slowly run affair and did make up ground, but the tempo was against behind Al Passem. Recent trial was good and lone run down the straight, he closed off well behind straight specialist Order Of Command. 1000m is short of his best, but will be strong at the end.

Race 7. (16:10) Australian Guineas 1600m

Back Me

Been firmly in the corner of 4 Catalyst (Bet Now: $2.50) for around two months when it comes to this race and I won’t be dropping off. He and Alligator Blood produced a fabulous battle in the CS Hayes, with the Queenslander getting the nod, just. Gets a 1kg weight swing, has more upside, and I think ridden more conservatively, he’ll be far more effective.

Danger

I keep waiting for 1 Alligator Blood (Bet Now: $3.30) to drop off, but he maintains such a high level, and really, you could make a case that he’s the best horse in Australia at the moment. His CS Hayes win was outstanding and what I loved is that fighting spirit. Catalyst had him cold, but this bloke just kept finding and was too good, just. I think with a bunny to chase, he’ll be even better.

Long Shot

5 Soul Patch (Bet Now: $23.00) is in the mix for sure here I feel. He resumed in the CS Hayes and given the tempo, he was pretty much no winning hope, but loved the way he found the line. Blinkers come off which is interesting but if the tempo is more genuine this time around, you’d have to think he’ll take some holding out late. A win wouldn’t totally shock.

Race 8. (16:50) Blamey Stakes 1600m

Back Me

If 3 Admiral’s Joker (Bet Now: $6.50) is within range on the turn, I think he’s clearly the pony to bet on here. Not sure what happened two weeks ago over 1400m here but he just got a mile out of his ground and spotted them a massive start. Did a remarkable job to get as close as he did. He can sit much closer in the run if need be and the two runs back from a spell indicate that he’s come back in super order.

Danger

2 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained five year old that had trialled up very well prior to resuming in the CF Orr where he got a suck run near the fence and poked his way through the field late for an eye catching fifth to Alabama Express, beaten under two lengths. Is a second up winner and can sit closer in the run if need be.

Long Shot

1 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $27.00) is on the Sydney Cup path again one would assume, so keen to see him resume. Didn’t win during the Spring but gee he ran some ripping races in defeat. Trials/jumpouts have been good leading in without the blinkers. Better suited usually when he has a run or two under the belt, but I reckon he’s come back quite well.

Race 9. (17:30) JRA Trophy 1200m

Back Me

5 Taniko (Bet Now: $4.50) is a talented mare for James Cummings that has a booming finish on her, which she produced at this track/distance two weeks ago, but just missed out on the win when a narrow second to straight track specialist Sirius Suspect. That was her first run in five weeks, so you’d like to think there is more to come.

Danger

Third up from a break, 3 Prezado (Bet Now: $10.00) should be close to peak fitness for the Ellerton/Zahra team. He comes through the Sirius Suspect race from a fortnight back here when on speed and trying out, but couldn’t go with the Saab Hassan runner, but stuck on and was good in defeat in running third. Hard fit now, he should be stronger at the end.

Long Shot

14 I’m Telling Ya (Bet Now: $15.00) is another that loves racing down the straight and while I couldn’t back him to win, he goes in all multiples. Had good specking in the Sirius Suspect race and tried hard nearer the inside, with his condition just running out late. One of his three career wins have come second up, so definitely including him here.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Fabergino

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Age Of Chivalry

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 6 Chouxting The Mob

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 12, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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