20/8/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, McKenzie Stakes day

Moonee Valley will conduct a nine race meeting on Saturday, where there are a couple of feature Stakes races across the program. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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8 Little Miss Kubi (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) looks very good. Cliff Brown trained filly that debuted on testing ground at Moe but gee the way in which she put them away was something to behold, producing sharp change up speed to spank her rivals, clocking the best late splits of the meeting. Confident she measures up.

1 Va Via (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) is dangerous if she can settle closer in the run. Resumed behind Winnertakesitall at The Valley where she was back near last in the run and while she was never really a winning factor, but I loved the way she finished her race off. Hopefully she gets a drag into the race and if so, she can launch late.

Fresh legs and back to 1200m I like for 4 Vagrant (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS). She ran five weeks ago in the Oaklands Plate on the Parks track at Morphettville where she was back in the run and seemingly not handling the track but got clear late and was good to the line when third to He’s Heaven. Likely drifts back but should be strong late.

4 Castillian (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for Patrick Payne. Sharp maiden winner two back at Warracknabeal before going to Flemington two weeks ago and was very good against the race shape behind Berkeley Square, finishing second. Like the rise to 1500m and is proven on wet ground.

5 Blakmax (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while in his first prep but Lindsey Smith has him holding his form quite nicely. He ran fourth to Berkeley Square a fortnight back at Flemington and tried hard, but the race shape was against him and he just whacked away. The solid wet track stats and the fact he’s hard fit has him in the mix.

2 Mr Maestro (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a Kiwi raider who should appreciate a rise to 1500m. Ran over 1200m just under two weeks back at Sandown and worked to the line pretty well without threatening behind a Stakes class horse in Grand Impact. Doubt he wins I think, might want one more, but a first four threat.

3 Lackeen (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) has found winning form and no reason why he can’t hold it. Unlucky two back at Caulfield behind Edison before going to The Valley where Willow gave him an absolute peach on speed, making all the right moves and gave nothing else a look in, winning in dominant fashion. He’s got upside to come and rates highly.

1 Forgot You (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a quality four year old for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the ATC Derby where he couldn’t pick his feet up on the absolute bog behind Hitotsu. Given a break and with a trial and jumpout leading in, as well as a great record at the track, I say he comes here for a forward showing.

10 Cyclone Sally (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) rises sharply in grade, but she’s a swimmer who will roll forward. She ran over the mile here three weeks back against the Mares when on speed and just tired late. Wetter the better for her, so she’s in with a shout at a price.

7 Mimi’s Award (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) won’t get a better chance to get a win in town than here IMO. She’s flying for Team Hayes without winning. Actually won three back but lost it on protest. The two runs since have been strong, the latest here behind Ferago. 3kg claim for Lafferty, soft gate, good wet track stats…all points to her.

9 Royal Crown (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) should appreciate a more genuine tempo. Was keen on him last Wednesday over 2400m at Sandown where the race shape was clearly against him and he just couldn’t sustain the dash late when third to Saint Eustace. More genuine staying test here, he can win for sure.

11 Themoonlitegambler (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is a knockout chance. He ran fourth to Ferago here three weeks back and was good from the back, working home nicely late to run fourth. He is capable of settling much closer in the run and doesn’t mind getting his toe in, so I am not penning him.

Staying at 1200m I hate for 8 Fast Witness (Bet Now: $10.00) but a testing 1200m on wet ground looks ideal for him. He looked gone at Cranbourne last time but he picked up late and surged the final few strides to win. He’s got good upside, heading in the right direction and has hard race fitness.

1 Let’srollthedice (Bet Now: $4.80) is a quality colt for Danny O’Brien that resumes and with a wet track on the cards, he comes right into play as a key winning chance. He did a really good job in the Autumn, highlighted by a VRC Sires win and a third in the Inglis Sires at Randwick behind Fireburn. His recent jumpout was sharp and he loves getting his toe in.

2 El Padrino (Bet Now: $6.00) is the interesting one. Maher/Eustace three year old that resumes and brings with him some mixed form. Just not sure how good it is, but what is telling is that a couple of times last prep, he was smashed in betting, so clearly he was showing something at home. Watch the market.

I think with a heavy track on the cards, I like 7 Nerone (Bet Now: $9.50). Forgiving of the last start at Rosehill because while the official rating was a Soft7, the times suggested it was a Soft5/6, and it was a bit too firm for his liking, but was good late. Back on genuine wet ground, gets Willow back aboard, he’ll do me.

6 Mayfair Spirit (Bet Now: $4.00) is sneaky flying for the Maher/Eustace camp and is just crying out for a drying track. Both runs this time in have come at Caulfield on shifty ground, the latest run a few weeks ago when a closing third to dominant winner Here To Shock. Hard fit now and up to the mile, he’ll take beating, provided the track isn’t too bad.

3 Global Gift (Bet Now: $8.00) loves getting his toe in so he gets conditions to suit. This guy lapped up the mud to win at Sandown last time, leading throughout and was there to be run down but found plenty under pressure to fend them off. Out of trouble on speed, wet ground, he’s hard to beat.

2 Mankayan (Bet Now: $2.20) is hard to beat. Maher/Eustace trained import that ran a few weeks ago at Flemington where he was given a peach by Cartwright and looked the winner when he presented, but he didn’t have the turn of foot that Hezashocka produced and that was the difference in the end, just. Hard fit, class, he’ll do me.

12 Blue Cup (Bet Now: $3.40) is an interesting runner. Formerly with the Maher/Eustace camp, he now finds himself with Matt Cumani, whether the stable thought he isn’t good enough for pursuit better races? Not sure. But the horse does have talent and just missed out on the win at Flemington last time. Wet track should be fine and Kah sticks.

6 Irish Flame (Bet Now: $9.50) is suited up in trip and has a fab record at the track. He ran behind Lackeen three weeks back here and was solid in defeat after doing work from a sticky gate. He is one who loves getting his feet wet and with good upside to come, is a knockout chance.

4 Extremely Lucky (Bet Now: $1.90) is a heading towards the Moir and this will be a good guide as to whether he’ll measure up or not. I am thinking he will. Big win first up in the Lightning at Morphettville, producing a Group l finale to spank them. I Am Bene came out of that race to win so well last Saturday at Caulfield and the stable rarely get it wrong when they bring a good horse to Melbourne.

5 Bella Nipotina (Bet Now: $3.60) is a quality mare for Maher/Eustace that resumes. She hasn’t raced since The Goodwood at Morphettville where she tried hard from just off the speed but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Lombardo. How strong is that form? Not sure, but her trial work has been strong, and she loves The Valley.

8 Mossman Gorge (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Matty Dale trained sprinter that resumes and I think is hard to beat against this lot. He hasn’t raced since Feb 5 at Randwick when chasing a good speed and battling away really well in defeat behind Shadow Crush, who was flying at the time. Given a good break, liked his recent trial and he can sprint well fresh. Just wants the track to not be completely bottomless.

3 Exeter (Bet Now: $12.00) clearly saves his best for The Valley and he does bost a spank job win on wet ground at this track/distance. Ran down the straight at Flemington last time and battled on really well in defeat behind a smart horse in Chain Of Lightning. Back on a track he loves, happy to be in his corner.

10 Chartres (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality four year old that resumes for Matt Laurie and I think is dangerous fresh. He did a good job in the Autumn, highlighted by a strong VOBIS Sires Guineas win at Caulfield. Jumped out super and then trialled up really nicely at Cranbourne behind Passive Aggressive. He’ll only run well.

2 Sacred Palace (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained gelding that is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize. He ran over 1100m at Flemington a fortnight back where he was near last in the run and never really a factor but was good late behind Chain Of Lightning. Like him back up to 1200m and loves getting his toe in.

BEST BET: Race One Number 8 Little Miss Kubi

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Castillian

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 3 Exeter

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 6, 7, 10, 12

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 4, 5

Leg Four: 2, 3, 10, 11

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