Cup Week wraps up at Flemington this Saturday with a cracking nine race card, headlined by the best sprinters in the world going at it in the Darley Classic (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:15) Maribyrnong Plate 1000m
6 King (Bet Now: $3.70) is a beautifully bred colt on debut for James Harron Bloodstock and Team Snowden. This bloke has had a couple of trials in Sydney, both of which were outstanding, and he did look the part in a recent piece of Flemington work down the straight. Looks primed to run a beauty fresh to my eye.
8 Really Swish (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Real Saga colt on debut for the Corstens team. This bloke has been set for this race for a few weeks now and I think he can run a beauty here on debut. Trialled a couple of weeks back on this track over 800m and led all the way to win, and he ran okay time for the morning, doing it under a hold. Looks promising and happy to include him.
1 Bionics (Bet Now: $5.50) is another trained on the track, this one with the Ellerton/Zahra team. This colt debuted in the Inglis Banner on Cox Plate Day where he sat near the speed under McEvoy and looked to travel well into the straight but just found Setsuna too good, and that filly bolted up on Cup Day, so the form reads well and he does have that strong race experience under the belt.
11 Final Choice (Bet Now: $12.00) is a daughter of Nicconi on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This girl has had the one public trial, back in September at Cranbourne, but a couple of recent jump outs have been quite encouraging. Been a lean Cup Week for the stable, but these two year olds of theirs should always be watched closely.
Race 2. (12:50) Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation Plate (90) 2000m
Ordinary race but I think 7 Tiger Tim (Bet Now: $8.00) can win here for the Gelagotis boys. Gave them a spanking two back at Ballarat before racing on Geelong Cup Day where he was given an odd steer by Yendall and really had no hope after that when finishing down the track behind Zilbiyr. With a more conservative ride here, he should take some beating.
2 Tarquin (Bet Now: $5.00) is a quality animal for the Godolphin camp and James Cummings who comes through the Moe Cup where he sat back in a slowly run affair before Count Da Vinci dashed 600m out and he was left flat footed, but his last 250m was more than sound. Getting towards peak fitness now and he does have a touch of class/quality about him.
1 Kourkam (Bet Now: $6.50) is another horse who tends to save his best for Flemington and fourth up from a break, he should just about be ready fitness wise. He was given every chance over the 1950m on the Parks track at Morphettville last time out but he just appeared to run out of condition the final 100m when third to Temps Voleur. He’ll appreciate 2000m on a big track and stable has had a decent enough Cup Week to date.
4 Lucques (Bet Now: $26.00) could be an improver back to Flemington but it’s drawing a long bow. Ran in the Hamilton Cup last time out and didn’t really do much behind Bling Dynasty but keep in mind that race wasn’t run quick and this guy has no turn of foot. Could be a slog here to the line, and he is proven at Flemington.
Race 3. (13:30) Melbourne's Own 3AW Trophy (96) 1600m
1 Fastnet Tempest (Bet Now: $3.20 BOOSTED ODDS) looked all over a winner for mine last time out in the Sale Cup, and he looked as if he’d go past Moss ‘N’ Dale, but that tough nut proved too good and too tough. This horse should be hard fit now and class wise, he has most of these covered. Pretty keen to bet up on hm in this event.
4 Jacquinot Bay (Bet Now: $5.50) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but I think up in trip and down in grade, he can go close here. Far from disgraced I thought in the Toorak behind Tosen Stardom when getting back and running on late without much luck in the straight. He’ll love the Flemington mile given he is a big time performer here.
2 Man Of His Word (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Bruce Hill trained galloper from the Gold Coast who is an enigma in the sense he sometimes can’t put it all together, but when he does, he’s talented. Happy to overlook last start at Randwick given the tempo wasn’t quick, he was on a wet track and was nearer the inside…all three are negatives. Gets the opposite of those three negatives here.
8 Aurum Spirit (Bet Now: $26.00) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but gee he is racing well. Thought he did a really good job on Geelong Cup Day behind Astro Casttro given they crawled in that race and it wasn’t ideal to be out the back that afternoon. Has run some good races here before, draws to get a suck run…doubt he wins, but a must for multiples.
Race 4. (14:10) Sensis Digital Trophy 1400m
7 Lite’n My Veins (Bet Now: $3.10) is a former Perth mare that had her first run for the Purcell team in the italktravel on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield and it was just an utter nightmare if you were on her. Just had no luck at all in the straight when bolting and you could make a case she should have beaten Rich Charm, and that horse blew them away on Derby Day.
2 Lord Aspen (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very good Adelaide galloper for the Mick Huxtable yard who won this race last year and appears to be going well enough to defend his title.Ran a fortnight back over 1200m at Morphettville where he took his time to knuckle down but his last 100m was excellent and he surged hard to win. Has a very good record at Flemington and should go close.
10 Ruettiger (Bet Now: $9.50) rises to 1400m after racing over 1200m at the Valley on Manikato night where he got well back off the pace but had to like the way he closed off to run a close up fourth to Suspense, admittedly in a bunched finish. This horse is a nightmare, but with cover from the draw, he can launch late.
14 Give Us A Go (Bet Now: $17.00) ran well on Cup Week last year at massive odds and I think she can run well here at odds again. She ran over 1500m at the Valley on Manikato Night and stuck on okay in a race that didn’t really suit her racing style when fourth to Black Sheep. Go back three runs and she ran a ripper in the Let’s Elope. On that run, a big chance here.
Race 5. (14:50) Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m
1 Qewy (Bet Now: $3.00) gets the nod for me. Outstanding win in the Bendigo Cup I thought. Was off the bit around 1000m out and under constant niggle from McEvoy but like the quality horse he is, he just kept finding under pressure and on the line was comfortably holding Kiwia. I think he holds that horse again and that does look the main form race.
3 Kiwia (Bet Now: $5.00) was given an absolute peach from Lane in the Bendigo Cup, stalking Qewy wherever it went and once he popped out at the top of the straight, it looked game over, but Qewy just packed too many punches and was strong on the line, holding Kiwia. Not sure how Kiwia turns the tables on face value, but it is a horse race and anything can happen.
4 Vengeur Masque (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Mike Moroney trained stayer who is in ripping form at the moment. Won the Geelong Cup in tough fashion before going to the Lexus last week where he certainly got level with Cismontane, but that horse just kicked back and proved too good. Ran well in this race last year and should do the same in 2017.
10 Wheal Leisure (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through the Geelong Cup where she was well backed late at near double figure odds and the move nearly came off but she just had too much to do from the back on a day where those near the speed/rail were advantaged. Flemington 2600m does look ideal and if she is close enough on the turn, she’s certainly good enough.
Race 6. (15:30) 7News Matriarch Stakes 2000m
1 Heavens Above (Bet Now: $6.50) is a classy mare for Tim Martin who should be forgiven for her run in the Myer last Saturday. Like most out the back, she just had no chance of making up ground given the tempo of the race, but her splits late when clear were outstanding. They said immediately post race they’d back up and she does have the class factor.
10 Savapinski (Bet Now: $5.50) is a ripping mare for the Waterhouse/Bott yard who has been up a while but continues to race well. Had to chase the hot speed set by Lubiton in the Tesio and was off the bit before the turn, but stuck on really well to run second to that mare. Untried beyond the mile, but how can you ignore anything this stable is saddling up at the moment, plus she maps super.
2 Prompt Response (Bet Now: $5.50) is on the quick back up for the Waterhouse/Bott team after racing in the Myer last Saturday and I thought her effort to run third was enormous. Wide no cover throughout, and yes they went slow, but still, that’s a fair effort around Flemington. Maps super here and though a query at 2000m, how can you ignore anything the stable is saddling up at the moment.
4 Consommateur (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Mick Kent trained mare who is a horse who I will definitely have something on each way. Run in the Tesio was very good I thought against the bias. Just looked a run short but her splits were very good until the 200m when condition gave out. This looks a target race for her and this stable is one of the best in these second tier staying contests.
Race 7. (16:10) Darley Classic 1200m
2 Redzel (Bet Now: $4.50 ODDS BOOST) is just the bombproof one out of this lot at the highest level so have to go his way. Hasn’t raced since scoring a famous win in the Everest, sitting on speed throughout and kicking hard when required under McEvoy. Two negatives: Bias helped him and the form out of it has been awful. The positives are that he is a proven straight performer, he has fresh legs and his trial here was great.
I think you just have to include 1 Chautauqua (Bet Now: $6.50 ODDS BOOST). His efforts this Spring have been unbelievable really given the way the Sydney tracks have been playing. He just has that awful racing pattern of being disinterested early and coming off the bit a fair way out. Seems to have taken no harm from the Manikato drama and he is the worlds highest rated sprinter.
7 Redkirk Warrior (Bet Now: $11.00 ODDS BOOST) won like s star in the Bobbie Lewis here two starts ago before a pretty flat run in The Everest and was probably the disappointment of the race. Returns to the Flemington straight which he has shown to like and on class he is right up there in the sprinting ranks in Aus imo. Happy to forgive the Sydney run and all starts before that say he will be very hard to beat in this.
He’s a tease, but 10 Spieth (Bet Now: $41.00 ODDS BOOST) does look the overs at around $31+. Didn’t run too bad in the Manikato I thought. Didn’t appear entirely happy on the tight track but his last bit was sound. Should have won this race last year. Is he going as well 12 months on? No, but Rawiller is back on and he draws to stalk and have last say.
Race 8. (16:55) Emirates Stakes 2000m
7 Folkswood (Bet Now: $6.00 ODDS BOOST) is a classy animal for the Charlie Appleby team. Brilliant winner of the Cranbourne Cup before going to the Cox Plate where he ran a mighty race when third to Winx after doing work near the speed. Has he been Winxed? Humidor seemed to be in the Melbourne Cup. But, Appleby is too good of a trainer to ignore.
4 Tosen Stardom (Bet Now: $11.00 ODDS BOOST) i thought raced well in the Kennedy Mile despite jumping as favourite and never really threatening. They went slow in that race which meant it was tough to make any ground and he hit the line strong enough to warrant having him here. Steps up the 2000m which is a bit of a query as he hasn’t done so in awhile but everything suggests he will get the distance and this is a very winnable race.
15 Cliff’s Edge (Bet Now: $8.00 ODDS BOOST) is a very good three year old for the Weir camp who looks beautifully in here at the weights. Toughed it out strongly in the Vase a fortnight back behind Aloisia. My worry is that after that race, stable said they’d spell. So, has he recovered brilliantly to reconsider, or are they having a throw at the stumps with no Winx? Time will tell.
2 It’s Somewhat (Bet Now: $26.00 ODDS BOOST) is slowly getting towards peak fitness now for James Cummings. He was confidently backed to win the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day but just didn’t have the turn of foot in a brutally run affair when third to Lucky Hussler. third up at 2000m looks ideal, he has class and he was such an impressive winner third up last prep.
Race 9. (17:45) Emirates Airline Handicap 1400m
5 Tamasa (Bet Now: $5.00) is a very exciting prospect for the Weir team. I think with time he could be a Group l horse. Sat on a hot speed on debut at the Bool and spanked them before racing on Bendigo Cup Day last Wednesday where he looked in awful trouble getting the run but once he got clear, he savaged the line and won. Think he’ll eat up the Flemington 1400m here and I’m quite keen on him.
4 Andaz (Bet Now: $3.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old on the seven day back up after racing in the Coolmore last Saturday where he was probably outclassed on form but he defied the odds and worked home strongly I thought behind Merchant Navy. I think the rise to 1400m and back around a bend are big ticks. Key threat for sure.
6 Tezlah (Bet Now: $12.00) is a progressive looking type for the Smerdon team who scored a sharp win last Friday night at the Valley over 1200m, charging home from the back to win with class and authority. Didn’t beat much, but the manner in which he did tells me he has the upside and scope to match it with some of these.
I could easily make a case here for 12 Surjin (Bet Now: $23.00) at massive odds. He was three weeks between runs, 1600m back to 1200m, when racing on Cox Plate Day where the track pattern/tempo was against him but he clocked some of the fastest splits late despite running second last. Flemington 1400m looks perfect and he’ll be getting a bet each way with my money.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Qewy
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Redzel
VALUE: Race Six Number 1 Heavens Above
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 13, 15
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 6, 12
$50 Investment= 6.66% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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