The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday, headlined by the Belmont Newmarket (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (14:28) Happy 70th Birthday Colin Brown Plate 1000m
9 Gaintree (Bet Now: $SP.00) should take a power of beating. Simon Miller trained filly that resumes, having not raced since Feb 28 when debuting at Ascot and was good late behind Aurum Belle. Looks to have trialled up super and think she’ll be too good for these.
1 Properata (Bet Now: $3.00) was an impressive first up winner last Wednesday at this track/distance. He sat off speed before angling into clear air and knuckled down with purpose to win and win well. Off that effort, he commands respect.
2 Burning Bridges (Bet Now: $6.00) was plain when resuming two weeks back at this track/distance, landing on speed and tried hard but felt the pinch late. I think with a more patient steer, he can run a much improved race.
Race 2. (15:06) Ted Mcauliffe Hcp (Rs0ly) 1400m
8 I Love Ya Money (Bet Now: $3.50) looks a relatively straight bat play. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago, getting off speed and kept chasing in a good effort in defeat behind Supido Express. Pike takes over, he’ll do me.
2 Champagne Crusader (Bet Now: $11.00) should be better for the first up run, which came over 1200m here, getting the suck run in behind and tried hard but first up, condition just gave out. Fitter, kind map in his corner, he only runs well.
10 Secret Identity (Bet Now: $31.00) comes back to 1400m after racing over the mile two weeks back here. He got off speed and was good late without threatening behind Strapping Prophet. Back to 1400m is fine, he’ll be strong late…just depends what start he concedes.
Race 3. (15:44) George Towton Hcp (66+) 2200m
Hard to get away from 3 With Discretion (Bet Now: $1.85). He gave them a start and a proper beating two weeks ago here, settling near last before unwinding a brilliant finale to win and win well. He was 1400m to 2100m there so he has that run under the belt and should be better for it. I think good luck beating him.
2 Our Mate Archie (Bet Now: $9.00) steps up in trip after racing over 1675m at Bunbury last Thursday where I thought ZJP slaughtered him. Just got way too far back in the run, was very wide on the turn…launched late to just miss. If he handles the trip, he’ll take holding out.
7 Decision Maker (Bet Now: $18.00) ran down the track behind With Discretion two weeks back but did have excuses, getting back near last and was held up at times before working to the line okay. Doubt he wins but runs top four.
Race 4. (16:21) Robert Burns Snr Hcp (Rs1mw) 1000m
Landed with 3 Too Darn Stormy (Bet Now: $5.00). Talented four year old that resumes for Dan Morton, having not raced since May 2 when good from off speed behind Auto Cruise over 1400m at Ascot. 1000m is on the short side but ability wise is the best horse in the race and will be strong late.
4 Last Stylebender (Bet Now: $9.00) is several weeks between runs since a placing at this track/distance, leading and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through when third to Bonnie Lad. 1000m specialist, good racing style, he commands respect.
2 Niccimota (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Jim Taylor trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, with her last run coming on May 16 over this track/distance when on speed and tired late behind Xentaro, who was flying at the time. Tricky gate but will press forward and give cheek.
Race 5. (17:00) Jj Kelly Hcp (72+) 1600m
8 Be Bardot (Bet Now: $35.00) steps up to the mile after resuming over 1400m two weeks ago here. She got back to near last in the run and while she was never a winning threat, she made up headway and was far from disgraced. Better set up here and rising in trip, I think she’ll run really well.
10 Ginger Green (Bet Now: $12.00) is in the mix after a second at this track/distance where he had a suck run in behind and was held up at times. He got clear and kept chasing in a pretty good effort in defeat. Hard fit now, he commands respect.
9 The Merryman (Bet Now: $35.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here. He lobbed into a pretty good spot in transit but didn’t find much and was quite plain in the straight. Hard fit now, I am not dismissing him.
Race 6. (17:35) Angus Armanasco Hcp (Rs1mw) 1400m
4 Supido Express (Bet Now: $20.00) has found winning form and he can go on with it. Big win two weeks ago at this track/distance, giving his rivals a start and a beating in an impressive performance. His confidence is up, he maps to settle closer, he’ll take beating.
8 Cinque Stelle (Bet Now: $3.70) steps up to 1400m after a win over 1100m last Thursday at Bunbury, getting into a decent spot in transit before being presented clear air and away she went to win and win well. 1400m should be fine, she is in the mix.
2 Deltason (Bet Now: $10.00) ran second over this track/distance two weeks back, getting into a decent spot off speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite get there when second to Supido Express. Tricky gate but with luck, is certainly dangerous.
Race 7. (18:15) Belmont Newmarket Hcp (L) 1200m
I think you have to give 9 Jaz Session (Bet Now: $26.00) another chance. She was horrendous in the HG Bolton Sprint but she was gone 600m out and post race the vet found her to be making respiratory noises. Total forgive and with a kind map, I think she’ll run well at odds.
2 Snowdome (Bet Now: $7.00) is in the mix. He ran second in the HG Bolton Sprint, landing on speed and he tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite see it through, nabbed late by Fluro Neuro. Hard fit, good racing style, he’ll take beating.
12 Rokanori (Bet Now: $18.00) comes back to 1200m after racing lasy Saturday over 1400m here, getting a fair way out of his ground but was good late in the piece. He’ll likely be spotting them a start but be launching late.
Race 8. (18:55) Congrats Michael Grantham - Leading Trainer 25/26 (66+) 1200m
1200m is on the short side for 3 Asif (Bet Now: $4.50) but off his trials, I think he is here to play. Her last run was April 1 at Ascot over the mile, trying hard from off speed but was wide for most of the race and tired late. He does run well fresh and his recent trial win at Lark Hill was quite good.
4 Zourun Run (Bet Now: $4.20) is flying for Neville Parnham and takes beating after a win over 1400m a fortnight back, getting the A1 run before angling for clear air and let down strongly to get the job done. Back to 1200m is fine, she’s hard to beat.
7 Eliteone (Bet Now: $20.00) comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m three weeks back here. He got into a decent spot in transit but just whacked in the run to the line behind Mt Shirataku. Like him back in trip, he’s a first four threat.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 With Discretion
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 9 Gaintree
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Jaz Session
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg Three: 2, 6, 9, 12, 13
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 7
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
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