Day Two of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday is shaping up to be one of the race meetings of the year, highlighted of course by a cracking line up in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (11:35) Fernhill Mile 1600m
3 Azaly (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) looks a near good thing IMO. Son of Dundeel for the Hayes/Dabernig stable that debuted in a Kilmore maiden where he didn’t look 100% happy on the tricky track but once he balanced up, he was very good late in a race that rated quite well. Trialled behind Ole Kirk and looked pretty good to my eye so keen to see him here on the bigger track.
1 Postcode (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is a WaterBott trained colt that is on the seven day back up after winning last Saturday at Hakwesbury on testing ground. Did he beat much? No, but he lumped 62kg on a heavy track, led throughout and ran decent time. Should be okay at 1600m, looks the leader and stable has had a fab Autumn Carnival. Firmer footing will certainly help this guy.
8 Al Sahara (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a Pride Of Dubai filly for John Sargent that debuted in a 2YO race at Muswellbrook and really liked the way she finished her race off behind Zeftabrook, who ticked that form off when winning the Wellington Boot on Sunday. This filly trialled against proper horse flesh on the Kenso track and didn’t look too bad at all behind Miss Siska.
Race 2. (12:10) Sth Pacific Classic 1400m
Think he’s a good gamble here 2 Hilo (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS). Three weeks between runs for James Cummings since contesting the Darby Munro where he was 1250m back to 1200m and just lacked the turn of foot to put them away but was more than sound in defeat when a close up third to California Zimbol. Now third up at 1400m, he’s really hard to beat.
If you knew for certain 1 Yao Dash (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) would bring his best he’d be winning, simple as that. The yard experts didn’t like him at all when he paraded prior to the Fireball but despite that was well supported. He was awful behind Villami and didn’t fire a shot at all. Sent back to the trials and looked much better. Clark on, looks the leader and at his best, clearly the one to beat.
7 Knickpoint (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained colt that has started favourite in five of his six career outings to date, so that tells you that the stable has got a wrap on him. Probably hasn’t quite lived up to the potential but the form around him isn’t too bad. Looked to get every chance last start in the Canberra Guineas when fourth but a tick over trial since was excellent and the Winkers go on to sharpen him up.
Race 3. (12:45) Provincial Champions 1400m
2 Through The Cracks (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) will need luck in running from the gate but if the track is playing fair, I think he goes very close. Comes through a Newcastle Qualifier where he got back to near last in the run and launched late to just miss out on picking up Asharani. Loved the way he closed off in a trial behind Happy Clapper and appears spot on for this race.
10 Asharani (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks the one to beat on form. Very good here first up behind Trumbull over 1200m before remaining at the trip in a Qualifier at Newcastle and under a lovely steer from Avdulla, the mare was far too good despite a narrow margin. Has had the two 1200m runs under the belt and now up to 1400m, she’s very likeable.
13 Oakfield Missile (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is the knockout chance. Contested a Newcastle Qualifier over 1400m when well backed at odds. Sat off a good speed before easing wider and finishing right over the top to get the job done. Kept up to the mark with a trial, the same one that Through The Cracks contested. She’ll get back and finish strong.
Race 4. (13:20) Percy Sykes Stakes 1200m
If the track does dry out, 1 Dame Giselle (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) has to be one of the leading chances. Yes, she’s been good in all three runs this time in, but clearly she’s a filly who races best on top of the ground and if you like her, hopefully the track does get to a Soft5/better. Slipper run was full of merit and back to her own age/sex, she’s clearly one of the key chances.
Farnan, being the Slipper winner, will win 2YO of the year, but really, you could make a strong case that 2 Away Game (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) should get the gong. Won the Magic Millions in impressive style, a mighty fourth in the Blue Diamond and of course ran a super second in the Slipper to Farnan. You just keep waiting for her to drop off but she maintains such a high level. The one to beat on form.
I think 13 Chianti (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) can definitely measure up here. She’s been in my blackbook for months since her trials in the Spring. Finally debuted at the midweeks at Warwick Farm where she was a bit raw and new to the caper but gee she was impressive when clear and let down under Bowman. Good test here, but think she’s above average and tick over trial at Newcastle was excellent.
Race 5. (13:55) Arrowfield 3yo Sprint 1200m
We’re getting a good price about 2 Eleven Eleven (Bet Now: $12.00) and I’m a bit surprised by that given the form he has around him, mainly the run of placings he has behind Alligator Blood, notably the Magic Millions where he did pushed the Queensland star for a few strides. That is A1 form for 3YO’s, trial was good and with the gate, can see Nash getting alongside Anaheed and getting the drag over.
Forgive a horse for one poor run with 1 Cosmic Force (Bet Now: $3.00). Run of the day first up in the Fireball behind Villami before going to the Galaxy when backed as if unbeatable but found absolutely nothing in the straight in a horrible performance. Back to his own age and back on firmer footing, has to be given another chance.
8 Human Nature (Bet Now: $35.00) is one I’d be including in wider multiples. He was outstanding in defeat last time at Mornington, pouring the pressure on in front outside the speed. The leader dropped back on the turn, leaving this guy a sitting shot, and really, he was only caught the final stride by Sizzlefly, who bolted up last Saturday at Morphettville. Trial since was good and does no work from the gate.
Race 6. (14:30) Australian Oaks 2400m
The one on the up with upside/progression is 4 Colette (Bet Now: $3.20). Could I back her? $3/thereabouts, I’m saying no, but can’t tip against her. The Adrian Knox win last Saturday was dominant and just loved the way she went through her gears, savaging the line to win well. Off that, 2400m should fine and looks the one to beat.
The class of 1 Probabeel (Bet Now: $3.50) will carry her a long way towards victory. Given a super steer in the Vinery Stud two weeks ago, but with that, it was against her normal pattern, which left her without the petrol tickets needed to get up and win. Still, a very good effort. I think if she is to win, she needs to be ridden cold and saved for the final 600m.
7 Toffee Tongue (Bet Now: $12.00) ran second to Colette in the Adrian Knox and the run was very good I thought. Clearly no match for that filly, but did hit the line strongly from well back, so 2400m should be fine for her, and with the gate, she does no work in the run. From a price angle, bit surprised that Colette is as short as she is compared to this filly, who is nearly touching $20.
Race 7. (15:15) Sydney Cup 3200m
2 Young Rascal (Bet Now: $2.40) looks the obvious. William Haggas trained stayer that was outstanding when winning the Manion Cup. Loved the way he toughed it out because Mugatoo was there to beat him, but that English staying prowess really came to the fore late and he was too good. Form out of that has been good and he’ll love two miles. One to beat, albeit short enough in the market.
The Chairmans into the Sydney Cup has been a decent form reference in recent years so with that in mind, I am respecting 4 Raheen House (Bet Now: $7.00), who did win the Chairmans last Saturday in what was a real slog to the line, with his staying prowess coming to the fore under a lovely ride from Bowman. He’ll eat up two miles, hard fit and now has winning form.
11 Sweet Thomas (Bet Now: $26.00) is one I could easily have something very small on each way at the big odds. Was down the track behind Young Rascal in the Manion Cup but IMO, he was ridden upside down against his pattern when on speed. Ridden with cover in a trial and gee he moved well. Two runs prior were strong, 3200m no issue and for a horse that’ll likely start triple figures, I’ll be having something small each way.
Race 8. (15:55) Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m
If we get a dry-ish track here, Soft5 at worst, 1 Danon Premium (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the winner. One of the best gallopers currently in Japan that comes here purely for this race. Just have to look at his Japanese form to drool over his chances here. A second to Almond Eye, a second to Indy Champ and was the last horse to beat Lys Gracieux in Japan. Track dries up, he’s the winner I think.
2 Addeybb (Bet Now: $3.80) is a world class middle distance horse that was given a peach ride in front from Tom Marquand to take out the Ranvet. Led throughout and pushed the button to perfection, turning it into a 600m dash and he was just too tough for Verry Elleegant, and we saw what she did in the Tancred, so that form clearly reads well. Just wants the track to remain in having serious give in it.
5 Vow And Declare (Bet Now: $19.00) looks to be flying. The Melbourne Cup winner resumed in the Australian Cup and was mighty in defeat behind Fifty Stars, finishing a close up third. Worked between races two weeks ago at Bendigo and looked outstanding in that piece of work. He showed first up that he can well and truly measure up to WFA company.
Race 9. (16:35) Coolmore Legacy Stakes 1600m
Forgive a horse for a below par run and will be doing that with 5 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $20.00). On face value, she was disappointing in the Emancipation, but she did have the stone bruise leading into the Coolmore so perhaps needed that hitout two weeks ago, and it was a wet track, something she hates, so touch wood, we get a firmer deck, she gets the soft gate and her best form is clearly at Randwick.
17 Funstar (Bet Now: $2.80) is the big query here. On face value, she was disappointing in the Vinery Stud as a short priced elect, but keep in mind she did pull quite hard in the run and was forced to sit wide for the final 800m-1000m and that burn just told on her late. Like her back to 1600m…just depends what is left in the tank because that run could well have been a gut buster.
Very wary of 4 Miss Siska (Bet Now: $14.00) for Grahame Begg. Won her opening two runs for the prep in impressive fashion before being outclassed in the Australian Cup. She’s a mare who is dynamic with fresh legs and looked very good in a trial last week. Gets Aussie Tom aboard and from gate one, should sit handy and be a leading chance.
Race 10. (17:10) Sapphire Stakes 1200m
9 Manicure (Bet Now: $8.50) should be spot on for this assignment. Was keen on her first up in the Star Kingdom two weeks ago and loomed to win but her condition just gave out late when second to Vegadaze. She was parading as if she would improve big time with the run and now she has that under the belt, she’s hard to beat here.
8 Madam Rouge (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Chris Waller trained mare that had trialled up enormous prior to resuming in the Galaxy where she seemingly got a good run in transit and had her chance behind I Am Excited. Back to Mares grade, fitter and up to 1200m, she deserves another chance because the trials were too good to ignore off one run.
14 Bangkok (Bet Now: $18.00) is flying for Allan Denham and would be a clear top pick if this track was bottomless. Comes through the Birthday Card from three weeks ago where she was outstanding late and a little unlucky when a fast finishing third to Miss Exfactor. Hard fit now and will love a truly run Randwick 1200m. Hard to beat.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Danon Premium
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Azaly
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Sweet Deal
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 9, 17
Leg Four: 3, 8, 9, 14
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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