11/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Adelaide Cup day

The Adelaide Racing Carnival starts to warm up on Monday at Morphettville with an excellent card assembled for Adelaide Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

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Back Me: I think first up is the time to bet on 3 Despatch (Bet Now: $3.60 PROMO ODDS). He can be a hard horse to catch for Tony McEvoy, but 2/3 career wins have come first up and all three career wins have come over the five furlongs. Hasn’t raced since June last year but has looked very sharp in a couple of trials, winning them both impressively with something in reserve. Hopefully he brings his best.

7 Tiara Star (Bet Now: $10.00 PROMO ODDS) is a daughter of Congrats for Will Clarken that hasn’t raced since Australia Day at Caulfield where she was on speed and looked to have her chance behind Miss Norway but perhaps she was a tired horse then after a pretty good campaign. Comes here with no trials under the belt, but does have residual fitness and can produce a decent turn of foot when cuddled and saved for the straight.

11 Del Piero (Bet Now: $34.00 PROMO ODDS) will appreciate a fast speed and could have last look with luck. Ran over 955m at the Valley last time where he got a fair way out of his ground but worked home well late behind Makahu Boy. Yendall on, gate one, he draws to stalk a likely strong tempo and up to 1050m no issue for this Jarrod McLean galloper. Has to be a knockout chance.

Have to butter up on 10 Etna (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS). I think he’s going really well for Aaron Purcell but just hasn’t found the right race to break the Aussie duck. I think he gets his chance here. Hasn’t raced since Feb 1 at the Valley when running on okay without threatening behind Mosh Music, who has won again since. He’s shown good promise since coming to Australia and this does look a very winnable race.

6 Lieder (Bet Now: $5.00 PROMO ODDS) looks to be going okay for the Michael Hickmott stable but he’s just finding it hard to get a win on the board. Market said last start that the win would be on the cards but he was a bit plain in the straight I thought when third to Lynch Mob after getting every chance near the speed. He’s a hard horse to catch but at his best, he’d just about be beating these.

9 Pass The Glass (Bet Now: $14.00 PROMO ODDS) is a Sue Jaensch trained mare in really good form at the moment. Lovely ride from Jeff Maund got her the win in the Naracoorte Cup last time, sitting near the speed before being clicked up before the turn, taking the lead and dashing clear late. Two times she has raced at the 2000m for the two wins. Been a while since she has run well in town but she gets her chance here.

1 Yulong Knight (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS) the one to beat for me. Former Irish galloper making his Australian debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. The form overseas was nothing to jump up and down about, but it’s handy enough. Now with Lindsay Park, he looked very sharp in a Wodonga trial win in good time. Market will be the guide, but if he’s ready, he should run well against these.

6 Caraluisa (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS) is a Macdonald/Gluyas trained filly who is in good form at the moment. Ran over 1200m on the course proper last time where she landed on speed and looked to travel, hitting the front for a brief moment but the class and finale of Kenyan Wonder was too much, but she ran her usual honest race. Not a horse of that class here and I think 1200m suits again.

11 Galahad Guru (Bet Now: $21.00 PROMO ODDS) is a son of Camelot resuming for the Macdonald/Gluyas stable. This bloke hasn’t raced since the Spring when being far from disgraced in the Hill Smith over 1800m here behind Burn Off, with second being Stars Of Carrum, and we saw what he did on Cox Plate Day, so that form reads alright. 1200m clearly short of his best, but he’ll be charging late.

Big fan of 1 The Executioner (Bet Now: $4.20 PROMO ODDS) for the Busuttin/Young team. A stunning debut it was on the Parks track just over two weeks ago. Was very tardy away, settling near last off a moderate tempo and would need to produce near run of the day stuff to win, and that’s exactly what she did, with some of the best late splits of the meeting ensuring she spanked her rivals on debut. Looks above average and keen on her here.

8 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $6.00 PROMO ODDS) is a daughter of Krupt for the Ryan Balfour stable who is nearing a win I think. Sat near the speed in the Cinderella last Saturday where she did work to get there but looked to travel well. Gave a good kick when asked by Parish but just found the well supported Lady Naturaliste too good on the day. Her best chance of winning IMO is ridden cold and have last look.

2 Vinco (Bet Now: $34.00 PROMO ODDS) is a Tony McEvoy trained colt who looks to be getting better with racing. Stubby took bad luck out of the occasion at Gawler last time in a maiden, sending him to the front, controlling things beautifully from the front and giving nothing else a look in, leading all the way to win impressively. Harder here, but he’s heading in the right direction.

6 Pretty Glass (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Sue Jaensch trained mare who is back at the races. She hasn’t raced since January 12 at Gawler (Metro) where she was given every chance outside the speed from Jamie Kah but she couldn’t quite get past the then low flying Table Of Wisdom. She’s a really good fresh horse, 1200m no issue and does have a touch of class/quality about her. Key horse here for sure.

He hasn’t done much in a while but gee this race sets up well for 3 El Sicario (Bet Now: $4.50) to bounce back. Was okay first up behind Mystyko before racing down the Flemington straight and running poorly behind Intuition after being on speed. Looks to lead for fun here and is a winner at this track, so an improved showing wouldn’t surprise…current price though of around $4/thereabouts is too short though.

7 Street Life (Bet Now: $6.50) doesn’t win out of turn but usually runs an honest race. He has been freshened up since racing on Australia Day where he ran a solid fourth to the well performed Kemalpasa, beaten a few lengths but far from disgraced. He does seem to be a really good horse when produced with fresh legs and 1200m fresh tells me the work has been put in for him to run well.

Have to give 9 Mantastic (Bet Now: $9.00) another chance. First run for the Waller camp came over 1400m here two weeks ago and it was just a run I thought but considering the track pattern of the day, I thought the run was better than what it first looked behind Streets Of Avalon, who ran well last Saturday to tick that form off. Would love him over further, but he’s got enough quality to figure here.

First look at the mile and significantly up in grade, but really have to like the way 10 Amberdi (Bet Now: $5.00) is going about it. Impressive winner over 1400m on the Parks track last time. Took a little while to get into her work but once she balanced up, she surged and proved much too good. Stable doesn’t normally throw them in the deep end like this, so respect that fact. She’s handy and can measure up if she gets things to suit.

This is D-Day for 1 Mighty Boss (Bet Now: $7.50) surely. To be fair, he’s done sweet FA since winning the Caulfield Guineas in 2017 but his two runs back from a spell have been encouraging, the latest in the Blamey when fourth to Fifty Stars. Significant drop in depth and has paid the price by carrying 60kg, but gets a soft gate and will do no work…gets his chance.

If he runs the two miles out well enough, 3 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $3.60) should be winning. It was hard not to be impressed by his win in the Lord Reims where he let it all unfold in front of him before Winks crept forward to get near the speed on the turn and he waited to perfection before pushing the button and the race was over in a couple of strides. Just needs to run 3200m and he’ll be winning.

4 Naval Warfare (Bet Now: $5.50) chased home a pretty smart horse at Flemington last time out albeit beaten a distance. Chris Waller trained so a massive tick there and he always tries his best and in what is a pretty weak Adelaide Cup field should be right in the finish if he can get a bit of luck from the inside barrier.

10 Top Of The Range (Bet Now: $18.00) looks to be going well for Michael Moroney. He had the tick over run last Saturday in the Roy Higgins at Flemington where he really had no hope given the tempo of the race but he stuck to the task well behind Schabau. 3200m should be no issue for him, he’ll get out the back and work home, with Willie Pike taking the steer, so he’ll be popular.

5 Jumbo Prince (Bet Now: $10.00) is a fascinating runner. Formerly with Michael Nolan in Toowoomba, the horse is now with Jarrod McLean. Hasn’t raced since the Grafton Cup last year when down the track behind First Crush. Hasn’t raced in 34 weeks, hasn’t won in 99 weeks, but looked forward in a recent Ternag jumpout. Gate one…can sprint well fresh…a win wouldn’t entirely shock.

2 Casno Wizard (Bet Now: $9.00) at his best, is the best horse in this race for mine, clearly. Just depends where he is at. Hasn’t raced since the Christmas Handicap when dumping the rider in a real uncharacteristic performance from the gates. He’s a 1200m specialist, Stubby back on and can sprint well fresh, even though he likely has eyes on the Goodwood during the Carnival. Class may well carry him.

Very interesting runner is 8 Embley (Bet Now: $31.00), formerly with Bjorn Baker but has now landed himself with the Will Clarken stable. He looked quite busted when racing in Sydney and retirement looked to be on the cards but he’s with a new stable in new surroundings. Trial was just fair, but he can trial like that and we know the stable can seriously improve a tried horse.

He’s back in trip is 3 Lynch Mob (Bet Now: $7.50), but have to like the way he’s going about his business. Ran over the 2000m here a tick over three weeks ago where he continued his purple patch, coming home strongly from off the pace to win narrowly but impressively once again. The set up isn’t ideal, but hopefully the speed is on, and he did win impressively at the track/distance three back.

1 Yankee Eyes (Bet Now: $12.00) has been up forever it seems, but gee this girl is racing well and again is beautifully in at the weights after the claim for Kayla Crowther, who does ride the horse well. She rode her over the mile here last Saturday where she was wide no cover on speed and was entitled to drop out but she kept finding and it took a handy one in Naseeb to beat her. If that hasn’t busted her, clearly one of the hardest to beat.

8 Cannot Be Serios (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Michael Hickmott trained gelding who was rewarded for his consistency with a narrow but strong win at this track/distance two back before stepping back to 1400m on the Parks track and finding them a bit nippy but far from disgraced behind Amberdi. Back up to the mile should suit…got the class to win? At his best, yes he does. Just depends if he wants to show it.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Bondeiger

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 10 Etna

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Jumbo Prince

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 9, 10

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 8

Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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