A capacity field has been assembled for the Australian Guineas (1600m) this Saturday at Flemington, where most eyes will be on star colt Jacquinot and classy Kiwi filly Legarto.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Australian Guineas.
2023 Australian Guineas Speed Map
There is no designated leader here, outside Lindermann, but is down to run in the Randwick Guineas and you’d think runs here potentially. Holymanz, Mr Maestro and Maximillius are all horses who will be forwardly placed, but I can’t see them going hard in front.
2023 Australian Guineas Runner Preview:
1. Jacquinot: Jacquinot is a star colt. Class got him home fresh in the Manfred before getting the CF Orr win via the Stewards Room. Was he lucky to get it? IMO, yes, but the record says he beat the older horses at WFA and stamped himself a high class animal. Back to his own age, a Grand Final for him, he has the runs on the board and appeals as one of the leading chances.
2. Elliptical: He is probably the one horse from the CS Hayes you’d want leading into this. He was first up, wide no cover, had nothing drag him into the race yet was one of the strongest to the line in winning. Him going backwards is the only thing helping those in behind. Is he good enough to beat a horse like Jacquinot? I am saying no.
3. Osipenko: SCRATCHED
4. Mr Maestro: Back to the mile I hate for this guy. He ran last Saturday in the Autumn Classic and was very good from the back when second to Pericles. To me, he wants 2000m, not coming back to the mile, from 1800m. He’ll be strong late. Just don’t think he has the quality.
5. Virtuous Circle: Virtuous Circle is a nice horse. The race shape was clearly against him in the Autumn Stakes so forgive and forget the down the track effort behind Glint Of Silver. He looked the 2000m+ horse in the Spring but the stable dodged the Derby. Fitter and up to 1600m, he can settle closer in the run and his best is certainly good enough to be a first four threat.
6. The Fortune Teller: Mounting yard experts love this horse given how good of a sort he is. He resumed in the Autumn Stakes where he was there to win the race but just couldn’t quite get there when third to Glint Of Silver. I will be surprised if that form is the right form for this race.
7. Bank Maur: Jury is out surely on him. Did enough fresh in the Autumn Stakes then seemingly had every possible behind Eliptical in the CS Hayes. I’ll be losing on the race if this horse wins.
8. Amenable: He’s a horse I have time for. Just don’t think he’s sharp enough to be a Group l winner at the mile. To me, he is a 2000m+ horse, so wait until he gets to that trip, potentially with an eye towards the Derby.
9. Elkington Road: He seemingly had his chance in the CS Hayes but that said, he wasn’t beaten far, a half length behind Eliptical. There is enough in the form to suggest he is a tier or two down from the A Grade.
10. Lindermann: Nash pulled their pants down at Rosehill last time. He got control in front, rolled and gave nothing else a look in. His two runs back have been against older horses, so he’s had the tough grounding now back to his own age. Just not sure he has the class to measure up.
11.Muramasa: Muramasa is a first four threat at a price. Busuttin/Young trained colt that resumed in the CS Hayes where he went around like it was a barrier trial, sitting last in the run and took forever to wind into his work but the last 100m and through the line was strong, indicating a rise to the mile is ideal. He reminds me of Forgot You. Talented but quirky. He’ll be strong late and is a must for exotics.
12. Maximillius: If there was discretion in who should/shouldn’t run, I’d say he shouldn’t be here. He’s not a 1600m horse. He had every chance in the CS Hayes and couldn’t get there. Happy to look elsewhere.
13. Holymanz: He has come a fair way in a short time. He ran a game second in the CS Hayes, closing off the race strongly but just couldn’t quite get there to run second to Eliptical. 1600m is the query, but he’s very genuine.
14.Attrition: Attrition is a very smart three year old for Mitch Freedman. He has been excellent this time in, winning his first two starts for the prep with ease before going to the CS Hayes where not much went his way in the straight and could make a case to say that with clear air, he goes close to beating Eliptical. He has the engine under the hood to measure up. Just needs room to move.
15.Legarto: Legarto is a star filly from NZ and I am really confident she can measure up down under. She hasn’t raced since Karaka Day at Pukekohe in NZ and really, it was an all time slaughter by Ryan Elliot, who has ridden her super previously but that race, he gave her none. Gets an in form Mick Dee aboard, she’ll be strong late and has electric change up speed, plus with the weight pull…she only runs well.
16.Laced Up Heels:Good filly that I think will win a race in Melbourne with the right placement. This isn’t the right placement.
17.Japanese Emperor (First Emergency): Resumed in the Autumn Stakes and wasn’t beaten far by Glint Of Silver, but I highly doubt that form will stand up here.
2023 Australian Guineas $100 Betting Strategy:
I have been hot on Legarto for this race for nearly six months so happy to have $20 Win/$80 Place.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $3950
Group l Strategy Return: $2613.50
