The fourth and final of the majors at Randwick this Saturday is the Australian Derby (240m), where the market suggests it’ll be an open affair.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2025 Australian Derby.
2025 Australian Derby Runner Preview:
1. Willydoit: He spanked them in the NZ Derby but I do think the NZ 3YO boys at 2000m…they’re very dodgy IMO. He is a good horse, don’t get me wrong, has talent…but under $4 favourite? Pass.
2. Goldrush Guru: Goldrush Guru is a big, big improver. I was one that wanted Jamie to ride him like the best horse in the race in the Guineas but it didn’t work as he got quite keen in the run and tired late. I think with a more patient steer here, he has the runs on the board to be given another look.
3. Thedoctoroflove: This guy is the reason I am potting Willydoit. He was dominant in winning the Avondale Guineas before placing in the NZ Derby. Prior to heading across, he was bringing very suspect form. He’s got none IMO.
4. Shanwah: Pattern was in his corner in the Alister Clark but even allowing for that, he was arrogant the way he put them away. Very progressive horse, maps well and off last run 2400m is fine. A contender.
5. Plymouth: He had the pattern in his corner in the Rosehill Guineas last time and battled away really well in defeat. He is a nice horse but for mine, I can’t see him running 2400m.
6. Pocketing: He just got the win in the Tulloch on Tuesday and he’s racing very well, but 2000m just saw him out. 2400m is different gravy.
7. Firm Agreement: Pattern was in his corner in the Tulloch and yes, he was the flashing light, but he was flattered I feel. I reckon he could be one to watch for Brisbane maybe.
8. King Of Thunder: He’s the only one from the Tulloch for me. I thought his run was enormous. Wasn’t there to play, was right out wide in the quicksand, but loved the way he finished off. He maps to do no work, he’ll be fine at 2400m…definite threat.
9. Golden Century: Raced a bit on the fresh side in the Tulloch and just whacked late. I say he’s going to struggle.
10. Imperialist: Imperialist seems a massive price for mine. Watching the replay of the Alister Clark, I note how late Jye was at pushing the button and how strong the horse was to/through the line. He is the one with that sense of timing and for mine, will eat up 2400m. A win wouldn’t shock at all and I am definitely having something each way on.
11. Mustang Morgan: Well held in the NZ Derby. Not for me here.
12. Red Aces: Suited up in trip but he was plain in the Alister Clark and can’t see him turning the tables.
13. Confetti Garden: He did a bit wrong in the Tulloch but did seem to have his chance. Tricky draw and not sold on him running 2400m.
14. Tsitsipas: Dostance is no issue because he is a one batter who will just keep chipping away. But I don’t think he has the class.
15. Autumn Aroha: Not sure he was happy on the wet track in the Tulloch but he was fence in run and just battled. Pass for me.
16. Bernen Win: Why is this guy $201+? I thought he was far from disgraced in the Rosehill Guineas, working home well enough in defeat. Does he win? Probably not, but he just looks the wrong price.
17. Kosuke: Outclassed in the Rosehill Guineas and is much the same here.
18. Aeliana: Aeliana will eat up 2400m IMO. She ran in the Rosehill Guineas and I don’t think you have to be a genius to say she wins if she got clear air. Gee it was an ugly watch, getting out very late and just missing out on picking up Broadsiding. Weight pull being a filly, 2400m is fine, not a deep race…keen.
19. Flying Argento (First Emergency): He’ll stay all day but just lacks the class.
20. Deal N Dash (Second Emergency): He’d be in the mix I think after his luckess Tulloch effort. But I reckon he’ll go to the Frank Packer and then potentially head to either Adelaide/Brisbane.
21. Format (Third Emergency): Ambulance beat him home in the Tulloch. Pass.
22. So You Are (Fourth Emergency): Progressive galloper but not up to these.
23. Black Babylon (Fifth Emergency): He is one for the future. Not here.
2025 Australian Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
$60 Win Aeliana, $20 Win Goldrush Guru and $10 E/W Imperialist.
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5350
Group l Strategy Return: $2973.50
2025 Australian Derby Speed Map
I don’t see much early speed here. Willydoit could press forward, like they did in the NZ Derby. Shanwah and Plymouth could sit near the front given they have both drawn good gates but there is no designated leader.
