9/9/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes day

A bumper program has been assembled for Dato Tan Chin Nam Day at the Valley this Saturday with the winner of the Group ll mile feature getting a free ticket into the Cox Plate. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Samovare (Bet Now: $2.60) looks the way to go here. High quality mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumed a few weeks back over 1400m at Flemington where she looked a good thing on paper but unfortunately was stuck wide throughout and couldn’t really show the required dash to go with Swampland, who has franked the form, as has a few others from the race. If she handles the track and step up despite a break between runs, I think her class gets her home.

9 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $4.40) is a gutsy mare for Ken Keys who has been given a little freshen up since racing over 2000m at Flemington where she tried hard as she always does but couldn’t quite hold out Eureka Street. She does have residual fitness on her side and one thing we do know is that she will be strong at the end.

1 Domino Vitale (Bet Now: $12.00) will appreciate getting away from Hell Or Highwater. She has bumped into that mare at her past two outings and has run well but no match for that horse, who went on to beat the boys in the Heatherlie last Saturday, so the form does read well for a mares race and she is a winner at the Valley.

6 Aberro (Bet Now: $3.50) is an above average looking colt for Matt Laurie who got the maiden win out of the way fresh at Sandown and the win was very good too. Got a fair way back in the run but Melham got him into the clear and he finished off with real purpose late to get the win. Confident he can measure up.

Wasn’t hard to miss the fresh run of 8 Sunquest (Bet Now: $3.20) in the McKenzie here a fortnight back. He was one of only a handful to make significant ground throughout the day and the run was a ripper behind Overshare, who has Menari, which is near top shelf Sydney form. Scratchings help and up to the 1509m is perfect.

13 Kedleston (Bet Now: $21.00) is still a maiden but he is racing really well at the moment despite not greeting the judge first. He comes through the Sandown race won by Mutamayel where he got left flatfooted when they sprinted but he picked up and was good late. Has run well here before and will only carry 51kg after the claim.

Good to see 9 Ebediyin (Bet Now: $7.00) back at the races. He made his Australian debut for the Weir team on July 22 at Flemington where he was smashed in betting given his overseas form but he paddled behind Riyadah, but we now know he probably isn’t entirely happy on the firm track, so the cushion that the Valley offers looks ideal and I’m happy to give him a look.

16 Brahmos (Bet Now: $3.10) is a progressive type for John Sadler who has had two career outings, both on the Hillside track at Sandown. Debut win in a strong race was outstanding before being freshened up and racing there on August 23 where he beat all bar Vellastar and he probably should have won but did a bit wrong. keen to see what he does here.

I think the big watch here is 2 Reincarnate (Bet Now: $13.00) for the Mathrick yard. Former Godolphin horse having his first run for the new stable and we know the record he has with tried horses, especially Godolphin runners. This horse had been racing really well in much stronger races prior to leaving James Cummings and at nearly $20, he is a crazy price.

7 Harlow Gold (Bet Now: $4.60) is a very good mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team who should go close here. Her effort first up at the mile here two weeks ago was outstanding. She got badly held up on the turn when appearing to have plenty to offer and you could make a case she could have gone close to winning. If the breaks go her way, she’ll go close.

3 Foundation (Bet Now: $9.50) produced his best run since coming to Australia at this track/distance a fortnight ago under Mark Zahra. Attempted to lead all the way and despite being a touch flattered by the bias, he stuck on really well in defeat behind Pacodali. Looks as if he’ll press forward again and he should be closer to peak fitness now.

4 Foundry (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Team Williams trained gelding who resumed a few weeks back over the Caulfield mile and gee his effort was strong. Attempted to lead all the way at a decent clip and looked gone several times, but he just kept finding and was only eventually worn down by Rhythm To Spare. Should only improve off that and has class.

7 Houtzen (Bet Now: $2.50) looks the way to go here. Whether or not she’s an Everest horse remains to be seen, but the 1000m at the Valley looks perfect for her. High cruising speed with 50kg on her back with C Williams steering does see her tick pretty much all the boxes, and her trial win was very good, as you’d expect.

You’d be filthy if you backed 5 Heatherly (Bet Now: $6.50) in the Carlyon a fortnight back. She was back to her old tricks in the gates, and she ran half her race there. She did a remarkable job in the end to fight on like she did, only getting pipped on the peg by Missrock. If she behaves and gets a sweet trip near the tempo, she’ll take some beating.

If there is one horse the Weir camp is talking up, it is 2 Hellbent (Bet Now: $10.00). They are very confident he will win a Group l this prep. Which one it is, I’m not sure, but I think this will be a good guide. Bad luck probably beat him in his lone run here in the William Reid and while he is better suited at 1200m, the pace will be electric here so he’ll get his chance.

1 Shoals (Bet Now: $3.00) on top for me in a cracking edition of the Atlantic Jewel. Very good filly for the Freedman camp who created a big impression in a short space of time during the Autumn, ending her prep unbeaten with a narrow and gritty win in the Percy Sykes. Recent jump out was very impressive and she looks ready to go.

8 Sanadaat (Bet Now: $3.50) is the money horse here and via process of elimination, she’s in the numbers. I didn’t think much of her return win at Sandown other than yes, it was impressive, and she’ll go through her grades before targeting riches in the Autumn. But, she is here and very well liked so I can’t ignore her.

9 Sheikha (Bet Now: $26.00) is a very interesting runner for me here. Smart looking filly for the Waterhouse/Bott yard who resumes here after a two run prep in the Autumn. Got the job done nicely fresh at Warwick Farm before a gutsy third to Property and was tipped out soon after. Trial behind Tangled was good and her best efforts have come fresh.

2 Brave Smash (Bet Now: $1.60) looks the obvious. Former Japanese galloper who produced the run of the day when making his Australian debut at Caulfield three weeks back in the Regal Roller, flashing home late in the inferior ground when second to Vega Magic, who has since won the Memsie. If he handles the circuit, I think he wins.

10 El Divino (Bet Now: $8.50) is the close relation to Winx who has promised a fair bit but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. He resumed in the Carlyon here a fortnight back and I think he will be better off with his first look at the Valley under the belt in what was a tidy performance behind Missrock. Up to 1200m looks ideal and he should be near his stablemate Brave Smash in the run.

3 Santa Ana Lane (Bet Now: $12.00) is a quality sprinter for Anthony Freedman that trialled up well himself prior to resuming in the Regal Roller three weeks back where he ran a gutsy third to a couple of stars in Vega Magic and Brave Smash. He’s not quite as dynamic second up, which is the query, but I have to include him.

7 Sir Isaac Newton (Bet Now: $11.00) is the big, big watch here. Team Williams import who had one run in the Autumn, which came in the Blamey and he ran a shocker it has to be said behind Palentino. He has world class form next to his name and no doubt the stable will have him wound up enough to run a beauty fresh.

11 Bonneval (Bet Now: $6.00) is a high class mare that resumes for the Baker/Forsman team. She took all before her in the Autumn, winning the NZ Oaks/Australian Oaks double, and has been earmarked as a Spring horse ever since. I think whatever she does here she will improve because her Taupo trial was just fair I thought. Still, she has class, and loads of it.

8 Articus (Bet Now: $8.00) is a horse I want to forgive. Resumed at this track/distance a fortnight back and I thought his effort under the circumstances was very good, making ground on a leaders track behind Here To There. There was a bit of support to suggest he’d run well also. Unbeaten in three second up attempts, he has to go in.

Very keen here on the Darren Weir trained 1 Big Duke (Bet Now: $6.50). His resumption over the mile at Caulfield three weeks back was very good I thought, making up really good ground off a slow-ish tempo behind Rhythm To Spare, clocking some fast splits late. Should only improve off that and rates very highly for mine.

5 Here To There (Bet Now: $7.50) is just a beauty for the Ciaron Maher team. Won impressively two back at Caulfield before backing up seven days later at this track/distance where he was given a lovely ride by Steph Thornton and the eight year old eventually wore down Mihany. Clearly harder here, but hard to knock winners.

4 Raw Impulse (Bet Now: $8.50) looks the big improver. He comes through the race won by Here To There and I thought his effort in defeat was pretty good considering he was back near last/wide on a day where it was a big tick to be on speed/rail. I think on an even playing field here, he can run a beauty because he is near unbeatable second up.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Brave Smash

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 1 Big Duke

VALUE: Race Eight Number 7 Sir Isaac Newton

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 5, 7, 8, 11

Leg Four: 1

$50 Investment= 208.33% of the dividend if successful

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