The Caulfield Cup Carnival swings into action in a big way this Saturday at the Heath with a brilliant program of racing, with the main race being the Caulfeild Guineas (1600m), but the main race surely will be the Caulfield Stakes (2000m), the first time Melbourne sees Winx since her Cox Plate win. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:20) : Inglis Debutant Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: 2 All Eez (Bet Now: $13.00) debuts here for Tony McEvoy. This colt by Exceed And Excel looked sharp in a Morphettville trial win back in early September. Bred to be handy, and from what I’ve seen he is definitely that. He was nominated for the Maribyrnong Trial but instead runs here. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: 7 Platinum (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Godolphin colt on debut by Animal Kingdom. His latest jump out came on September 23 at Flemington when running fourth and doing it nicely I thought, and that trial contained the impressive Madeenaty. One of many hopes here.
Roughie: 11 Spoils (Bet Now: $7.00) is a first starter for Vinery Stud and Clinton McDonald. Really liked the way this filly trialled at Cranbourne, winning the trial and doing it under minimal pressure. The dam showed talent in a short career, and this girl herself looks handy. The negative is Corey Brown and his last 50 rides down under has only seen him ride home one winner.
Race Two (12:55) : Ladbrokes Herbert Power Stakes 2400m:
Back Me: 2 Howard Be Thy Name (Bet Now: $3.50) for me here. He comes through the Underwood where he chased hard in the straight and ran through the line pretty well I thought behind stablemate Black Heart Bart. He will love the step up to 2400m now and is well weighted.
Big Danger: 4 Assign (Bet Now: $2.70) was given a lovely steer from Katelyn Mallyon last time out in the Harry White Classic (2400m) but he was no match for Almandin, who is now being touted as a Melbourne Cup contender. This looks a lovely assignment for him and he should take some beating.
Roughie: 5 Pemberley (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented galloper for Ciaron Maher who was too classy for his rivals last time out in the Murtoa Cup. He has always proven to be a city class horse, but now he gets tested as whether or not he is a serious Spring horse.
Race Three (13:30) : Thoroughbred Club Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Prompt Response (Bet Now: $7.50) comes through the Champagne Stakes at the Valley where she looked completely lost around the tight track but she stuck on very strongly to be beaten only a length. The form was tested last week via Gretna, who ran well here. Prompt Response will be better around a bend I suspect and looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Conchita (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented filly that resumes for Paul Perry. She raced twice during the Winter, winning first up before running behind Russian Revolution. Trialled well firstly behind Annatime before going to Cessnock where she broke the clock in a trial, winning by ten lengths. Stable doesn’t bring them South for nothing.
Roughie: 8 Summer Glen (Bet Now: $17.00) got her maiden win out of the way in good style last time out at Kilmore where she led throughout, a tactic which probably doesn’t suit her but she was just too good. Star prior she ran subsequent Thousand Guineas Prelude winner Legless Veuve to just under a length. That reads very well for this.
Race Four (14:05) : Catalina Sounds Weekend Hussler Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Going with 3 Chetwood (Bet Now: $2.10). This horse was one of the better triallers leading up to his preparation where he has won three from three, the latest coming in the Cameron Handicap (1350m) at Newcastle where it was pretty much a barrier trial, which is the query as he takes on some quality gallopers here, but I think he just might have the brilliance to cover these.
Big Danger: Getting close to D-Day for 5 Badawiya (Bet Now: $5.50). She had three wide cover in the Sir Rupert Clarke before peeling out and letting down okay without really threatening behind Bon Aurum. Significant drop down in grade for the mare, gate one and being third up, she should be ready fitness wise, and she’s on her home track.
Roughie: 11 Coldstone (Bet Now: $34.00) is a former French galloper making his Australian debut for Mick Kent. He comes here off the back of two wins on the Chantilly Synthetic. Form is unknown, but the trial behind The Quarterback was alright and he was nominated also for the Toorak. Big watch.
Race Five (14:40) : Cape Grimm Beef Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: There was a lot to like about the first up win of 2 Secret Agenda (Bet Now: $4.20) in the How Now (1200m) here three weeks back. She sat wide no cover for the duration but she was just far too good for them and won with a bit in reserve. Any rain would enhance her chances, but without that, she is still a live threat.
Big Danger: 14 Ameritralia (Bet Now: $6.00) produced the win of the day here last Saturday when sitting around midfield in the run and producing a powerful finishing burst to get the job done impressively, albeit against inferior opposition to what she faces here, but she is a mare in form who has a lethal turn of foot when presented.
Roughie: 5 Exclusive Lass (Bet Now: $41.00) also comes through the How Now and I thought her run in defeat was very good. She was wide throughout also and seemingly didn’t handle the turns at all, but once she balanced up, she really hit the line with purpose. Her overall form probably isn’t as strong as some engaged here, but that fresh effort was too good to ignore.
Race Six (15:15) : Ladbrokes Caulfield Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Leaning towards 3 Winx (Bet Now: $1.20)…. She comes here off the back of a superb win in the George Main (1600m) where she sat back in the run and won as she pleased. Clearly the best horse in the race, but the three horse field will certainly be a twist on her usual racing pattern with tactics becoming more important. This will be the good test against the best Victoria has to offer before she heads to the Cox Plate.
Big Danger: To the eye, the win of 1 Black Heart Bart (Bet Now: $4.60) in the Underwood (1800m) was dominant given he chased The Cleaner, but the sectionals weren’t quick and nothing from the back could get involved. He is the best horse over the mile in Victoria at the moment but is another that needs to prove himself stepping out to the 2000m.
Roughie: 2 He Or She (Bet Now: $34.00) …well done to him on picking up $54,000. In saying that, his run in the Underwood was very good behind Black Heart Bart. He stuck to the task gamely and was far from disgraced. He’ll probably lead and give some cheek and should finish in the first three….
Race Seven (15:50) : Schweppes Thousand Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Foxplay (Bet Now: $3.40) is looking to continue the strong recent record of Sydney fillies in this race after getting the job done impressively in both the Furious and Tea Rose, and both times she has just savaged the peg. There isn’t much between the Melbourne fillies IMO, whereas she has been the dominant filly outside Omei Sword in Sydney. Looks the way to go.
Big Danger: Don’t underestimate the win of 10 Leotie (Bet Now: $19.00) at Bendigo last Thursday. It was a bottomless track, she was against hard seasoned gallopers, so despite only winning in the last stride, to my eye, it was very impressive. That 1400m win on a heavy track would have felt like a mile run, which should be the perfect tune up for this.
Roughie: Not going to drop off 11 Sebring Dream (Bet Now: $34.00) as a threat here. I didn’t mind her run in the Prelude, where she was cluttered up between runners and looked a little lost on the turn but once balanced up, she found the line quite nicely. Her best efforts have been where she has had clear galloping room and outside horses. If that eventuates here, she is a definite threat.
Race Eight (16:30) : Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Divine Prophet (Bet Now: $5.50) is the horse I’ve landed with here. This horse was enormous two back in the Golden Rose (1400m) before going to the Stan Fox (1500m) where he lost a shoe in the run and was the perfect bunny for Impending. Switch the runs, switch the result. Stable have a remarkable record in this race and this horse does have a sense of timing about him.
Big Danger: 2 Impending (Bet Now: $4.20) won the Stan Fox mentioned above and was impressive. He had the blinkers on for the first time and there was the question that he may race too fiercely with them on, but he relaxed and handled them easy. Stable can do no wrong this Spring and he has always given the impression of being a star miler. He is a serious threat.
Roughie: 6 Saracino (Bet Now: $13.00) didn’t handle the straight course at all in the Danehill (1200m) but still got the job done before going to the Guineas Prelude (1400m) where he didn’t have the best of luck behind the likely Derby winner in Sacred Elixir. Untried at the mile, but he gives the impression he’ll handle it comfortably, and you always have to respect the stable in any Group l.
Race Nine (17:10) : IG Markets Toorak Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 4 He’s Our Rokki (Bet Now: $2.90) is the favourite and deservedly so after stringing together two from two this time in. Produced a brilliant finish to get the job done first up before getting cover last start and he just put them away with ease. Always destined to be a top liner, and he gets his chance here. Gate one, peak fitness in form…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 6 Royal Rapture (Bet Now: $8.50) was given a 12/10 by Ben Allen to get the job done over 1700m here a fortnight back, chasing hard to grab Mihany in the shadows of the post. The form out of that looks very strong with the likes of De Little Engine, Tally, Maurus and Zanteca all running well on the weekend. Three of his last four starts, all wins, have been at 1700m, so he’s hard fit and the weight drop is timely.
Roughie: 11 Great Esteem (Bet Now: $26.00) was a strong all the way winner of the Heatherlie (1700m) here before taking the trip to Randwick for the George Main where he was just simply outclassed by the champion mare that is Winx. Back on his home track, he’ll roll along, and with only 52kg on his back, I think he’ll give a great sight.
Race Ten (17:45) : Mitsubishi Electric Schillaci Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 12 Star Turn (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the obvious here. The colt had the favours on speed first up in the San Domenico and won impressively before pushing Astern hard in the Run To The Rose (1200m). WFA suits him to perfection here and provided he doesn’t get too badly gassed on speed, I think he’ll produce a decent enough kick to win.
Big Danger: 11 Ocean Embers (Bet Now: $10.00) was one of the real finds of the Winter, highlighted by her brilliant last to first effort last start in the Cockram Stakes (1200m) here. The form out of that has really held up via the likes of Don’t Doubt Mamma, Thames Court, Telopea and Mossin’ Around. WFA probably isn’t her go, but that turn of foot is lethal.
Roughie: 4 Hucklebuck (Bet Now: $9.50) comes through the Testa Rossa (1200m) here where he was resuming and he looked as though he was going to win the race, but first up and 61kg just found him out late when a close up fourth to Keen Array. Ran third in the CF Orr second up last prep, but I think the stable are training him like a sprinter. Draws gate one and the WFA scale really suits him.
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 12 Star Turn
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Divine Prophet
VALUE: Race Three Number 6 Prompt Respone
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 2.89% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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