8/6/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Withfulthinking (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) does look an above average filly for Andrew Noblet who was well supported when debuting over 1100m at Wangaratta and she absolutely spanked them. To the eye, it was impressive, and the clock backed it up, with her time being much quicker than the two other 1100m races for the meeting. Confident she measures up. Just hope she handles the straight track.

1 Champagne Boom (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is the class of the field and we saw a couple of weeks back via stablemate Sebrakate that strong 2YO form from the Autumn does stand up big time this time of year. This filly hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast where she ran a gutsy sixth to Exhilarates. Tatura trial was solid but loved the way she went in a Flemington jumpout a couple of weeks back. Class will carry her a long way.

The race does look to have a bit of a tail to it behind the top pair. 3 St Edwards Crown (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) comes through the Sebrakate race from two weeks ago over 1200m here when chasing strongly off a slow speed and was good late. If this was 1400m, she’d probably be on top. Just back to 1100m a little query, but will get a more genuine tempo and be strong late.

4 Kings Brook (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is a David Briedoake trained filly who returns to the scene of the crime, winning at this track/distance three weeks back under a lovely ride just off the speed from Jye McNeil. She was there to be beaten early on in the straight but once fully clicked up, she put them away rather easily and safely held her rivals. Bit more depth here, but likeable all the same.

I reckon the Ellerton/Zahra trained 7 Josephine Sea (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is going quite well at the moment. Ran over 1400m at Flemington three weeks ago where I thought Chris Symons gave her a peach of a steer just off the speed and she loomed large to win. Kings Brook was just too dominant and stronger at the end of 1400m, but she comfortably beat the rest. With that hard run under the belt, she appeals.

10 Mrs Bignell (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) deserves her crack at some city racing. She’s done a ripping job in recent times for Mitch Freedman, her last start coming on the Synthetic at Pakenham when sitting off the speed and powering home to win impressively. Gets down to 51kg after the claim for Jess Eaton and she’ll do no work from the draw. Certainly shouldn’t be dismissed.

5 Prezado (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) looks one of several ways you could go here. Think this Ellerton/Zahra trained sprinter is well placed. Hasn’t raced since early January down the Flemington straight when a solid third to Chauffeur, beaten just over 1.5L. Good record down the straight, sprints really well fresh and his jumpouts leading in have been quite encouraging to the eye.

The best version of 2 Tonsor (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is certainly good enough to figure in the finish. Hasn’t raced since April 13 at Eagle Farm when producing an absolute shocker behind the then in form Scallopini. Been given a freshen up and looked quite sharp in a recent Warwick Farm trial. Not the strongest sprint race going around so with his best form, he’s up to these.

6 Parwan Prince (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is an absolute beauty for the Jade Darose stable and the gelding resumes after a fab Winter prep last year which saw him win three races including one at Sandown. This isn’t the strongest open sprint going around, he’s trialled up well, draws the right part of the track to get clear and the little bit of cushion in the track should be ideal.

All about 7 Leiter (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) for me. Tom Hughes trains this three year old, who resumed at Caulfield on April 13 when wide for the trip and sticking on strongly, with the hard fit and subsequent ill fated Columbus Circle getting the better of him late. Been freshened up and was the standout performer at the Flemington jumpouts last week, clearly running the fastest time of the morning under no pressure. Keen.

3 Halvorsen (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a very intriguing runner. Just looked in need of the run fresh before going to the VOBIS Dash at Caulfield where he looked in a nasty spot until the ill fated Columbus Circle went amiss, the gap presented and the horse took it, finishing best with the weight to win. Was potentially heading to the Goodwood, but has been kept on ice for this Series. Hard to beat.

8 Des Moines (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) looks a handy enough three year old for Michael Moroney who made them look like camels two back when breaking the maiden at Mornington, with the runner up winning after that. This bloke then contested the Not Enough Effort race from two weeks ago when near the speed and fought on strongly to run third. Draws the likely best part of the track and back to 1000m no issue.

8 Angelic Spirit (Bet Now: $6.50) on top. Talented mare for the Busuttin/Young stable that resumes after a pretty good Spring/Summer, which saw her win a couple of races and be tested at Stakes grade where she didn’t quite measure up. Been given a good break, has won first up in the past and has looked outstanding in a couple of Cranbourne jumpouts. Think she’s ready to go.

3 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $7.50) is an Uncle Mo gelding for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since January 19 over 1800m at Flemington when battling away quite well in defeat behind the then in form McEvoy runner Laure Me In. Has a good overall record and can sprint well fresh, plus did trial quite well to the eye at Tatura.

1 Artie Dee Two (Bet Now: $15.00) is going really well at the moment for Mitch Freedman. Ran at Sandown last time out where he was held up for a few strides but liked the way he found the line late to run fourth. Sable is flying and is a proven city performer, and can carry weight successfully, so he has a few things going for him and has to be respected against this lot.

11 Arty Lucas (Bet Now: $3.20) looks to be heading in the right direction for Paul Preusker. First two runs back from a spell were solid before racing over 2000m at Ballarat where he found the right race and under a confident steer from Jordan Childs, the son of Lucas Cranach powered clear late and was most impressive. He should eat up 2500m, has upside and stable is going super.

2500m should be ideal for the Patrick Payne trained 2 Home By Midnight (Bet Now: $11.00). Was good here two back over 2000m before remaining at that trip last Saturday at Caulfield, which was the query, and that was against him in the end when fourth to Pacodali. Now he steps up in trip, getting fitter and this does look somewhat of a drop in depth from last weekend. Definite threat.

8 Lycurgus (Bet Now: $26.00) is an interesting runner. Danny O’Brien trains this gelding, who has done bugger all in two runs back from a spell, the latest over 2000m here when down the track behind Mantastic. Has had a jumpout since and looked okay there. At his best, can certainly beat these, but just a question mark on how well he’s going, but don’t want him getting away from me.

Have always had time for the Anthony Freedman trained 7 Bedford (Bet Now: $17.00). Admittedly he didn’t do much in three runs during the Spring but he bumped into Another Coldie twice and in between was Take It Intern, and both runners would be odds on in this kind of race. Bedford resumed at Sandown and I liked the way he finished his race off behind Connery. Should take some beating here.

12 Dr Drill (Bet Now: $2.10) is getting close to D-Day. He was hard in the market when racing at this track/distance a fortnight ago where I thought Willow gave the import an absolute peach of a steer, looking the winner for the most part, but was bloused near the peg by Admiral’s Joker. Should just about be hard fit now, ready to go, and does look to get an ideal set up.

6 One More Try (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be in for a good prep for Matt Cumani. Resumed over 1400m here three weeks ago where she sat back in a slowly run race and given that scenario, her chances were diminished, but she closed off quite nicely late behind Spanner Head. Really sharp second up record and up to 1800m from the soft gate, she does appeal big time.

Perfect race for the Tony Noonan trained 6 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $8.50). Freshened up and ran down the straight here a fortnight ago where he was slightly held up around 300m out, but was out in time to win. Just doesn’t have the sharp legs of some talented sprinters but his effort was more than sound behind Order Of Command. Up to 1400m, fitter, he looks a great bet.

9 Firsthand (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Team Hawkes trained gelding who had trialled up well prior to resuming over 1200m at Caulfield when back in the run and never really likely but closed off nicely late to run third to Order Of Command. He draws to get decent enough three wide cover and if that does eventuate and gets the right drag into the race, he’ll be quite dangerous.

2 Carzoff (Bet Now: $46.00) is better suited over further but I have really liked the way he has trialled/jumped out leading into his resumption. Did trial over 1100m at Werribee and wasn’t asked for much of an effort but still looked pretty good when a close up fourth. Did resume over 1800m last prep and just missed, but the way he’s trialling, I think he has enough speed in the legs to be competitive at 1400m fresh.

Back up to the mile, happy to be in the corner of the Grahame Begg trained 8 Vanuatu (Bet Now: $8.00). Came back in trip to win two back at the Sandown midweeks before coming back to 1400m here a fortnight ago where she couldn’t take advantage of the inside gate, settling near last in the run, but loved the way she found the line late behind Fabric, looking like a filly clearly wanting further, which she gets.

4 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $2.40) is a deserving favourite given she does have the Princess Jenni/Fidelia form, but $2.40? Gee that’s short. But it’s the A1 form. Got back in the run last time at this track/distance before presenting wider, letting hard and just missing out on picking up Fidelia. Likely gets dragged back from the barrier again and will be spotting a start, but has class.

13 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $9.50) has done a pretty good job in a short space of time for the Enver Jusufovic team. Ran in the Fabric race two weeks back where Mick Dee gave her a nice run nearer the inside and she tried hard but was no match late for the winner, but her late splits were pretty good. She’s looking as if 1600m will suit and does look to have plenty of upside left.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 11 Arty Lucas

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Leiter

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Angelic Spirit

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 10, 12

Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 9

Leg Four: 4, 8, 9, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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