7/12/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Northerly Stakes day

The Pinnacles at Ascot continues this Saturday where it is Northerly Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Northerly Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Northerly Stakes

3 Do I Feel Lucky (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. Team Casey trained juvenile that is on debut off the back of two trials, both coming over 400m, so they are a touch inconclusive, but from what I saw, he did move well and the stable are good with their juveniles so keen to see how he goes.

1 Buckled (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He debuted a fortnight back in the Crystal Slipper where he was raw and new to the caper but he kept finding and was solid enough in defeat behind dominant all the way winner Yes Queen. Better for the run, he appeals.

4 El Alamein (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of El Rommel for Paul Jordan that is on debut off the back of two trials. Latest trial was over 850m at Belmont where he ran second, beaten under a length, but moved well enough I thought. Stable can get their juveniles ready, so watch the market.

5 Russian To The Bar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Northerly so with that in mind, he looks a good thing here. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago, getting back in the run and made up strong headway late in the piece behind Fast Flicker. If he can settle closer in the run, I think good luck beating him.

7 Keshi Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran fourth to Fast Flicker a fortnight back and she was good late. Just got too far back in the run but her finale was more than sound in defeat I thought. Racing like a rise to 1600m suits and does get Pike sticking. Likeable.

3 Bruce Almighty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous if he gets front end control. He ran two weeks back behind Fast Flicker where he had the box seat sit but he wasn’t able to quicken and tired late in the piece. He races best when leading so if that eventuates, he’ll take running down.

4 Supido Express (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to resume a winner for me. He resumes for Mitch Pateman, having not raced since July 20 at Belmont when placing over 1200m, running a narrow second to Horcrux. He has been tuned up for the return with two trials and each time he has been pretty good, so keen to see how he goes fresh.

7 Seven Candles (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a fascinating runner. Brett Pope trains this first starter and gee he has looked sharp in trial work, the latest trial being a strong win at Lark Hill on Monday. He would be an absolute moral in a maiden but on debut here signals to me the stable must rate him quite highly.

8 Areduet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an eight start maiden but she does have talent. She has been freshened up since the Placid Ark Prelude on Nov 2 when down the track behind Repossession. Thought she would have gone to a maiden for a kill but the stable keep running her in these races. One for exotics.

I am very keen to see 10 Celestial Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resume. Formerly with Griffiths/De Kock, she now finds herself with Luke Fernie and she looks to be humming based on a trial at Belmont where she ran second to the well performed stablemate Bravo Centurion but moved very well and made it look second rate. If she overcomes the gate, I think good luck beating her.

3 Devine Belief (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put herself on speed and take beating, which is what she did three weeks ago at this track/distance when first up, leading and giving a very good sight but just felt the pinch late when second to Jokers Grin. Good racing style, takes beating.

6 Halatorian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout chance. He comes through the Batavia at Geraldton where he got back to near last in the run but finished off strongly and was good in defeat when a close up fourth. Has a good record at Ascot, I am not penning him.

2 Kisses From Kelly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise in trip after resuming over 1800m here last Saturday where not much went right for him but that said, he was out in time to win but first up, shorter trip, he just couldn’t quite pick up. Fitter and up in trip, he has good upside and could be a sleeper for the locals re Perth Cup.

4 Candlelight Supper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was bursting to win but just kept finding one or two better but that changed a fortnight back when a winner over 2100m here when getting the suck run in behind and just got there, fending off Royal Toronado in a driving go. Has found winning form, she can go on with it.

5 Henchard (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was kissed on the date with the race shape two back when winning the York Cup before going to the Candlelight Supper race mentioned above. He did too much work on speed but that said, he stayed on and was gallant in defeat. Must for exotics I say.

Hard to get away from 5 Janny (Bet Now:  $SP.00) given her track/distance win from two weeks ago when giving them a start and a beating, ridden a treat by Pike in saluting. She was back in the run but Pike was able to slice his way through and she finished best to win. Has that 1400m run under the belt, which holds her in good stead for this.

3 Profit Pocket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran second to Janny a fortnight back in the race mentioned above. She had a suck run in transit and presented to win but just couldn’t quite finish the job and had no answers late for the finale of the Team Williams. Good racing style and has returned in good order.

6 Miss Vasari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds. She ran two weeks back behind Janny where she got back to near last in the run and while she was held up at times, she, kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat I thought. If she can get clear air and a drag into the race, she’s dangerous.

4 In Good Order (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning but not a whole lot of confidence here. He comes through the Scahill from two weeks ago where the race shape was against him but he stayed on and was sound in defeat behind impressive winner Sentimental Hero. He has that 2100m run under the belt and can settle closer in the run.

1 Starry Heights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that comes through the Scahill Cup and be forgiving of him given he was back in a very slowly run race and just couldn’t really get involved but he did find the line well enough. More genuine tempo here hopefully and doesn’t lose much with Zahra replacing Pike.

6 Dash Of Brandy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) lacks the class of some of these but she is a mare with promise on the up. She ran over this track/distance two weeks back where she got back and while she was never threatening, she kept finding the line behind Candlelight Supper. Not sure she wins, but is a first four threat.

7 Democracy Manfiest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am going in what looks an open edition. He comes through the Railway where he drew wide and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial, getting badly held up and checked so forgive and forget. Now has a much better gate to use and the rise to 1800m, fitter…he only runs well.

2 Attrition (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Mitch Freedman and looks one of the hardest to beat. He was a surprise but strong winner of the Hill Stakes before going to the Five Diamonds where he didn’t really get the rub of the green when Ethan Brown wanted room to move. Maps perfect here and liked his trial last week.

1 Numerian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) likely has eyes on the Perth Cup but he is certainly good enough to be a threat here. He resumed on Oct 26 in the Craven Plate at Randwick and was good in defeat, just running out of condition late in the piece. Tick over trial was quite good and he did thrive in Perth last year so he is right in the mix.

8 Lonsdaleite (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip after resuming over 1000m here three weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up ground and was quite good in defeat I thought behind Jokers Grin, who would be $1.50 against these and ran well last Saturday, so with that form in mind, he takes beating.

1 Kings Honour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) had been just fair in his opening two runs back from a spell so the stable dropped him back to the Provincials at Bunbury and despite sitting wide no cover, he was too good in an impressive victory. His confidence is up and I think with a patient steer, he’ll be effective.

3 Forever Dreaming (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the interesting runner. Colin Webster trained mare that resumed over 1200m here two weeks back where the market said she’d need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Miss Flirtacious. Back in trip I find interesting but she has the run under the belt and a touch of quality when right.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 10 Celestial Storm

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Russian To The Bar

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Lonsdaleite

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 16

Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 8, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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