6/3/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Cup day

‘Super Saturday’ is well and truly the case at Flemington this Saturday, headlined by a Group l double header of the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and the Australian Cup (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

Australian Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Australian Cup

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The McArdle/Mott combo won the 2YO race here last Saturday and I think they repeat the dose via 3 La Rocque (Bet Now: $1.80 TOP ODDS). She led throughout to win on debut under the lights at Pakenham and she was dominant from the front, running sharp late splits and was strong. Most of these have 1000m form where she has the 1200m run. The one to beat.

2 Flying Evelyn (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) is a Team Freedman trained filly that was backed with real confidence when debuting at the Valley just over three weeks ago and she finished best in a driving go to win in a race where they went keen early but walked home, so that’s the knock leading into this but is in the right camp.

6 De La Fayette (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) can be an improver at odds. She debuted behind La Rocque at Pakenham and while she was never really a winning threat, she did make up ground and was more than sound in defeat I thought. Not sure I could back her to win, but reckon she is a sneaky first four threat.

Think 7 Annavisto (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) can go on with it. Didn’t quite measure up in the Spring, perhaps came around too soon for her. Resumed in a 64 at Pakenham and she was impressive the way she put them away off a moderate speed, charging clear. Being by Reliable Man, a rise to 1400m should be ideal and Olly, who made a rare trek to Pakenham specifically to ride her, is on for here as well.

1 Conceited (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) can be an improver here up in trip. James Cummings trained three year old that resumed off a 13 month spell in the Zeditave in what was more a sit/sprint, which didn’t suit him but he was still a pass mark I thought behind Oxley Road. Fitter and up in trip, he can improve.

2 Confrontational (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) will find this race more to his liking rather than the Zeditave, where he resumed. Oxley Road dominated from the front and gave nothing else a look in, including this stayer, who found them a bit sharp. Might need one more but has enough talent to potentially sneak a first four spot.

2 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) on top. Quality mare that is first up, having not raced since the Empire Rose when wide no cover and fighting on strongly, beaten just under two lengths by Shout The Bar. She is at her best when she can find slowly run races and use her change up speed, as we saw second up at this track/distance in the Spring, beating Arcadia Queen. That’s good enough for this.

Great to see 5 Odeum (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) back at the races. High quality filly for the Price/Kent team that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Spring where he was outstanding, taking out the Thousand Guineas before being beaten a lip in the Empire Rose by Shout The Bar. Couple of Caulfield jumpouts have been pleasing and 1400m fresh I do like.

1 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a key threat for sure. Resumed in the Futurity two weeks ago and I thought he closed off pretty well nearer the inside, the quicksand, behind Probabeel in a proper Group l race. Much better suited at this level…staying at 1400m is the knock but second up last prep was close up in a Memsie.

3 Lightsaber (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) looks a pretty reliable horse to my eye and is a safe option in a tricky race. This Peter Moody juvenile has won two of three career outings, the latest being just over two weeks back at Sandown when leading, controlling and running sharp late splits in winning. He’s genuine, puts himself on speed and gives his all. Hard to beat.

2 Paulele (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1400m for the Godolphin camp and James Cummings. Resumed two weeks ago in the Silver Slipper where he just found them a bit sharp at 1100m but stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Home Affairs. Much better placed in a race like this and is hard to beat.

14 Wolves (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is racing like she will appreciate the seven furlongs. Good in defeat in the Blue Diamond Prelude before contesting the big dance and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Artorius. Has upside to come and seemingly has the strongest form line, so think she has to be respected.

It’s hard to get away from 2 Oxley Road (Bet Now: $3.20) and what he was able to produce in the Zeditave two weeks ago. Being a well bred colt, he has got the Group lll win next to his name, but really, it was more a midweek event with the depth, but he was dominant. Moods reckons he is a Group l horse of the future so keen to see how he goes against some decent opposition.

5 Marboosha (Bet Now: $4.00) is a quality filly for the Snowden camp that resumes. Hasn’t raced since Oaks Day down the straight here when a fighting and narrow second to Written Beauty. Two trials to get ready have been sharp to the eye and is a proven straight track performer, so she rates highly.

1 Ranting (Bet Now: $10.00) looks hard to beat against these. Talented three year old that is second up for the Corstens camp after resuming in the Oakleigh Plate where he got back in the run and worked to the line pretty well without being a winning threat. Back to his own age, looks really hard to beat I feel.

It’s difficult to get away from 14 September Run (Bet Now: $2.25). She has looked the Newmarket horse since winning the Coolmore Stud in the Spring and confirmed it furthermore with a slashing second in the Lightning behind star stablemate Nature Strip. Saves her best for the straight course, upside, been set for the race…think only bad luck beats her.

18 Swats That (Bet Now: $7.50) is a key threat. She has had a great battle with September Run for six months or so and is yet to beat the filly home, but she has been close up every time she has faced her. There isn’t much between them, that was the case in the Lightning, so if you like September Run, which I do, have to respect Swats That.

6 Dalasan (Bet Now: $27.00) is a high quality animal for the Macdonald/Gluyas camp that resumes. Very interesting they are resuming in a Newmarket for a horse that is probably better suited at 1600/2000m. He does have class and quality when on song, he can sprint well fresh and was given a good hitout in a recent jumpout.

I’d love a positive ride on 3 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $9.50). Was hoping that would be the case first up two weeks ago in the Mannerism and after jumping well, she could have landed outside the leader, but they dragged back for cover and she just doesn’t have the change up speed to finish off and win. She’s better when near the front and rolling at her own tempo, so hoping that eventuates here.

7 Lunakorn (Bet Now: $3.70) is an improver up in trip for the Freedman camp. Resumed in the Mannerism where in a rarity, Jamie Kah rode a poor race I thought. Just erred at a critical point of the race and cost herself any chance of winning. I think she has returned well and up to 1600m appeals.

4 Moonlight Maid (Bet Now: $17.00) should be suited up to the mile. She was unwanted in betting first up in the Mannerism and while she ran last, her late splits weren’t too bad for a mare wanting further. She might need one more, but she certainly has the engine under the hood to cause problems at odds.

I’m really keen here on 3 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $4.20). IMO he brings the best form into this, with the Apollo into the Blamey, both of which were won by proper Group l class gallopers in Colette and Star Of The Seas respectively. Lovely effort in the Blamey last Saturday to top him off for this and think he’s one of the better bets on the card.

17 Paradee (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute beauty for Danny O’Brien. She’s been up forever it seems like but little freshen ups here and there have been perfect for her and with her racing pattern, it’s hard to pen her. It wasn’t a vintage Peter Young but she was strong on the line in winning and IMO is the only horse I want from that race leading into this.

4 Homesman (Bet Now: $18.00) has the right racing pattern to give himself every chance. Resumed in the Peter Young when leading and attempting to go throughout. He fought hard but just felt the pinch late when a close up third. He’ll give you a sight I’m sure and his overall second up form reads well.

1 Personal (Bet Now: $2.60) has the class on the board to be respected being an Oaks winner. Resumed three weeks ago in the Vanity over 1400m here and ran okay, but clearly no match for Zou Dancer, who was okay in the Guineas last Saturday. Does she have enough zip in the legs for the mile or is she wanting further? Market will be the guide.

2 Yes Baby Yes (Bet Now: $6.00) has found form and could well go on with it. Admittedly, it was an average Angus Armanasco she won, but the market liked her, with the gear change of J Kah on, pressing forward. Market got it right, just. 1600m looks a tick, Kah sticks and has the early speed to overcome the draw.

Expecting a more aggressive ride aboard 7 Safe Passage (Bet Now: $20.00). They rode a tad cute on her in the Angus Armanasco and I just don’t think that suited her, so want to be forgiving of that effort. Drawn well with Blinkers first time, suspecting they’ll set a genuine tempo and give them something to chase.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Lightsaber

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Annavisto

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Spanish Reef

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6, 7, 14, 18

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7, 9

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 10, 17

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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