The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday, headlined by the Aquanita Stakes (2000m) and the Belmont Oaks (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (14:39) Mc Polytrack Plate 1300m
I think 2 Optimus Prime (Bet Now: $4.20) is here to play for Michael Grantham. He last raced during the Autumn when far from disgraced at Pinjarra in the WA Magic Millions. First up at 1300m, Pike on…the intent looks quite clear. Hopefully the market agrees.
1 In Good Nicc (Bet Now: $2.25) steps up to 1300m after a win over 1200m here two weeks ago, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive effort. The extra 100m should be fine, she is one of the hardest to beat.
5 Countersunk (Bet Now: $46.00) was down the track behind In Good Nicc in the race mentioned above but I liked the way he kept chasing and finding the line in defeat. He’ll appreciate more ground…doubt he wins but can run first four.
Race 2. (15:18) Tabtouch - Westspeed Platinum (Rs0ly) 1200m
7 Millstee (Bet Now: $7.50) each way for me. Thought she did more than enough when resuming over 1000m here four weeks ago, settling off speed and working home pretty well in defeat. Has a gate to settle much closer and be effective late.
4 Desert Dancing (Bet Now: $5.50) steps up to 1200m after resuming over 1000m at Northam where she just found them a bit sharp but was good late. Like the rise in trip for her, can settle closer and be effective late.
1 Saturday Sesh (Bet Now: $5.00) is just under two weeks between runs for Ash Maley since a win at Kalgoorlie where he was wide no cover on pace but trucking before being clicked up and away he went to win and win well.
Race 3. (15:54) Quayclean Hcp (66+) 1000m
2 Keep Ita Mystery (Bet Now: $3.60) for me. Two weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance, settling off speed and working home well without threatening. Has a gate to settle much closer and gets Pike aboard. Hard to beat.
1 Kay Tee Why (Bet Now: $SP.00) was just fair in the race mentioned above, won by Baby Pearl. He got into a decent spot in transit and was there to threaten I thought but he just whacked in the run to the line. Hit and miss but when he’s on, he can launch late.
5 Pin Deep (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Team Gangemi trained gelding that resumes. His last run came on Jan 10 at Ascot when down the track behind Amaroo Star. Trialled well for the return, can sprint well fresh, watch betting.
Race 4. (16:35) Bisley Workwear (Rs1mw) 1600m
1 Territory Man (Bet Now: $1.75) should be a good thing here. He ran last Saturday over 1400m here, just taking a little while to wind up but surged hard late to just miss. He should love getting to the mile, maps ideally, Pike sticks…good luck beating him.
7 With Discretion (Bet Now: $14.00) ran fifth in the same race from last Saturday. He got off speed and worked home strongly without threatening, but the effort was still quite good. If he can get luck from the draw, he’s dangerous enough.
3 Decision Maker (Bet Now: $61.00) steps up to the mile after racing over 1400m here two weeks back when first up. He paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Awesome Boy. Fitter and up in trip, he’s an improver.
Race 5. (17:15) Happy 60th Birthday Tim Helfer (Rs1mw) 1300m
16 Conducive (Bet Now: $13.00) steps up to 1300m after racing last Saturday over 1200m here. I am not sure she wins but with normal luck, I think she should have fought the finish out but unfortunately she pretty much went around like a barrier trial. If the breaks go her way, she can take this out.
15 Western Jet (Bet Now: $2.40) looks to have returned really well for Simon Miller. He resumed with a bang here before going to Pinjarra where he got a fair way out of his ground but worked home strongly when third. Hard fit, can settle closer and Pike on, he appeals.
14 Talkaway (Bet Now: $23.00) is four weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here, getting into a decent spot just off speed and was there to threaten but just whacked late behind Territory Man. Hard fit, kind map, she’s a must for exotics.
Race 6. (17:50) Aquanita Stakes (L) 2000m
Lot of narrative going around that Like Clockwork will be the new kid on the block during the Summer…gee I think 2 Westbound (Bet Now: $2.10) could be the better horse. He was given none in the Belmont Guineas but the manner he kept on…he’s a rocket I think and if there is petrol left in the tank, good luck beating him.
4 Spellborn (Bet Now: $5.50) was the eye catcher from the Belmont Guineas. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I really liked the way he finished his race off. He’ll eat up 2000m and is a key chance if Westbound is off his game.
8 Special Counsel (Bet Now: $7.00) ran over this track/distance two weeks back where he was wide no cover and the hard run told late in the piece. Pike takes over and with better luck in running, he’s a must for exotics.
Race 7. (18:20) Belmont Oaks (L) 2000m
I want to be with 1 Ladies Pro (Bet Now: $2.15). I thought she was very good in the Belmont Guineas, working home really well from the back. Racing like 2000m is ideal, and if within range, she’s got the finale to take this out.
3 Like Clockwork (Bet Now: $2.80) has the boom on her and IMO if she was as good as what #they think she is, then surely Pike would be riding? She did bludge in the Guineas and visually, caught the eye, but she had the soft run. She can win for sure, but for me, she’s way too short.
10 Autumn Gem (Bet Now: $26.00) ran over the mile last Thursday at Northam where she got a fair way out of her ground but loved the way she kept chasing and finding the line. Does no work from the gate, she is a must for exotics.
Race 8. (18:54) Think Pink Hope Heels And Horses Hcp (72+) 1400m
5 Battle Commander (Bet Now: $11.00) is a good each way gamble in the get out. He ran last Saturday over the mile here when attempting to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but just felt the pinch late in the piece. Like him back to 1400m, should find the top and take running down.
6 Noteworthy (Bet Now: $10.00) ran third to Correct Choice last Saturday in the race mentioned above. She landed in a decent spot in transit just off speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite get there. Back to 1400m is fine, strong late…she can win.
13 Olympic Park (Bet Now: $5.50) should be better for the first up run, which came two weeks back at this track/distance where just looked in need of the run. Better set up here, Pike is on and Blinkers are back on.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Westbound
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Optimus Prime
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Battle Commander
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 10, 14, 15, 16
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 3
Leg Four: 5, 6, 10, 11, 13
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