Racing in Perth remains at Ascot on Saturday for another strong eight event program, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed 1000 Guineas (1800m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (15:38) : Amelia Park Handicap (78+) 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Carry The Nation (Best Odds: $5.50) ran a close up third to Terror Force over this track/distance a fortnight back, closing off nicely against the tempo. Meets that horse 2kg better off here and should take some beating in the opener.
Big Danger: 6 North Ridge (Best Odds: $1.85) is on the back up from last Saturday where he ran a solid second to Muskets At Dawn over the mile here. The drop back 100m in trip looks ideal and is hard fit. Main threat for sure.
Roughie: 7 Zoetomtaya (Best Odds: $15.00) is a stablemate of the top tip who ran behind Muskets At Dawn too last Saturday and wasn’t suited at all by the slow tempo. That looks as though it will happen again here for her, but she only carries 52kg and gets gate one.
Race Two (16:18) : Supremacy Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Chin Strap (Best Odds: $7.00) resumed here a couple of weeks back and closed off very strongly late in the race when running second to Atacama Sky, beaten two lengths. Looks a bit easier here despite stepping up to Blacktype. If he can overcome the tricky gate, he is the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 6 Whispering Brook (Best Odds: $4.00) is a daughter of Hinchinbrook who resumes here for Simon Miller. This filly debuted back in October at Belmont and was far too good for her rivals, sitting off speed most of the way before peeling out and letting down strongly. Recent Lark Hill trial win was encouraging and she draws the paint.
Roughie: 2 Hurricane Jack (Best Odds: $15.00) debuted behind Atacama Sky and was beaten for early speed, so he really had no hope, but I didn’t mind the way he finished off his race. The run under the belt, extra trip and a good gate could well see him improve sharply in a tricky race.
Race Three (16:58) : Perthracing.com.au Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Pounamu (Best Odds: $1.70) was excellent last Saturday over 1400m here when running a close up second to on speed winner Danish Delight, who just packed too much near the line. He has performed well at Stakes level at this trip and further, so that’s not an issue, he draws well and looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: 4 Paris Dream (Best Odds: $7.50) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and tried very hard when running second to Socially Unique, who was one of the runs of the day last Saturday, so the form has been franked, claim helps, should push forward and take some beating.
Roughie: 1 Fo’ Shizzle (Best Odds: $13.00) ran third in that race Socially Unique won and his effort was very good. Gets in well at the weights after the claim for Randy Tan and draws gate one, so he is a major contender for sure in what is a handy race.
Race Four (17:35) : 3 Days Of Autumn Carnival- Book Now Handicap (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Kennocha (Best Odds: $5.50) has won two from two this time, both coming over this track/distance, the latest being a month back when beating home Stable Secret after controlling the race from the front. Not sure she can do that here, but she doesn’t have to lead to win.
Big Danger: 9 Hot Goods (Best Odds: $2.40) was touted as one of the best in WA, but that bubble was well and truly burst when she resumed here five weeks back, sitting on speed and fading badly late to finish near last behind Castle Queen. She did cast a plate, so perhaps that was an excuse? Not sure, but Pike on is a good lead.
Roughie: 2 Classical Prince (Best Odds: $5.00) ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and closed off hard late to run fourth to Miki Two Shoes, beaten 2.5L after sitting wide no cover in the run. He is bursting to win another race and the step back to 1000m is ideal.
Race Five (18:15) : Schweppes- Ascot 1000 Guineas 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Blackwood (Best Odds: $7.00) comes through the Challenge Stakes (1500m) where she just wasn’t suited at all by the slow tempo and not getting much room in the straight when she had something to offer. She ran a beauty in the Group l Kingston Town at this track/distance behind Perfect Reflection and Delicacy…that’s good enough for me here.
Big Danger: 2 Arcadia Dream (Best Odds: $4.00) ran fourth in that race mentioned above and was just another who got back and couldn’t run on as well as expected given the early tempo. Pike remains on her and with a more genuine tempo, she should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: 5 Impassioned (Best Odds: $7.50) ran third in the same race and she was one that also got back and closed off nicely without being a winning a threat. I doubt she can match it with the top two, but she is talented and should be included in exotics.
Race Six (18:55) : Lex Piper Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Kia Ora Koutou (Best Odds: $2.10) looks the best bet of the weekend. Unbeaten going into the Victorian Derby, and while Tarzino was dominant, I have no doubt Kia Ora Koutou should have finished alongside him had he got clear at the top of the straight. He is a star, trial win was outstanding and he is a horse who could feature in the Cups during the Spring.
Big Danger: 9 Heart Starter (Best Odds: $3.20) bolted up in his maiden last time out at Bunbury on February 17, given a peach from Pike and he just spanked his rivals. Harder here, but the challenge is always loved by Grant Williams trained horses.
Roughie: 6 Mulga (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over 1400m here a couple of weeks back and was stuck wide no cover for the trip, but he stuck it out strongly to run second to Culverin, who had a 6.5kg weight pull. Rises big time in grade, but will do no work and looks a great exotic chance.
Race Seven (19:35) : St Patricks Raceday Next Saturday Handicap (1MW) 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Travellin’ (Best Odds: $5.50) was heavily backed here last Wednesday and the support was justified with a dominant win, aided by a lovely steer from Johnston-Porter. He has struggled in the past when it comes to racing in Saturday grade, but now looks the right time.
Big Danger: 2 Stable Secret (Best Odds: $6.00) ran at the same meeting above in a different race and finished off hard from the back to run second to Mighty Blonde. Draws much better, so hopefully he won’t get as far back, and if that eventuates, he is a definite threat.
Roughie: 4 King Of The Palace (Best Odds: $15.00) ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and made up a stack of ground from near last to finish midfield to Miki Two Shoes. Back to 1100m is a query given he doesn’t have much early toe, but the claim and inside gate helps.
Race Eight (20:15) : Visit Stone Motherless After The Races Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Regal Commander (Best Odds: $2.80) ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and didn’t get much luck in the run home when finishing fifth to Miki Two Shoes. Pike sticks, draws better and should take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 8 It’s It (Best Odds: $4.80) has been excellent this time in, winning three of four runs, including last start over 1200m here three weeks back where he got the dream sit and pounced in the straight. Only carries 51.5kg, gate one. Shocked if he isn’t in the finish.
Roughie: 7 Eurosun (Best Odds: $9.00) drops back to 1400m after running over the mile here last time out where grinded away late to run fifth to Socially Unique, beaten just under three lengths. The more tempo here should suit, and if it’s strong, he’ll finish the race off better than anything.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Kia Ora Koutou
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Pounamu
VALUE: Race Seven Number 3 Travellin'
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 8
$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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