5/3/2011 Warwick Farm Racing preview – Chipping Norton Stakes, Surround Stakes

Sportsbet Australia have released their ‘catching the worm’ weekly segment and this week they focus on Tomorrow’s racing at Warwick Farm including the Chipping Norton Stakes and the Surround Stakes.

Chipping Norton Stakes:

A terrific day’s racing at Warwick Farm with the Chipping Norton Stakes (Race 6) Sydney’s first Group One Race of the season. Melito was great first up and her second up record is even better, but although a deserved favourite she is vulnerable from barrier 13. There is good speed inside her so she may have trouble slotting in.

Maluckyday is an untapped talent who has never missed the place and he does boast a win first up, but might be looking ahead to the BMW. Our traders believe Once Were Wild is much better value than Melito.

She didn’t sprint well off the slow speed first up, but did hit the line well and the extra distance is in her favour. She may get to the lead and dictate terms. Theseo first up over the mile is a definite risk, while Luen Yat Forever is one to keep in mind for the multiples.He was off the track in the Orr Stakes but was only beaten a lip in the Emirates in the Spring and now has Peter Moody in charge.

Melito $3.20, Maluckyday $5.00, Centennial Park $7.00, Danleigh $7.00, Once Were Wild $8.00, Theseo $8.00, Luen Yat Forever $14.00, Others 17.00 & above.

Surround Stakes:

The Group Two Surround Stakes (Race 5) looks a definite race in three. More Stawberries should get straight to the front and win. She was excellent returning giving weight to the older mares, but back to her own age and at the set weights will be very hard to beat.

Parables likes to get back, but from barrier seven might have to sit closer. She has an important jockey change with “Brown being one over Parr”.

Red Tracer is consistent and racing well and that makes up the trifecta. If punters want to play wider then Potions is the best option. While not a genuine threat here, she has some talent and will win a race over the carnival.

More Strawberries $2.10, Parables $3.10, Red Tracer $3.80, Potions $21.00, Kim Heaven $21.00, Others $41.00 & above.

Liverpool City Cup:

In the Liverpool City Cup (Race 7) our traders are confident that Triple Elegance is the horse to beat. He’s freshened up back 200 metres in distance and on the limit of 53kg is placed in this race to perfection.

Graceful Anna, although a dual acceptor at this stage is the biggest danger. She has looked good in her two runs back with two seconds and a win is not far away. Our traders are happy to take a set against Pinwheel and while accepting he is a good horse, the weight differential between him and Triple Elegance makes him the ‘lay of the day’.

News Alert can be forgiven for his last start although Jim Cassidy hasn’t been. He has been replaced by Nash Rawiller and is a good chance at odds.

Triple Elegance $3.80, Graceful Anna $5.50, Pinwheel $6.00, Ahdashim $11.00, Pureness $11.00, News Alert $15.00, Others $16.00 & above.

Wiggle Quality:

In the final race (Race 8) Kiss From A Rose can give the day a “Seal” of approval with another win. She was most impressive first up from a bad draw and this time she has drawn three and will get a lovely run in the race. Very Hard to beat. Our traders don’t expect Graceful Anna to accept for this race, but if she does, she is the logical danger.

Jersey Lily looked like she was a run short last week so she looks a danger third up. Girl Hussler was good behind Kiss From A Rose and at Warwick Farm the inside alley isn’t such a bad place to be.

No Evidence Needed is also a dual acceptor but if she runs here, 58kg and barrier 18 make for a difficult proposition and our traders are happy to take him on..

Kiss From A Rose $3.00, Graceful Anna $6.00, Jersey Lily $7.00, No EvidenceNeeded $9.00, Girl Hussler $11.00, Turnstiles $21.00, Happy Hippy $26.00, Others$26.00 & above.

Warwick Farm Snapshot:

Best Bet: Defiant Dame
Best Roughie: Dorf Command (Blinkers on and 1/1 on track)
Lay of the Day: Pinwheel

Tap On the Shoulder: Clarry Conners has a chance of winning race one which is named after him with Irish Times which is also an omen bet with Paddy Power finalising its purchase of sportsbet.com.au during the week.