5/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Chelmsford Stakes day

The Spring Carnival in Sydney continues this Saturday at Randwick with a strong nine event program, highlighted by the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

Chelmsford Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Chelmsford Stakes

Tramway Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Tramway Stakes

Concorde Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Concorde Stakes

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Fitter and on firmer ground, this looks a lovely race for the James Cummings trained mare 4 Athiri (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS). Trialled up enormous prior to resuming over 1000m here three weeks ago where she was wide throughout yet kept surging and finished hard to just miss out on picking up Fanciful Dream. Better suited on a dry track and finds the right race.

1 Musical Genius (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is much better suited at this level. Well and truly a throw at the stumps two weeks ago in the Toy Show and despite beating just two runners home, she was only beaten 2.5L by a Group l performed mare in Sweet Deal. Think she gets an ideal trip on speed and love the booking of Nash. Key chance.

3 Fanciful Dream (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) has been up a fair while for Paul Perry but continues to race in such good form. Beat all bar De Grawin two back before getting a well deserved city win on the board three weeks ago here, just fending off Athiri in a tight go. Seems to handle all conditions and 1100m should be fine for her.

1 Tim’s Principal (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is really well in here and I think is the clear value in the race. He has contested some strong races in recent times. Two back was a strong fourth in the Daniel Baker Sprint on Coffs Harbour Cup Day before going to Newcastle and running second to the well performed Zell. With the claim, he’s really well weighted and is hard to beat.

5 Absolute Trust (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a son of Trusting for Tim McIntosh that resumes. This gelding could be a sleeper for the Kosciuszko because he’s got the engine under the hood to be competitive, but at times can be a bit erratic. More likely a Country Championships contender next year, but his two trials to get ready suggest he’ll run well fresh.

Very interesting runner is 8 Pace Stick (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) for Brett Bellamy. He’s always had a good wrap on him but can he stretch his brilliance to 1200m? He has been very effective at 1000m, which was seen last start at Grafton when leading and bolting up. 1200m at Randwick is a different pain barrier, but he’s progressive and has gears.

6 Archanna (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks one of the better gambles on the program. Chris Waller trained four year old that resumed over 1250m on the Kenso track here last Wednesday and on face value, I thought J Mac was too patient on him and pressing the button, but looking at the splits, he just ran out of condition the last 200m. Fitter, up to 1300m, looks extremely hard to beat.

2 Petronius (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Redoute’s Choice that resumes for the Moore camp. Hasn’t raced since May 13 when toughing it out on speed to get the job done at Warwick Farm in what has turned out to be a decent form race. Trialled super on Monday, lands on speed here and should take some beating against these.

Interesting to see how 4 All Time Legend (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) goes. Les Bridge trained four year old that resumes after a pretty promising Autumn prep where he won a couple of races, including one at Warwick Farm. Stable normally has them soft in condition first up, but no doubt he’s got a decent engine under the hood to be competitive here.

This won’t be a walk over for 1 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $1.40 TOP ODDS) but he’s the likely winner, though I will say if he’s ever going to get beat this prep, it will be first up. Go back to first up last prep. Was declared on the same level as Winx when resuming in the Lightning but he was awful behind Gytrash. But, he’s a much, much better horse this time around and is trialling like the jet he is.

If 2 Gytrash (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is going to win, a couple of things need to happen. First, he needs to handle the Sydney way of racing, and the trial saw him crab somewhat on the turn at Warwick Farm, but better suited on bigger tracks. The other thing he would want is Ball Of Muscle applying pressure to Nature Strip, setting it up for the SA raider. Ticks those boxes and he can win.

3 Ball Of Muscle (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) isn’t up to an Everest class field, but he’s a good audit for these sprinters to know where they are at, because he’s a 1000m specialist, he’ll put himself on speed and give his all. Trialling super, as he always does, and though is ten years of age, he’s still maintaining a healthy zest for racing.

I’m not sure what the GF is for 6 Masaff (Bet Now: $7.00) but I think Chris Waller has him ticking along very nicely. He resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back and was there to win when the gap appeared, but I think his condition just gave out late. Better suited with the run under the belt…question being does he want further now.

It was a strong return from 13 Kinane (Bet Now: $4.00) over 1400m here two weeks ago. The way he was trialling, he was either going to run near last and do zilch, or sit worse than midfield and find the line. Thankfully it was the latter and he was very good late, suggesting a rise in trip will suit and he was most impressive second up last prep.

2 Djukon (Bet Now: $21.00) interests me. Chris Waller trained import who had two runs in the Autumn to kick off his Australian career and he didn’t fire a shot at all, although first up was a Group l and the second run he was on a bottomless track behind Master Of Wine. Trials leading in have been pretty good and his German form is strong.

I’m in seat 1A when it comes to the fan club of 3 Hungry Heart (Bet Now: $2.90). I think she’s the Flight Stakes winner in waiting and could put her hand up as a 3YO Cox Plate contender. Not sure 1200m is her ideal trip, but she’s just got so much class/quality, as we saw in the Autumn, including a super run in defeat behind Farnan in the Slipper. Hopefully class gets her home.

A dry track should enhance the claims of 1 Dame Giselle (Bet Now: $4.20). IMO, I don’t think she’s a miler. She seems more a sprinter, so the 1200m here will suit, like it did when she won the Silver Shadow two weeks ago in impressive fashion from the front on wet ground. Better suited on firmer footing, so she’s hard to beat.

I’m also in seat 1A in the 11 Chianti (Bet Now: $10.00) fan club. Been hot on her since day one and she’s been pretty good on race day, winning two of her three outings, the latest seeing her win first up at Hawkesbury after sitting wide and doing work. She’s very much above average and confident she can measure up here.

1600m is short of his best, but I reckon the class of 2 Finche (Bet Now: $16.00) will carry him a long way. Connections have eyes on only one race: The Melbourne Cup, and he has run so well in the past two editions. Missed the Autumn to keep him on track for the Spring, his trials have been strong and his work between races last Saturday was outstanding.

13 Zebrowski (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully towards the Cups. Lovely return from the big boy in the Winx Stakes, really getting into his work late in a very good resumption over a trip clearly short of what his preference. 1600m is still too short, but the resumption was too good to ignore him. Leading chance.

For multiples, I could certainly include 9 Carif (Bet Now: $101.00) at a price. No doubt this guy is aiming towards the Melbourne Cup, but needs to win a big one to ensure a spot. He resumed in the Rowley Mile and I thought he was outstanding in defeat over a trip clearly short of his best. Wants further, but that resumption was too good to ignore.

1 Dreamforce (Bet Now: $4.20) might well be racing for his career. He’s been a beauty for a number of years, but he’s just putting in the poor run a bit too often, so I think that’s why John Thompson brings him back to this level, to see if he has that killer. Yes, did far too much work in the Winx Stakes, but for a horse of his quality, he did give in cheaply. D-Day for him. Hope Nash can get the best out of him.

Great to see 8 Vanna Girl (Bet Now: $8.00) in Sydney and am keen to see how she measures up. Team Edmonds trained mare that took all before her during the Brisbane Winter and really, should be a Group l winner but there was no QLD Oaks due to Covid. Trial was quiet, but a jumpout a couple of Saturdays back was very good and she’s on track.

10 Opacity (Bet Now: $10.00) is a fascinating runner. John O’Shea trained four year old that resumes and the stable do think he could be a candidate for the Golden Eagle, so will be interesting to see how he resumes. Really went to a new level last prep and stamped himself a Spring horse. Trials have been fair, but he’s a race day animal.

Hoping this track can dry out leading into the last because if it does, think 4 Cristal Breeze (Bet Now: $4.80) is a good gamble. Kris Lees trained import that was seven weeks between runs when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where he was there to win, but condition just gave out late. He’ll come on from that and J Mac sticks.

12 Icebath (Bet Now: $2.50) looks one of the hardest to beat. Brad Widdup trained mare that resumed in the Zakat race where she was back, wide with cover, and finished her race off very strongly when a close up second to the Godolphin galloper. Confident she turns the tables and can sit closer in the run from the good draw.

6 Zakat (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing really well at the moment for James Cummings. Close up third at Canterbury when resuming before stepping up to this track/distance two weeks ago when produced at the right time by Rachel King and finished best to win impressively. Bit more depth this time around, but is third up and should be cherry ripe fitness wise.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Hungry Heart

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Archanna

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Finche

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 2, 8, 9, 10, 13

Leg Three: 1, 8, 10, 11

Leg Four: 4, 12

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