4/2/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Chairman’s Stakes day

A couple of lead ups to the Blue Diamond as well as some quality gallopers resuming in the Manfred Stakes (1200m) and WJ Adams Stakes (1000m) highlight a fab card of racing at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Race One (12:30) : Ian Miler Handicap (84) 1600m:

Back Me: 2 Zasorceress (Best Odds: $2.35) clearly on top for me here. She is a mare having her third start for Darren Weir and she looks set to go right on with it off the back of a dominant win over the Moonee Valley mile last time out, aided by an absolute peach from Lane. Can be a hard mare to trust, but I think we can indeed do that now she has the Weir polish and a high confidence level.
Big Danger: 1 Miss It And A Bit (Best Odds: $8.50) is a handy Tassie mare that ran behind Zasorceress in that race mentioned above and I thought her effort was qauite good given she did a bit of work nearer the speed and then didn’t get much room in the straight when appearing to have a bit to offer. Looks to get favours on speed here and the claim for Mertens helps.
Long Shot: 7 Are The Bungs In (Best Odds: $71.00) isn’t well suited at the weights I think but she is racing really well this time in. Closed off strongly two back over 2000m at Stawell before dropping back to 1850m at Great Western when third to the Stakes performed No Fairy. Form out of that has held up with Logovardi running well on Monday. Outclassed as a winning chance, but a definite place prospect.

Race Two (13:05) : Robert Hunter Handicap (84) 2000m:

Back Me: 3 Hursley (Best Odds: $2.05) was run off his legs fresh at Rosehill before Chris Waller sent the horse to Victoria and the 2040m at the Valley where he ran a much better race when closing off strongly to run third to the potential Group l performer Big Duke. Got a very good record at Caulfield and being third up, he should be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 7 Sir Prospector (Best Odds: $4.60) resumed over 1800m at Sandown a tick over two weeks ago and was quite good I thought when sitting back off a genuine speed and chasing hard all the way when fifth to Playful Rosie. He looks extremely well suited up to 2000m, got the run under the belt and has upside.
Long Shot: Not so much a long shot but 2 Dodging Bullets (Best Odds: $3.90) is on the back up for the Wilde camp after racing over 1700m here on Australia Day where he sat behind the tempo and had the charmed run. Was under pressure in trying to get the run but once Williams got him into the clear, despite taking a few strides to get going, he surged and got the win on the peg. That tells me he will love the rise to 2000m and maps very well near the pace.

Race Three (13:40) : Mal Seccull Handicap 2400m:

Back Me: 4 Oncidium Ruler (Best Odds: $4.20) should be forgiven for his failure over 2500m at Flemington last time out given it was pilot error from Jake Bayliss. Instead of pressing forward in a slowly run race, he chose to sit three wide for the trip, and at Flemington, that just can’t happen with success. Back to 2400m here looks perfect, remains down in the weights, and he does have room for scope unlike most here.
Big Danger: 2 Chance To Dance (Best Odds: $3.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over 2000m last Saturday at Flemington where he looked to have every chance in the run under Jack Martin, and presented at the right time, but the horse took an absolute eternity to wind up but was sound late when third to Goldstream. Up to 2400m looks perfect and stable doesn’t back up in a week unless the horse will go close to winning.
Long Shot: 7 Hardern (Best Odds: $8.00) is quite short in the market but comes back to Victoria after a hit and run mission at Randwick over 2400m where he sat near a suicidal tempo and rightfully dropped out to finish near last behind Admiral Jello. This looks a more suitable assignment, maps well, the form has held up and if he has come through that gutbuster okay, he’s right in this.

Race Four (14:15) : Inglis Premier 1200m:

Back Me: I think 1 Jukebox (Best Odds: $2.30) will make a huge Blue Diamond statement here. He really caught my eye when debuting over 1100m at Geelong where he was hard in the market and aided by a lovely patient steer from Craig Williams, the colt absolutely bolted in despite not being fully extended. The time was easily the quickest of the three 1100m races that afternoon, and that’s a big tick for two year olds. Keen.
Big Danger: 2 Perast (Best Odds: $3.40) is a Paul Perry trained colt who debuted at Scone where the stable was talking him up big time and pretty much declared him pre race. That’s how it panned out, with the son of Snitzel leading all the way to trounce his rivals by a space and run time. Stable don’t travel without success, so keep a very close eye on this youngster.
Long Shot: 6 Coppergate (Best Odds: $10.00) is a handy looking son of Helmet that debuts for the Tony McEvoy yard. He trialled on Monday at Geelong where he looked to go about his business quite nicely in the straight when running a close up second to Can’t Remember. The breed suggests he will come to hand early, draws well and Dunn, who rode in the trial, remains on.

Race Five (14:50) : Ladbrokes Chairmans Stakes 1000m:

Back Me: 5 Formality (Best Odds: $2.70) is a well bred colt that made a huge impression on debut at Werribee where she was backed as if she was unbeatable and ran right up to the heavy market support, bolting up under Mark Zahra to win by over four lengths and the time did compare quite well with the other three 1100m races that afternoon. Stable have a high opinion of her and I don’t see the drop back to 1000m being an issue.
Big Danger: 4 Time Awaits (Best Odds: $6.00) is a daughter of Nicconi that resumes for the Tony McEvoy yard. She debuted in early October on the Parks track off the back of a couple of sharp trial efforts and she ran up to those with a comfortable win, albeit against little opposition. Time was okay and jump outs since have been quite encouraging. Looks talented and should prove hard to beat.
Long Shot: 6 Pagenatry (Best Odds: $9.50) is a well bred filly who debuted at Seymour also over 1100m and off the back of confident late market support, the daughter of I Am Invincible bolted in and was very sharp. Her time was 1.5 seconds quicker than what Jukebox produced at Geelong, which equates to around seven lengths. Looks above average and is a clear threat.

Race Six (15:25) : John Moule Handicap (78) 1100m:

Back me: 9 Cool Snitzel (Best Odds: $4.80) is the very inetresting runner here. Former Moody galloper that had two runs for Weir and failed to fire. Now with David Brideoake. You only have to go back through his form to see how well it reads against this lot here, and his jump outs have been pretty good. Draws to get the ideal cart over from Angry Gee and Meech is booked, which is a big tick.
Big Danger: 5 Chiavari (Best Odds: $8.00) is a tough, gritty mare for Nick Harnett who comes here after taking on the boys over 1200m here on Boxing Day where she got back in the run and closed off well late in the piece behind the in form Rich Charm. Draws wide, which makes things tough, but if they go hard in front, look for her to ambush.
Long Shot: 11 Miss Gidget (Best Odds: $23.00) is a handy mare who would certainly go close to knocking this field off if she brough her A-Game. Ran last Wednesday night at Pakenham and was quite disappointing in the straight behind Adalita. Has run well in town prior, down in the weights and we know the record four year olds have in these 78 races.

Race Seven (16:05) : Ladbrokes Manfred Stakes 1200m:

Back Me: Prepared to take the gamble with 4 Inside Agent (Best Odds: $12.00). This talented colt for Nigel Blackiston raced four times during the Spring, highlighted by a win in the Poseidon. Latest jump out looked very good to my eye and I think he will be a real force come the Australian Guineas. Still, has the class and brilliance to beat these.
Big Danger: 11 Into Orbit (Best Odds: $6.00) is the three year old with race fitness on his side and has to be regarded highly off the back of his super first up win at Sandown where he looked to plenty wrong in the run but he just kept finding under Dwayne Dunn and was strong on the line. Maps well here and has the run under the belt whereas most of these are fresh and looking for further.
Long Shot: 9 Wazzenme (Best Odds: $16.00) is an underrated colt that is first up for the Stuart Webb camp. He ran some ripping races during the Spring without winning but wasn’t far away. Did finish down the track in the Guineas but by then he was a tired horse and I think 1600m is a step too far. 1200m looks his trip and his jump outs have been impressive.

Race Eight (16:45) : Le Pines Funerals WJ Adams Stakes 1000m:

Back Me: 1 Faatinah (Best Odds: $2.50) looks the clear horse to beat despite the weight impost. Potential Newmarket contender that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team after a breakthrough Spring which was highlighted by a spank job of his rivals in the Bobbie Lewis. Looked very good in a recent Flemington jump out and class will take him a long way, plus he is three for three when produced fresh.
Big Danger: 8 Lady Esprit (Best Odds: $4.80) is the hard fit galloper who is in ripping form at the moment for the Ciaron Maher yard, winning her past two, both coming over the 1000m at the Valley, both times ridden an absolute treat by Mark Zahra. Rises in depth but keep in mind she closed off well here one day behind Ocean Embers, who is a Stakes class mare and has form around Star Turn. That reads okay for this.
Long Shot: 3 Miss Promiscuity (Best Odds: $9.00) is a talented mare that is another Hayes/Dabernig runner first up here. She ran okay during the Spring, with the best effort coming at the end in the Doveton when a narrow second to Husson Eagle. Been encouraged by what I’ve seen of her at the jump outs and she does have a touch of class/quality.

Race Nine (17:25) : Darren Gauci Farewell Handicap 1400m:

Back Me: 5 Duke Of Brunswick (Best Odds: $2.60) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets his chance here. He ran in the John Dillon on Australia Day at this track/distance where he was perched up near the speed and fought on well but had to settle for a close up third to Grande Rosso. Finds a very winnable race here and third up, he should be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 11 Show A Star (Best Odds: $7.50) was first up for 19 months when resuming in the Camperdown Cup three weeks back where he sat near the speed and stuck to the task strongly but couldn’t reel in tearaway winner Our Bottino. The query is that he will race flat second up off a long break but he has a touch of quality about him and is suited down in the weights.
Long Shot: In his last ride, Gauci will steer 3 Longeron, (Best Odds: $8.50) who resumes for Team Hawkes. He performed quite well last time in, most of which were in quality events and he was far from disgraced. Jump outs have been encouraging, he maps well and he loves racing at Caulfield. Good roughie to close out the afternoon.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Faatinah

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Zasorceress

VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Inside Agent

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 11

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 11

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.