4/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Warrnambool Cup day

The three day Warrnambool Carnival concludes on Thursday, headlined by the Grand Annual Steeple (5500m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

swiftbet 💰 👉 Download the hottest new betting app

Warrnambool Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Warrnambool Cup

Grand Annual Steeplechase 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Grand Annual Steeplechase

2 Nelson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is still learning the jumping camper hence why he is here and not in the Galleywood. I think that move will work wonders because he does look a near good thing. Declan Maher trains this guy, who is 2/2 over the jumps this time in, winning here two back before winning at Pakenham, with his flat speed coming to the fore. Lands in front, swims, jumping well, he’s the one, clearly.

4 Cotton Eye Joe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the talent to measure up. His jumping needs work but he’s heading in the right direction. Did everything possible to lose the race at Hamilton last time but class got him home. Trialled at Terang a couple of weeks ago and again, jumping wasn’t flash, but the flat speed was notable. If he jumps clean, he’ll be a definite threat to Nelson.

1 Sky Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won’t mind a wet track and comes here as a last start winner having won well over the jumps at Hamilton, where he jumped clean throughout and was strong to the line in winning over the two miles. Given a quiet trial at Terang to keep him ticking over and despite his record here not being great, I think he does command some level of respect.

5 Brung King (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the bet for me. Henry Dwyer trains this three year old, who comes here off the back of a maiden win at Ararat where he looked a moral on paper and duly saluted under a confident steer form John Allen, who sticks. Maps to get a perfect run in transit and up to 1400m again, wet ground, he’s a decent enough price to back each way.

3 Sir Bailey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. He resumes for Maher/Eustace and returns to racing as a gelding. He hasn’t raced since Cox Plate Day when down the track in The Vase behind Berkeley Square. Gelded and Blinkers first time off strong jumpout work, there is clear intent to run well here fresh so I think watch the market and see what it does.

6 Lord Turnberry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a three start career for Aaron Purcell. Market wanted him with confidence when resuming on Stawell Cup Day in a maiden and once Meech found the front, it was race over and the gelding repaid the ride with a dominant win. More depth here, but good racing style and with home track advantage, he has to be respected.

4 Arkham Knight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps. John Macmillan trains this veteran, who resumed several weeks ago in the Railway at Oakbank where he was near last in the run and albeit was held by Taunting, he did make up ground and wasn’t too bad. He is a swimmer so the wet track is ideal for him, he’ll be strong at the end and $34+ seems a big enough price in a race where there are several suspect types.

10 Tsunami Sam (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good upside and swims, so he has a bit going for him. First run for Scott Brunton came at Hobart where he lapped up the wet track and finished best to win and win well, and the win had merit given he was keen in the run. Saves his best for wet ground and he has less convictions than most, so I think he is one of the leading contenders.

9 Whipcracker Way (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. Formerly with Phillip Stokes, having his first run for Gavin Bedggood at Sandown a few weeks back. Market had him relatively safe and after a decent run on speed, he couldn’t finish it off and was plain late behind Lafargue. This track can suit to his racing style and with the run under the belt, I wouldn’t pen him.

8 Toropeak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) each way for me in an open race. Nick Ryan has this mare absolutely flying at the moment, looking to make it three wins from her last four. Dominant win at Seymour last time, giving them a start and a beating, winning comfortably and running decent enough overall time. Gets in well after the claim and 1600m back to 1400m, a truly run 1400m, she’ll be stronger than most late.

3 Frigid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the more interesting runners on the program. Former WA mare that resumes for John Leek Jnr and the Bob Peters horses since joining the stable have gone like absolute camels, so she is the query runner given that factor, but her jumpout work has been quite encouraging, she likes wet ground and can sprint well fresh, so watch the market.

1 Cyclone Sally (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a swimmer so if this track becomes bottomless, she can easily be specked at a price. She hasn’t set the world on fire in three runs back from a spell but each run has come on relatively dry ground, where she just hasn’t been effective. For the first time this prep, she is placed to advantage, and on speed, she’ll take running down I am sure.

I’ll take a chance with 3 Baronova (Bet Now:  $SP.00), a former WA mare that makes her Victorian debut for Maher/Eustace. She hasn’t raced in over 12 months, her last run coming at Albany in April last year when winning a Jericho Cup Qualifier but was subsequently disqualified. Now with the new stable, she has got better with each jumpout and fresh at 2000m, I think she’s ready to go.

1 Hereforagoodtime (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is to be respected given he swims and the way he has returned. He was comfortably held by Globe last time at Sandown, but I did like the way he finished his race off and clocked decent late splits. The big key is the heavy track. He is 2/3 on that ground and third up from a spell, he should be hard fit.

Scott Brunton won on Tuesday so not dismissing 12 The Executive (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He’s had two runs back from a spell, both at Hobart, the latest over the mile where he was near the speed and just couldn’t quite finish it off when sixth to Rich Clan, beaten a few lengths. Has won at 2100m so the trip is no issue and being by Reset, the heavy track should be okay.

5 Bold Bourbon (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, is one of a few good things on the program IMO. Lindsey Smith trained gelding that clearly likes getting his toe in, as seen on Terang Cup Day when giving them a spanking on a bog over the mile, getting better as the race went on. Should land in a plum spot from the gate and good lead that Yendall sticks given he would have had the choice of a few runners.

2 Yarra Master (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Scott Brunton and I think he can measure up here for sure. He comes to Victoria off the back of a couple of dominant wins over the Hobart mile, each time doing work in the run but found under pressure and was strong to the line in winning. Bred to be fine at 1700m and he has a real liking for wet ground so he has a bit going for him.

1 Ferago (Bet Now:  $SP.00), you’d assume, is using this as a prep run, but fresh at 1700m is some level of intent. He really came of age when last in work, which was during the Winter of last year where he established himself as a Saturday class animal. No trial/jumpout from what I can find but if this becomes a slog, he’ll be stronger than most.

1 Stern Idol (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is short enough but for a reason. Flying Agent probably has the runs on the board and is proven to be the best Steeplechaser in Australia but in terms of most exciting, Stern Idol is indeed that. Gritty win two back on the flat over 3000m at Sandown before going to a Steeplechase at Pakenham where he made an absolute mess of them, winning by a space and could have won by double, maybe triple, the 15L margin. If the trip is no issue, he wins.

10 Hurry Cane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a former Kiwi that has done a very good job since joining Symon Wilde. He jumped over the Steeples at Pakenham last time and he seemed to really appreciate them, winning by a space and seemed to jump very well. Tick over trial was nice and quiet and he is a new kid on the block that has enormous upside. Only real threat.

If you want a place bet or include one in exotics, 11 Blood And Sand (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the pony. He contested a Hamilton Steeplechase last time and fell at the fourth jump. Been given a good let up and I thought he was one of the standouts at the Warrnambool trials a couple of weeks back. Highly doubt he wins, but $10/thereabouts to place, I can speck that.

12 Danaustar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top. Maher/Eustace trained four year old that is back in winning form and should take beating off the back of a dominant win on Terang Cup Day. Meech gave him clear air from the outset, sitting wide on speed, but he was trucking on the bog and once she pushed the button, away he went and he was dominant. Lands in front here, 1400m no issue and swims. Keen.

6 Secret Plan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very, very interesting runner. He makes his Victorian debut for John Leek Jr and is another Bob Peters horse, so if recent form is any guide with his horses, the ambulance will beat this horse home. But, he has jumped out really well in readiness for the return and loves wet ground, so I think watch the market.

13 Flash Flood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won at the meeting last year and looks like he’s on track to repeat the dose. He ran a tick over two weeks ago at Sandown when just off the speed and kept finding the line in a solid effort, run down late by Tonneofgrit. Maps to get a sweet run in transit and right down in the weights, I wouldn’t totally dismiss him.

There are better horses than 17 Essential Sky (Bet Now:  $SP.00) in the race but you’d struggle to find one that handles the wet better. I think John Sargent has this mare absolutely flying. Really caught the eye two back at Newcastle before going to Warwick Farm where she got a mile out of her ground and was good late behind a progressive horse, Union Gap. Heavy track, maps to do no work, trip no issue…she’s a great $51+ chance.

1 Mankayan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 2350m. He ran a few weeks back in the Easter Cup where he got a fair way back in the run and was never really a threat but didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece when fourth to White Marlin. He looks like he is being set for the race and getting up in trip with a more positive ride, he’s one of the main chances.

7 Heart Of Puissance (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t been too bad in two runs for Maddie Raymond and being third up here, he should just about be hard fit. He ran three weeks back in the VOBIS Gold Mile and just looked a touch flat, potentially second up syndrome, when down the track behind Pinstriped. Much better second up this time around and gets to a suitable trip, so don’t pen him.

11 Redneck Rum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out for the Carnival. Nick Ryan trains this son of Starspangledbanner, that comes here off the back of a maiden win on Terang Cup Day where he took a while to wind into his work on the bog but he got better as the race went on and was strong to the line in winning. Has that run and win under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

4 Sir Juggernaut (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for John Salanitri. His last couple of runs have come at Sandown where each time he has got back in the run and found the line well enough without threatening behind El Soleado. Drops a bit in overall depth IMO and does like wet ground so I think he’s one of the leading contenders.

14 Soju Session (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks much better suited at this level IMO. Understandably so, they tried her at 1200m a few weeks ago in the VOBIS Gold Dash given it was a $200,000 race and I thought she was far from disgraced in defeat behind She Dances, who dominated from the front and gave nothing else a look in. Interesting she rises in trip, but does drop a fair bit in overall depth I feel.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Stern Idol

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 12 Danaustar

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 17 Essential Sky

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 12

Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 11, 17

Leg Four: 4, 11, 14, 18

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review