4/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, VRC Kennedy Oaks day

Cup Week at Flemington continues on Thursday, headlined by the Group l VRC Oaks (2500m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

VRC Oaks 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the VRC Oaks

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Chris Waller is a creature of habit and he loves to target this race. 9 My Delight (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) has only won the one race, but she is showing good talent. Ran on the Kenso track last time when very one paced but loved the way she closed off late. That was 1550m, so she’ll eat up the extra 150m here and be strong at the end.

6 Parisian Dancer (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) loves to get her toe in so the rain on Wednesday helps her cause. She ran well from the back at Ballarat last start in a race where they ran good time relative to the class, with the first three gapping the rest. Up in trip looks ideal and is hard to beat.

10 Sabre Princess (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a key threat. Price/Kent mare that resumed at Ballarat. Presented to win when clear in the straight and looked home, only to be nabbed late by Riotus Mischief, who was smashed in betting last Saturday at Morphettville and won impressively, so the form reads well, and gets a significant jockey upgrade.

2 Foxy Frida (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) on top. I was on her at the big odds last start at Caulfield and she went so close, charging late from off the speed and just missing out on picking up Sirileo Miss. Gets a good weight pull on that mare here and the small, she won’t be far away and loves Flemington. Hard to beat.

1 Sirileo Miss (Bet Now: $2.45 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Symon Wilde and was scratched from the Empire Rose, instead racing here. She won that Caulfield race mentioned above and she was tough on speed. There to be run down but found plenty under pressure and was too good. Creeping up in the relative weights but gets Willow back on.

4 Ruby Tuesday (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is right in this. Ripping mare for Gary Portelli who smashed the clock from the front when winning at Randwick last time, leading throughout. Good test for her here, but she should get a pretty cheap lead and run a bold race despite a class/depth rise.

I’m really keen on 15 Strapparsi (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) running well on debut. Lloyd Kennewell trained filly that has had one jumpout under her name, which was a dominant all the way win at Cranbourne. But go back a couple of weeks, she was unnamed and bolted up in a Caulfield jumpout. She looks a good mover and I say only runs well here.

3 Magic Carpet (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have her share of talent. James Cummings trained filly that had start one in the Debutant and closed off her race pretty well I thought when fourth to Kiki Express. Should get a suck run from the inside gate and is hard to beat here.

2 Cavalla (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) has the race experience under the belt, which should hold her in good stead. That debut came in the 900m race at Flemington where she found the inside, on speed, and was there to be beaten, but she found under pressure and was too good, just. Tricky draw, but has the early speed.

Waddle your finger, get a dartboard…whatever you use for a guess, use it here. The 1800m I do find interesting with 4 Mystery Shot (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) but I just feel he brings the best form into this. Two back was heavily backed in the Paris Lane over 1400m here when third, first being Derby Day winner Justacanta, with second being Crystal Mile winner Just Folk. He then went to the Seymour Cup at Ballarat and in a sit/sprint, was a pass mark behind Mr Brightside, who ran a game fourth in the Cantala. Williams on, soft draw, he’ll do me as a tip.

5 Djukon (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is certainly likeable here with two massive gear changes, both I see as a positive. First is Blinkers are back on but second, and most importantly, he gets J Mac steering. Race shape was against him behind Thought Of That on Manikato Night. Much better suited here and can bounce back.

6 Huntly Castle (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t done too much wrong in two runs back from a break. Team Hayes trained gelding that produced good change up speed to win fresh at Cranbourne. Then went to the Valley and had little luck. Entitled to finish closer when fifth to Imperial Lad. Like him up to 1800m and from a good draw, is a must for exotics.

16 Espiona (Bet Now: $1.70) is short, but it should be sweet. There was a lot of quality about her debut win at Warwick Farm. The change up speed she produced when let down was very impressive. She’s destined for better races than this and confident she can continue her winning ways.

4 Star Of Chaos (Bet Now: $20.00) is another that brings different form and has a good racing pattern. Led throughout last start on the Parks track, kicking strongly when challenged and fending them off to win, just. Bunched finish there is a concern, but lands on speed and will run a bold race.

14 Romany Rocks (Bet Now: $17.00) lacks the class of some of these, but she’s a likely type for Symon Wilde. Savaged the line to run second on debut at Donald before going to 1400m at Ballarat where she ate up the trip and was impressive in putting them away. I doubt she wins, but if she remains big odds, have to speck her.

Playing a straight bat with 8 Malkovich (Bet Now: $2.45). He resumed in the Caulfield Sprint where he was on speed and looked to be going comfortably under Lane. But Oxley Road had the A1 run in behind and finished best to nail him late. I think he’s a pure 1000m horse, so like him at the trip and down the straight, he’ll be on the bunny and running a beauty.

1000m races are best suited for 1000m horses and 15 Starry Legend (Bet Now: $6.50) is indeed a 1000m horse. Mick Dee rode him poorly a the Valley on Cox Plate. The horse wins if he eased for the sit but instead he hunted up to hold the spot outside the speed and that just gassed the horse. The query will be whether or not that has busted him. Market will tell you that.

11 Varda (Bet Now: $9.50) deserves another chance. This mare drifted as if she had three legs in the Alinghi and ran accordingly, but to be fair, she was nearer the inside, which was quicksand, and pulled up post race with EIPH. The resumption at Warwick Farm was strong so giving her another look.

6 Real Sensation (Bet Now: $6.00) for me. Luke Oliver trained four year old that resumed on Horsham Cup Day and I thought he closed off his race with real purpose late when second to Riot And Rose. Gets a significant weight pull on that horse here, should get three wide cover and be strong late, plus a drop of rain increases his claims.

The gate is awful for 2 Riot And Rose (Bet Now: $4.60), but you don’t know how good a horse is til they are beaten and to date, this gelding is 4/4 to start his career. Strong winner first up of the race mentioned above, and I do think that was a strong race. If he gets luck from the gate, he’s hard to beat.

15 Hickok (Bet Now: $15.00) is in with a shout here. Finished best two back at Ballarat, beating subsequent Stakes winner Flying Mascot. He then went to Sale and did an enormous job in defeat against the track pattern when second to a bomb fresh horse, Bermadez. 1600m is the query but he’s racing like it will be okay.

To me, the Oaks is either class or the Wakeful. I’m siding with class, which clearly is with 1 Elusive Express (Bet Now: $5.00). She tried her heart out in the Thousand Guineas but had to settle for a narrow second to Yearning. The 1600m-2500m query was put to bed in the Derby with class coming to the fore there and I think class will come to the fore here.

The record of Wakeful fillies into the Oaks can’t be ignored so giving respect to 2 Willowy (Bet Now: $3.60). She made a mess of them two back to break the maiden tag at Newcastle. She then stepped up to the 2000m in the Wakeful and produced an electric finale from the back to win impressively. Off that, 2500m is no issue and is hard to beat.

Maher/Eustace at 2000m+…have to include 4 Biscayne Bay (Bet Now: $6.00). I thought her run behind Daisies in the Ethereal had merit. She got a fair way back in a slowly run race and worked to the line pretty well when third. Blinkers first time I like and love the booking of Bowman. Key threat.

With these 3YO Fillies, it’s all about different form, and that lies with 5 Najmaty (Bet Now: $12.00). Understandably, they tried to get her towards a Flight Stakes, but the runs in the Furious and Tea Rose confirmed that short course racing is her go in life. Been given a good freshen up, jumped out super and I can see her finishing over the top.

3 Seradess (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying for Team Kav. Lovely ride from Currie saw her win at the Valley two back. She raced last start at Caulfield and like a few in the race, it was ugly viewing and clearly should have fought the finish out when a close up fourth. Better luck and she can take this out.

17 Xtra Gear (Bet Now: $18.00) can be a knockout chance. Richard Laming tried to get her to a Thousand Guineas via the Prelude but she led and just didn’t run the 1400m out when down the track. She looks a sprinter so freshened up, back to 1100m, looks a positive, and she looked great in a jumpout last week.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 16 Espiona

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 15 Strapparsi

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Najmaty

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 8, 10, 11, 12, 15

Leg Two: 2, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 17

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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