Mornington is where Melbourne metro racing heads to this Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (12:10) The Big Screen Company Hcp (Bm70) 1500m
I think you can make a case that 6 Naina (Bet Now: $3.90) should have won at Caulfield Heath last time. She just got badly held up at the wrong time early on in the straight before getting clear and drove hard late to just miss. Hard to beat if she gets room to move here.
4 Celestial Zara (Bet Now: $3.50) put together a couple of wins on the bounce to start the prep before going to the mile at Sandown three weeks ago where she was near the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through. Good racing style, home track, she’s right in the mix.
5 Kazaru (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Team Stokes trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since the SA Derby when outclassed and didn’t run the 2500m. Jumped out well for the return, she is one for exotics.
Race 2. (12:45) Sportsbet Blackbook Hcp (Bm70) 1200m
1 Bacash (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Team Hayes trained four year old that resumes. He hasn’t raced since May 16 at Flemington when far from disgraced behind a Stakes class horse in Wise Inlaw. Jumpout work has been quite strong and this isn’t a deep race.
6 Georgie Get Mad (Bet Now: $18.00) is here with fresh legs, his last run being Aug 12 over 1300m at Bendigo when on speed and tried hard but was run down late by Electric Elvis. Tick over jumpout was good and this looks a race well within reach.
2 Flying Mikki (Bet Now: $34.00) comes here with fresh legs for Dave Noonan, having not raced since Aug 1 over 1400m at Flemington when back and failed to come on behind Itazura. Fresh legs, tick over jumpout on Monday was quite good, I think his best is good enough to threaten.
Race 3. (13:20) Devilbend Golf Club Hcp (Bm84) 1200m
2 Space Rider (Bet Now: $14.00) should jump on the bunny and take beating after his first up second at Flemington where he tried hard from on speed but was no match late for a horse who I think could be a Newmarket horse in six months time, Jett Smash. He’ll press forward and only run well.
7 Piastri (Bet Now: $8.50) comes back to 1200m after racing over 1300m at Sandown a few weeks ago where he tried hard but on the testing ground, just struggled late. Has had that mini freshen up and back on a firmer deck, he should run really well.
6 Ferivia (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Team Stokes trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since May 9 when down the track in the Proud Miss where it ended what was an awful prep. Given a good break, jumped out well, watch betting.
Race 4. (13:55) Tobin Brothers Celebrating Lives Hcp (Bm84) 1000m
7 Tres Magnifique (Bet Now: $2.50) is the safe play I think despite gate one. I thought she ran very well at Sandown when resuming, chasing strongly but just found Behaviour a touch too good. Maps to stalk the speed…the danger is they fall into her lap, but if she gets clear air, she takes beating.
9 Saluted (Bet Now: $7.00) ran third to Behaviour three weeks ago at Sandown. She sat off speed and was there to win but just couldn’t quite get there when third. Hard fit, racing well, she should be around the mark.
1 Beast Mode (Bet Now: $16.00) will jump on the bunny and run well. He landed on speed three weeks back at Sandown but tired late in the piece behind Behaviour. He should find the top here and take running down.
Race 5. (14:30) Congratulations David & Liz Ransom 50yrs Wed Hcp (Bm84) 2000m
10 Itzazura (Bet Now: $8.50) is racing like 2000m suits. He ran over 1500m two weeks ago at Rosehill where he got a fair way out of his ground but I did like the way he finished his race off in defeat. Maps to stalk the speed and be effective late.
1 Ziryab (Bet Now: $7.50) is clearly hard to beat for Ciaron Maher after his second over 1700m at Flemington last start a fortnight back where he tried hard but just found one better in St Lawrence. Getting towards peak fitness and rising to 2000m, he appeals.
6 Bur Dubai (Bet Now: $16.00) was sneaky good behind Changing Colours when resuming at Sandown three weeks back. He was back near last in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off in defeat. Fitter and up in trip, he’s a definite improver.
Race 6. (15:05) R.M. Ansett Classic (L) 2400m
8 Hurry Curry (Bet Now: $13.00) is four weeks between runs for Danny O’Brien since racing over 1800m at Caulfield where she was back near last in the run and made up good ground without threatening behind stablemate Politely Dun. The rise to 2400m I like and gee this is a thin race. Good upside, happy to lean her way.
4 Grand Pierro (Bet Now: $8.50) comes through the Archer at Flemington, trying hard in a fast run race but felt the pinch late behind Shockletz. If that hasn’t harmed him, he is one of the leading contenders.
2 Taramansour (Bet Now: $46.00) is dangerous with his best. He is another that comes through the Archer where he was ridden too warm and rightfully dropped out. Think with a more patient steer, he can run an improved race.
Race 7. (15:45) Louvretec Melbourne Hcp (Bm78) 1200m
I am very keen to see 8 Hankee Alpha (Bet Now: $SP.00). Former Kiwi that makes her Australian debut for Cindy Alderson and while her form is better over slightly further, her jumpout work at Cranbourne has been elite to my eye and if she brings that here, gee I think she’ll run a big race.
3 Concord Connie (Bet Now: $1.50) is a Charlotte Littlefield trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up after really coming of age last time in, with some saying she could be a Group l horse. Cool the jets guys…she’s good, but not that good. But, she’s trialled well enough to say she goes close here.
1 Terilee (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Michael Kent trained mare that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since Anzac Day at Morphettville when close up in defeat in the Queen Of The South. Likely will spot them a start but be strong late.
Race 8. (16:25) Sportsbet Same Race Multi Hcp (Bm84) 1600m
15 Veyepee (Bet Now: $1.85) picks himself now that race has thinned right out. He was an impressive first up winner at Sandown, giving his rivals a start and a beating in an impressive effort. Harder here in terms of grade but confident he can measure up.
13 Castle On High (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Cliff Brown trained gelding that ran over 1500m at Sandown last time when near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there. He should be around the mark.
14 Victorious Spirit (Bet Now: $10.00) was a total forgive behind Home Rule four weeks ago when resuming over 1400m at Caulfield. He got back off speed and in a race where they went hard a fair way out, he was never a factor. More gentle tempo here, he’s dangerous and a big improver.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Space Rider
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Perfect Ten
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Itazura
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 8, 14
Leg Four: 9, 10, 13, 14, 15
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
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