The Cup is done and dusted, but the top class racing doesn’t stop on Tuesday, with Oaks Day on Thursday at Flemington shaping up to be a beauty. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Have Your Say: Have an Oaks Day Tip? – Leave a comment below.
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Race One (12:15) : Red Rock Deli Plate (70) 1700m:
Back Me: 4 Sea The Sparkle (Bet Now: $7.00) is the one for me. Darren Weir trained mare that is two for two. Debuted at Bendigo and produced a lovely finish from off the pace to win before going to Stawell where she didn’t look entirely happy around the circuit but her class got her home. We see it so often with these Darren Weir horses. They can handle the immediate rise to city grade, and there is a bit of promise and upside to this mare.
Next Best: 1 Hell Or Highwater (Bet Now: $8.00) is an in form mare for the Hayes/Dabernig operation that comes here off the back off the back of two wins on the bounce, the latest being on Grand Final Day at Caulfield when bolting up over the mile. Trial at Seymour since looked sharp, Oliver remains on and despite carrying topweight, she rates highly.
Big Danger: 8 Concubine (Bet Now: $21.00) ran over the mile at Benalla last time out and after receiving a nice sit just off the speed, Regan Bayliss pushed the button on her and she finished off strongly to score a narrow but decisive win. Drawn very wide, but I suspect the patient hands of Blake Shinn will ease her back, get three wide cover, peel and see what she produces.
Long Shot: 2 Tavi Bay (Bet Now: $17.00) is the very interesting runner here. First up for Henry Dwyer over 1700m, which is some ask, but she has been well grounded for it after a couple of solid trials over 1200m, the latest coming last week at Seymour. Ran a very good race last time in fresh. Market watch for sure in a very tricky event to sort out.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,2,4,5,8,13
Race Two (12:55) : Twitter Trophy (90) 1800m:
Back Me: You were in the queue if you backed 16 Data Point (Bet Now: $3.40) at Caulfield last time out over 2000m where he looked home when Nolen pushed the button but he was bloused late by Ferro Nero. He was 1400m to 2000m that day, so 1800m here is no issue and stable is going well. One of the hardest to beat to my eye in a tricky race to sort out.
Next Best: 12 The Chairman (Bet Now: $7.00) was heavily backed on Bendigo Cup Day last Wednesday and despite some awkward moments in the early part of the straight, he eventually got clear and really savaged the line to win impressively and looked to have plenty left in reserve. 1800m here looks ideal, he has upside, and most importantly, a very good turn of foot.
Big Danger: 8 Jennio (Bet Now: $36.00) ran on Moe Cup Day and I thought she worked home strongly late in the piece when running fourth to Curragh, who has since run well under the lights at the Valley last Friday night. She has performed at Stakes level up to 2000m, so 1800m here is no issue, she’s in the right stable and has upside.
Long Shot: 13 Hardern (Bet Now: $51.00) just raced a touch too keenly when resuming at Caulfield behind Shillelagh before racing on Sale Cup Day where he just couldn’t let down on a bog track. Third up now at 1800m is ideal and the only time he raced at Flemington was in the St Leger where he stuck on well behind subsequent Group l placegetter Cool Chap.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,2,3,4,7,8,12,13,16
Race Three (13:35) : Off The Track Subzero Handicap (90) 1400m:
Back Me: I think 2 Onerous (Bet Now: $6.00) looks the one to beat. He had no luck at his first run for Waller at Warwick Farm before going to Randwick where he tried very hard but just couldn’t sprint with the big weight behind Reincarnate. He is proven at Flemington and third up, he has upside and looks ready to peak.
Next Best: 4 Murt The Flirt (Bet Now: $4.60) was an alarming drifter in betting when racing on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield but nobody told the horse the fluc, sitting on speed and powering on for a determined win. Draws to get a lovely sit just off the speed, getting close to peak fitness and he is racing very well this time in.
Big Danger: Liam Birchley has a remarkable record on Oaks Day in recent years and he has an in form mare in 6 Pepperano (Bet Now: $6.50). She has been outstanding in recent runs up north, and beat home an in form type in Monsieur Gustave. She maps well, hard fit, in form and respect the stable.
Long Shot: 10 Harbour Grey (Bet Now: $10.00) ran in a similar race at Geelong on their Cup Day last Wednesday where he sat on speed and gave a really good kick in the straight but was nabbed late by the in form Miles Or Krishan. He is hard fit in super form and he strikes a very winnable race here. Hard to beat.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,2,4,6,9,10
Race Four (14:15) : 3AW Talking Mile 1600m:
Back Me: I was really keen on 6 Pay Up Bro (Bet Now: $3.60) on Geelong Cup Day and he bolted up as if he was going to win but he just wanted to lay in and that cost him the win. Just needs to iron that out to look the winner here because the Flemington mile will be perfect.
Next Best: 3 Marwood (Bet Now: $8.00) ran in the Country Cup on Manikato night at teh Valley and I thought his effort in defeat was very good. He had the charmed run behind the speed and he just got a tad held up on the turn when appearing to have plenty to offer. Doubt that cost him the win but he should have finished much closer. Gets a sweet run from the gate and rates highly.
Big Danger: I thought 2 Mihany (Bet Now: $7.00) was a good thing on Manikato night in the race mentioned above but the severe market drift turned me off and he ran accordingly when finishing down the track behind Refulgent. He has a really good record at Flemington and I think he can bounce back.
Long Shot: 7 Aurum Spirit (Bet Now: $16.00) is a greybeard but he is racing in fine form of late. He ran Pakenham last time out and closed off well late in the piece behind in form mare Maternal, who has franked the form by running a beauty at the Valley last Friday night. Yet to win in 15 attempts at the track, but he has run some ripping races here in the past.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,2,3,4,6,7,8
Race Five (14:55) : TCL 4K UHD TV Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: 13 Exocet (Bet Now: $2.35) was run of the runs of the day on Cox Plate Day in the Fillies Classic given she had to hug the rail, which clearly was the quicksand for the program yet she still attacked the line and finish alongside I Am A Star, the winner of the Myer Classic on Saturday so that form reads so well, and up to 1800m is a big tick, as is back on a bigger track.
Next Best: 10 Rockstar Rebel (Bet Now: $5.50) savaged the line to win first up on the Geelong Synthetic before going to Bendigo Cup Day last week where he got a long way back in the run and powered home to run second to Want To Rock. Lot of upside with this Darren Weir runner and don’t be worried by the wide gate given he gets back anyway.
Big Danger: 4 Anaheim (Bet Now: $11.00) was heavily backed when racing in a 2040m Benalla maiden last Monday and aided by a confident steer from Ben Melham, the colt proved too far too classy for his rivals. Stable did have a couple of runners nominated and they elect this bloke as their sole representative, perhaps a sign of stable confidence?
Long Shot: 7 Zoffman (Bet Now: $24.00) was strong to the line in winning his maiden at the Bool before going to the Geelong Classic (2200m) where he got a long way back in the run yet still finished with purpose late behind Captain Duffy. That race was run at a hot tempo, so that hard run should see him trim up beautifully for this 1800m assignment and the stable is going really well.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,4,7,8,9,10,13
Race Six (15:35) : L’Oreal Paris Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Been waiting for 11 Clearly Innocent (Bet Now: $4.00) to get to Flemington since the Autumn and he is finally here. Resumed in the Shorts and worked home with purpose late behind Takedown before being freshened up and running on Blue Sapphire where he looked a little flat footed on the turn but finished off nicely behind Keen Array. Both races has seen the form been well and truly franked, and Flemington 1400m for this big striding horse just looks perfect.
Next Best: 1 Takedown (Bet Now: $5.50) won the Shorts first up before going to the Premiere where he showed tremendous fight in the run home because he was strongly challenged inside and out but he just kept wanting to win and lifted off the canvas. He then went to the Moonga and for mine, Blake Shinn got the tactics horribly wrong and that cost the horse the win. Racing in career best form and if he is allowed to roll to the front, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: Back to the 1400m will really suit the John O’Shea trained 9 Federal (Bet Now: $6.50). He ran in the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day at the Valley and he just didn’t run the 1600m out behind The United States, who ran an absolute beauty in the Cantala last week to frank the form. 1400m, gate one, hard fit…ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 3 Amovatio (Bet Now: $10.00) started bolters odds in the Premiere but gee I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off when just over two lengths away from Takedown. Hasn’t raced since then but was given a quiet jump out at Flemington on October 21 where he sat last and just cruised to the line. If he gets out wide with a clear run, he can ambush late.
Trifecta Tips: Boxed 1,3,4,5,9,11,13
Race Seven (16:15) : Mumm Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: I think if 1 Terravista (Bet Now: $2.80) brings his best form, he just wins this. Didn’t quite bring his best during the Autumn and the plan was to dodge the spring and have a serious crack in the Autumn, but he is back now and his work leading in has been very good. Group l winner down the straight, thrown in at the weights…keen.
Next Best: 4 Hellbent (Bet Now: $1.90) is the hype horse at the moment after a scintillating win at Caulfield where he ran a freakish final 600m to sweep past Sheidel and with absolute ease. That mare of course won a Stakes race last Saturday so the form reads very well.
Big Danger: 2 Flamberge (Bet Now: $18.00) was just too bad to be true when resuming in the Caulfield Sprint (1100m), attempting to lead all the way but he really found nothing when challenged and dropped out badly. Last time he was down the straight he was four lengths off Delectation and Terravista in the Darley Classic last year. Any kind of form like that here and he comes into play.
Long Shot: 5 General Truce (Bet Now: $34.00) is a track specialist who should not be left out of exotics. He ran over the short course on Cox Plate Day and did a really good job I thought when fourth to O’Malley after copping serious heat on speed and was only beaten a couple of lengths. He saves his best for straight racing, and he does draw near a speedy customer in Bullpit, so he can track him and produce late.
Trifecta Tips: 1/2,3,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6
Race Eight (17:00) : Crown Oaks 2500m:
Back Me: 1 Yankee Rose (Bet Now: $1.70) is short, but on form, she just looks the winner. Produced a brilliant finishing burst in the Spring Champion (2000m) at Randwick, beating home the Derby winner Prized Icon, before going to Everest aka the Cox Plate where she ran third to the two best horses in Australia, Winx and Hartnell. Last two 3YO fillies to have raced in the Cox Plate have gone on to bolt up in the Oaks, and all things being equal, Yankee Rose will make it three.
Next Best: 7 Harlow Gold (Bet Now: $9.00) comes through the Vase (2040m) on Cox Plate Day where she got back in the ruck and finished off okay late without threatening Sacred Elixir. That form reference produced the quinella of the Derby and the start prior, that form produced the Myer Classic winner, so she ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 3 Sebring Dream (Bet Now: $16.00) looks the one to follow from the Wakeful now that Tiamo Grace is out. She was much better ridden near the speed and she reacted to it, finishing off nicely but no match for Tiamo Grace. Doubt she would have turned the tables and I doubt she would have beaten Yankee Rose. Running for second, but she gets McDonald which is a plus.
Long Shot: I wouldn’t drop off 4 Moqueen (Bet Now: $21.00) as a knockout hope. Spanked an ordinary bunch in the Dulcify before going to the Etheral (2000m) where things didn’t go right for her. She had to have a vets test upon arriving and the run she had wasn’t ideal. Tiamo Grace franked that form on the weekend, which is a tick, as has Sebring Dream and Red Velvet Swing subsequent. 2500m is no issue and stable is flying.
Trifecta Tips: 1/2,3,4,6,7/2,3,4,6,7
Race Nine (17:45) : Crown Resorts Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Spright (Bet Now: $3.20) looks the good thing of the week. Let down hard to win a Rosehill maiden that has been outstanding as a form reference with 5+ wins coming out of it. She then went to the Brian Crowley and though aided by a fast tempo, she savaged the line like a classy filly going places. Comes here with upside, she has the turn of the foot and the class. Normal luck and she wins.
Next Best: 6 Conchita (Bet Now: $12.00) ran on Manikato night and gee she was impressive to the eye, sitting on speed all the way before Steve Arnold clicked her up on the turn and that won her the race, beating home a handy one in Biased Witness. Stable have had great success during Cup Week in the past, and this mare will be out of trouble on speed.
Big Danger: 8 Showpero (Bet Now: $31.00) ran behind Conchita in that race mentioned above. She started favourite in the race and she just had no luck at all in the straight, and I don’t think she handled the Valley circuit. Stable don’t bring them over for a holiday and this girl did show very good promise last time in. If she gets better luck here, she will be right in the finish.
Long Shot: 13 Rosa Carolina (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the Crockett on Cox Plate Day where she sat outside a pretty solid speed and though not handling the final turn that great, she stuck on very well in a race where the form has already been franked via Prompt Response on Cup Day. Stable doesn’t send them to Melbourne for nothing, she’s drawn the right part of the track and at $19, I could entertain her.
Trifecta Tips: 4/1,2,3,5,6,8,12,17/1,2,3,5,6,8,12,17
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Spright
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Yankee Rose
VALUE: Race Three Number 2 Onerous
Early Quaddie Tips (Races Two Through To Five):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13, 16
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
$50 Investment= 2.97% of the dividend if successful
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 11, 13
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 4
$50 Investment= 714.28% of the dividend if successful
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