29/7/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Lightning Stakes day

Race has somewhat lost some interest with Ancient King going to the flat race. Still, we have to find the winner and I think it will be 1 Bold Zamour (Bet Now: $10.00). He is a very good steeplechaser who is over the hurdles here, in readiness for the Grand National Steeple. He ran in a steeple at Murray Bridge last time out where Richard Cully rode him a treat and he looked all over a winner but he was nabbed late by Angelology, who was going to run a place in the Mosstrooper prior to falling. He has the weight, but is a proven performer and is the one to beat.

2 Abebe (Bet Now: $4.20) looks the key threat. He ran in a Murray Bridge Hurdle last time out where his jumping wasn’t exactly clean and it did cost him momentum at crucial stages when third to About The Journey. If he can jump cleanly, and be handy to the speed, he’ll take some holding out.

9 Tangara (Bet Now: $16.00) is an Eric Musgrove trained jumper who is just struggling a bit to greet the judge first over the sticks but he finds such a winnable race here. He comes through the About The Journey race at Murray Bridge where he jumped okay but just couldn’t finish it off. Not sure he can win, but a must for exotics.

4 Shakopee (Bet Now: $4.50) gets the nod for me here. Simon Morrish trained galloper who has some really good form next to his name. Ran fourth two back behind Charlevoix before another game fourth at Headquarters in the Banjo Paterson Final behind Super Haze. This looks a drop in depth big time and he should take some beating.

9 Kellstorm (Bet Now: $5.50) is a progressive stayer for Darren Weir and OTI. He ran over 2400m last time out on the Hillside track at Sandown where he got back off the pace and lacked the turn of foot but was sound behind Azurite. Finds a very winnable race here and always respect Weir when he comes to Adelaide.

7 Northern Journey (Bet Now: $4.60) is a tough campaigner for the Briedoake camp who will be doing rain dances for this horse because he is a swimmer. He ran at Sandown last start where he sat on speed and fought on very well behind Global Gentl. I think up to 2500m will suit his racing pattern and he is a definite knockout contender.

3 Bris Vegas (Bet Now: $9.00) trialled up really well prior to resuming at Murray Bridge where he ran a well beaten second to Jayeffkay before racing on the Parks track two weeks ago where he was hard in the market and always looked in control of the race, albeit getting tired late. He has the upside and is the way to go for mine.

8 Flying Krupt (Bet Now: $7.50) is a nice type for the Stokes yard who debuted behind Bris Vegas in that race mentioned above and her effort was okay. Did some work from the sticky draw and while she never threatened, she stuck on well. Has the run under the belt and should improve off that.

10 La La Luchie (Bet Now: $12.00) is a filly on debut for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. I think she will be better over further based on breeding, but her most recent trial, which came on the 14th at this track/distance, was very good to the eye and she looked to have nice ability. I think 1050m is too sharp, but one for multiples.

11 Supreme Polarity (Bet Now: $6.00) is a very interesting runner for me. Talented Pendragon gelding that resumes for the Stokes stable after kicking off his career with two wins during the Autumn. Thought he trialled up really well behind Manuel recently and appeared to be ticking over beautifully for his resumption.

5 I Am The General (Bet Now: $8.50) is a bit of a non winner but gee he finds such a winnable race here. Thought he ran really well here two back behind Seattle Boom before a par performance behind One More Daisy in a messy race. Goes well on the course proper here and gets John Allen steering.

10 Barood (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Sue Murphy trained galloper who has been given a little break between runs since racing here on the course proper where he tried hard and battled away strongly behind the in form Snake Charmer. This does look a strong 75 race, but he is fresh, he’ll be out of trouble on speed and looks the value.

6 Battle Brewing (Bet Now: $5.00) was hard in the market when racing at Gawler (Metro) last time out where Raquel Clark bucked the trend in the latter part of the program. All riders wanted to head to the outside rail but she stayed hard up the inside and it paid off as he went on to spank them. Proven city performer who should take some beating.

2 Strategic Demand (Bet Now: $3.80) is a very capable horse for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard who ran over the 1250m on the Parks track a fortnight back where he got back off the speed and tried hard but had to settle for second to Go The Journey. Goes much better on the course proper and is one of the hardest to beat.

Really good to see 10 Have Plenty (Bet Now: $34.00) back at the races. He is a handy stayer for the Hickmott camp who hasn’t raced since the Spring/Summer where he put together a really good campaign. No trials, but always be wary of these stayers first up from a long spell. Might be one for exotics.

See no reason to jump off 8 Balf’s Choice (Bet Now: $2.20). He has been a revelation in recent times, winning two races here in very impressive fashion. First one came on the course proper before racing on the Parks track a fortnight back where he absolutely walked in. Has to contend with a sharp class rise, but I think he’ll be too good.

10 Affray (Bet Now: $5.00) is a consistent type for Ryan Balfour who comes through the Balf’s Choice race on the Parks track two weeks ago where he got back off the speed and tried to pick up his stablemate but was just no match. He’s nearing a win and he does find a very winnable race here.

If the track does dry up, a horse like 4 Dances On Stars (Bet Now: $26.00) can add some value to exotics. He’s been going okay of late, and I didn’t mind his effort behind Balf’s Choice last time out, but he is somewhat of a dud on wet ground. If we do get a good track, or a soft 5, I think he comes into contention.

3 Manuel (Bet Now: $4.20) is clearly on top for me here. High class galloper for the McEvoy camp who could be a potential Group l horse if he puts it all together. Resumes here off the back of a couple of outstanding trials here and he appears to have come back a very good horse, better than what we saw last time in. Really keen.

15 Bandipur (Bet Now: $3.90) is a smart looking type for the Godolphin camp and James Cummings. Resumed in a Moe maiden and absolutely spanked them before going to Caulfield a fortnight back where he sat on speed and fought on strongly but had to settle for second to I Did It Again. Back to 1050m looks perfect and he should be hard fit now.

8 Mystified (Bet Now: $14.00) is a quality filly for the Ryan Balfour camp who deserves another crack at some blacktype. She ran in the Creswick down the straight at Flemington three weeks back where she sat out the back with cover and weaved her way through late when a narrow fourth to Highland Beat. Fast run 1050m looks perfect and she’ll be strong late.

1 Battle Hardened (Bet Now: $4.80) is a smart filly that resumes for the Stokes yard. She strung together three sharp wins during the latter part of the Summer before running fifth to the above average Another Coldie. Has trialled twice for her return, the latest behind Manuel. Looks forward enough to my eye.

3 Sterno (Bet Now: $15.00)  is loving life at the moment with the Grant Young team. He is two for two this time in, both coming at the Murray Bridge 900m and both times he has come off the pace and let down with a brilliant finishing burst. Up to 1200m is the query, and the class, but the form he is in, has to be included.

18 Cash Is Coming (Bet Now: $14.00) isn’t the most reliable mare going around but for multiples I’d definitely include her. She ran over 1100m at Gawler (Metro) last time out where the track really did suit those on speed yet she stuck to the task quite gamely behind Classy Jack. Doubt she wins, but exotics, a must.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Manuel

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Battle Brewing

VALUE: Race One Number 1 Bold Zamour

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 6

Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 9, 10

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 12, 13, 15, 18

$50 Investment= 71.42% of the dividend if successful

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