29/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Queensland Guineas day

The Brisbane Winter Carnival warms up this Saturday at Eagle Farm with a host of blacktype races, headlined by the Queensland Guineas (1600m) and Victory Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Queensland Guineas 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Queensland Guineas

2 Kalapour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in super order for Kris Lees and see no reason to jump off him. He looked a moral when racing over 1800m here two weeks ago and under a confident steer from Mallyon, he dashed clear late and had plenty on them in a dominant display. He has won up to 2551m overseas so 2200m here is fine, he has upside, change up speed…happy to be in his corner.

1 Serpentine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very, very interesting runner. Formerly with Rob Hickmott, he now finds himself with GaiBott. He hasn’t raced since the Melbourne Cup when leading and was a beaten horse 800m out, finishing tailed off behind Gold Trip. He’s had three trials to get ready for the return and with his absolute best, he likely wins. I think watch the market and see what it does.

Something has to run third, and 3 Dune Forty Five (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the likely one. He ran last Saturday in the Tails Stakes where he got a mile out of his ground and was never really a factor but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off in defeat behind Skyman. He has run well at the trip before and with the small field, he won’t be far away and is hard fit now.

16 Typhoon Tavi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the likely winner. Formerly with GaiBott, she had her first run for Tony Gollan at the midweeks at Doomben over 1200m where she produced sustained speed from the front and smashed the clock in a five length romp. Think she’ll get the cart over from Manhood and if she can translate what she did at Doomben to Eagle Farm, she’ll be winning again.

3 Manhood (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell having returned as a gelding. Strong on speed win fresh at Eagle Farm before going to Doomben where he got off the speed and loomed but couldn’t quite get there when third to the very much in form Situation Room. He is a lead or bust horse IMO so if he finds the top, he’ll take running down.

4 Zuma California (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is several weeks between runs for Cameron Richardson since racing over 1200m where he got back to near last in the run from the wide gate and while he was never a threat, I liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Situation Room, who is flying. Think with a more positive steer, he can certainly take this out.

3 King Kapa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very sharp animal for Tony Gollan that resumes. He really put it together when last in work, winning 4/4 and each time he was impressive. He has the potential to be Stakes class and has trialled up super in readiness for his return. 1000m is on the short side for him but he does have a fair bit of quality IMO and can resume a winner.

1 Osamu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) saves his best for the track/distance and has to be respected. He hasn’t raced for a month since racing over the track/distance where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Gemelon Bolt. There is depth to this race, but he does race well with fresh legs, and will look the winner for a long way.

5 Amity Gal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good racing style and is generally around the mark. Resumed several weeks back at Doomben where the market kept her quite safe in betting and she tried hard from just off the speed but couldn’t quite get there when a close up fourth to Situation Room. She can can be tardy from the gates but with a clean jump, she’ll get into the right spot and be a leading contender.

4 Party For Two (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality filly for the O’Dea/Hoysted camp that resumes. She was formerly with Damien Batters and did a really good job as a juvenile, ending up in the Blue Diamond where 1200m at that level was a bridge too far. Trialled last Tuesday at Deagon and looked sharp in winning. Reckon 1000m is her go so this looks a target race, especially given it has blacktype.

10 Appin Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key threat. Market said she was ready to go when debuting at the Sunny Coast and #They got it spot on as she gapped her rivals and ran time. Kept on ice with this race in mind, she maps well and is in the right camp. Inside gate should be used to advantage and from there, she’ll be hard to beat.

7 Szabo… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) just how good is she? Brenton Andrew trained daughter of Brave Smash that is 2/2 to start her career, both wins coming at the Ipswich 800m. On debut she spanked them from the front. Spelled and resumed there where she looked in trouble but class got her home when driving hard late. Bred to eat up further and she could be even better on the bigger track and up in trip. Dangerous.

Landed with 4 Chairman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Tony Gollan, who does have a strong hand in this race. This guy is third up and hard fit off the back of a dominant maiden win at the Sunny Coast where he let down with real purpose and gapped them late, running time as well. Maps to get a perfect run in transit and confident he can measure up against these.

7 Spirit Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is yet to tick beyond 1000m but her recent runs have come at 1200m and she’s found the line strongly so 1300m here is ideal. She ran four weeks ago over 1200m at Doomben when back off the speed and found the line with purpose late when second to Ekaterina. Like her up in trip and the depth here, overall, isn’t strong. She’ll be hard to hold out.

2 Standing Order (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is seemingly loving life under the care of Tony Gollan. First run for the stable came over 1350m at Ipswich and he gave them an absolute galloping lesson, leading throughout and spanking his rivals in a race where the form out of it has already been franked. If he runs up to that effort here, he’ll take running down from on speed.

I think 3 Princess Rhaenys (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying. Now with Tony Gollan after formerly being with Peter Moody, I thought she moved really nicely in a recent Doomben trial and first up at 1600m tells me there is enough of a grounding to run a positive race. She was down to run last weekend in the Tails but has been kept on ice for this, 1600m on the big track, and confident she runs well.

9 Baltic Coast (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat here for Kris Lees. I was quite keen on his prospects when racing two weeks ago at this track/distance but unfortunately he just took a little too long to wind up but was very good to the line when second to Ultimate Pride. He has that 1600m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead for this and is hard to beat once again.

1 Sir Barnabus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good second up record and can improve off the resumption, which came three weeks back over the mile at Doomben where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Opacity. Saves his best for Eagle Farm, second up…not sure he wins, but a must for multiples.

6 Antino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the one. Progressive four year old for Tony Gollan that was backed as if he was Winx when resuming two weeks ago here over 1200m and despite a few nervous moments, he got clear at the right time and drove hard late for a sharp win. Fitter, up to 1400m, you’d think there is natural improvement…could be a case of good luck beating him and then head towards the Stradbroke.

8 Substantial (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back up in trip for Team Snowden. Did more than enough at his Australian debut here behind Tamerlane before going back to 1200m two weeks ago at Randwick and stuck on well enough on the testing ground behind Democracy Manifest. Back up to 1400m looks a big tick for him and he has more upside than most.

3 Palladas (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in for a good prep. Tony Gollan trained gelding that resumed two weeks back over 1200m here. Market said he had three legs and while he didn’t win, you had to like the way he found the line late in the piece when third to stablemate Antino. Might want another run, but the return was encouraging and should be around the mark.

Banking on class getting 1 Private Eye (Bet Now:  $SP.00) home. He comes back to the scene of his big triumph last year when winning the Stradbroke. He last raced in the TJ Smith where he nearly fell and was eased down to the line behind I Wish I Win. Freshened up for the Carnival up here and his tick over trial was a lovely piece of work. He’s the one to beat.

4 Rothfire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a class runner in the field and that class will carry him a long way. He resumed in this race last year and was plain but is second up here after resuming two weeks ago in the Ascot Handicap at Eagle Farm. He lumped 61kg, he was on speed, he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to stablemate Prince Of Boom, who was impressive in winning, but back to WFA, up to 1200m, have to think Rothfire is the one from that race into this event.

3 Paulele (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been waiting for dry ground and he gets it here. He resumed in the Challenge Stakes at Randwick and struggled on the wet ground, plus at 1000m, which isn’t his go, finishing down the track behind Passive Aggressive. Kept on ice and with two tick over trials under the belt, 1200m on a dry deck, he can improve out of sight.

3 Kovalica (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have a bit on them. He resumed three weeks ago in the South Pacific and was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting, rocketing to the line late in the piece when third to Razeta. Fitter, up to the mile…while his GF is the Derby, he showed first up he has class/quality and that should be enough to get him home here.

It’s hard to get away from 5 The Vowels (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Team Edmonds. He was off a freshen up when contesting the Daybreak Lover two weeks ago. He sat wide no cover but that mattered not to him because he found plenty under pressure and was strongest late when winning. He’s got room for improvement, proven at the mile and if last start hasn’t busted him, he’ll take beating.

7 Waitak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should improve up to the mile. Kiwi raider that was met with market support in the Daybreak Lover. He had a good run in transit and tried hard but just lacked the sprint to go with them late but was close up in defeat behind The Vowels. That was his first run since the NZ Derby so you’d think there is room for improvement and up in trip, he appeals.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Kovalica

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 16 Typhoon Tavi

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Princess Rhaenys

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 9, 18

Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3

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