Nine races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday where it is 1000 Guineas Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (15:18) Tabtouch Westspeed Mdn 1600m
8 Glamouresque (Bet Now: $4.20) for me in the opener. Colin Webster trains this mare, who was close up on debut at Pinjarra before stepping up to 1500m here and really liked the way she finished her race off behind Miss Dominican, beaten four lengths, but was screaming of a horse wanting further, which is what she gets here.
1600m is the little query with 6 Diamond Trade (Bet Now: $2.90) but I think ability wise, she’s the best horse in the race despite being an eight start maiden. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago when back off speed and finishing off okay to run third to Forgotten Jewel. Little question mark at the 1600m trip, but has the ability.
I think a rise to 1600m will really suit the Brett Pope trained 3 Sky Five (Bet Now: $10.00), who ran in a 1300m maiden at Pinjarra three weeks ago and worked home okay without really threatening behind Magic Empire. He’s racing as if further will suit, which is what he gets here, and off his prior run behind Pick Your Battles, he’s in the mix.
Race 2. (15:57) Amelia Park Mdn 1200m
5 City Centre (Bet Now: $3.20) goes on top for me in a tricky maiden race. This Brett Pope mare attempted to lead throughout here two weeks ago and gave a good kick. Just no match late for Eristic in a tight go to the line. Was coming back in trip, so now back up to 1200m, and perhaps with a bunny to chase, she’ll be better off.
9 Nelly Zane (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Chris Gangemi trained mare who comes through the Eristic race from two weeks ago here. The market was relatively steady with this mare that afternoon and she ran accordingly, getting a good run off the speed but just whacked away, running an okay race. Now has the run under the belt, really keen to see what the market does with her.
I think back up to 1200m will suit 3 Mims Win (Bet Now: $8.50). Ran in the Eristic race mentioned above where she was back near the rail where the tempo wasn’t quick at all, so those out the back really struggled to make up significant ground, including this girl. Hopefully the tempo is more genuine this time around.
Race 3. (16:37) Seppelt Wines (Bm78+) 1000m
I think 3 Chix Pic (Bet Now: $3.40) is a relatively safe option here. Handy sprinter for David Harrison that comes back to 1000m after racing over 1200m at Pinjarra last time out when near the speed and seemed to get every chance. Just think 1200m at this level sees him out, finishing a close up third to Why Choose Her. Back to 1000m is a big tick and is hard to beat.
7 Plutocracy (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Simon Miller trained sprinter that broke a run of outs when winning over this track/distance two weeks ago, sprouting wings from near last to win impressively. Consistently isn’t his strong suit, but there does look to be good speed here, so he’ll get his chance to finish over the top and blouse them again.
Not sure what they do with 2 Carocapo (Bet Now: $4.80) from a tricky gate. Talented galloper for Jim Taylor that resumes, having not raced since December 28 when winning his third on the bounce, the win coming over 1200m here and defeating Dance Music. Sharp trial win at Belmotn to prepare for his return. 1000m is short of his best, but he does look a potential Stakes class animal.
Race 4. (17:17) J Beesley Leapling B'day (Rs1mw) 1100m
7 Devoted Star (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Team Williams trained mare that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since October 20, where she was resuming at Bunbury and despite trouble loading her into the gates and spending energy doing that, class came to the fore and she was too good. Loved her trial win at Lark Hill and finds a winnable Saturday race for her resumption.
Up in trip should be ideal for the Luke Fernie trained mare 2 Truth And Lies (Bet Now: $8.50), who was 1200m back to 1000m here a fortnight ago and you could make a case that she should have won. Just got badly held up at various stages when wanting to build momentum. She’s back on track I think, so giving her a serious chance here.
1 M’Lady (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of Reset for Martin Allan that resumes after formerly being with Sarah Childs. This mare hasn’t raced since the Provincial Final here during the Carnival when near the speed and tiring late behind Mr Genoa. Interesting she resumes without a trial, but can produce really good sustained speed from the front when right.
Race 5. (17:57) Lex Piper Stakes 1600m
In the corner of the Team Williams three year old 1 Cryptic Wonder (Bet Now: $2.30), who is three weeks between runs since resuming at Pinjarra and under a lovely ride from Pike, he knuckled down strongly to take out the Magic Millions, beating Tommy Blue, who won last Saturday to tick that form off. Despite sharply rising in trip, he looks hard to beat.
Good little test for 6 Bogart (Bet Now: $5.00) here. The hot pot Tycoon Storm was a mess and didn’t want a bar of racing last Wednesday, so when she came out, the race just set up perfect for Bogart and while visually it was nothing great, he ran some very good late splits in winning. Suited up to 1600m…does he have the class of Cryptic Wonder?
5 Divide The Sea (Bet Now: $35.00) is nominated for the Derby and I think can be an improver here at odds. Just went way too hard last time out in the Challenge Stakes, setting a very strong tempo, and he was a beaten horse on the turn. Willing to put a pen through that outing and his form from last prep against the older horses doesn’t read too bad.
Race 6. (18:30) Kirin Megumi (Bm66+) 1200m
5 Dark Choice (Bet Now: $14.00) is a talented daughter of Redoute’s Choice that resumes for Team Williams, having not raced since the WA Derby last year when well back and making up good ground behind Regal Power. That followed her super win in the Oaks, so she has quality and despite 1200m being short of her best, she has class.
9 Catherine Wheel (Bet Now: $2.35) is on the quick back up for Karen Kersley after racing here last Saturday and if you were on, it was a bit of an ugly watch. Badly held up in the straight when seemingly bolting for a run and clearly should have finished much closer when a narrow third to Shinju. Drawn out, so no bad luck re getting blocked, and is well in after the claim.
2 Danny George (Bet Now: $12.00) is a 1000m specialist, but the way he finished off last start, 1200m might well be what he is looking for. Ran over 1000m here a fortnight ago and really finished off with purpose when a close up fourth to Plutocracy. Failed over 1200m first up, but now he’s hard fit, think 1200m will be okay for him.
Race 7. (19:10) Autumn Racing Carnival (Rs1mw) 1800m
In the corner of 2 Adornment (Bet Now: $7.00) for Team Williams. She was a notable drifter in betting when resuming here two weeks ago and while the market got it right, she never was a winning threat, she did make up ground late and for a staying mare, it was a definite pass mark. Out in trip looks perfect. The query is potential second up syndrome.
Back in trip isn’t ideal for 3 Musical Art (Bet Now: $14.00) but this gelding is not far off a win. Ran over 2100m here two weeks ago and worked home strongly despite not having the clearest of paths in the straight when fourth to Plays The Game. Not sure back to 1800m suits, but he’s hard fit, in form, and will be strong at the end.
1 Aconite (Bet Now: $8.00) is three weeks between runs for Brett Pope since racing over 2000m at Pinjarra where she was back off the speed and tried hard, but didn’t have the change up speed required to go with them late when fifth to Too Close The Sun, a Lindsey Smith stayer now in Melbourne to target some Country Cups. Think that form clearly reads well for this.
Race 8. (19:45) Ascot 1000 Guineas 1800m
1 Tuscan Queen (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the one here. She was kept very safe in betting when resuming in the Challenge two weeks ago and while she was never threatening to beat Suoerstorm, she stuck on well and was closing off her race nicely late. Big tick is the blinkers going on, a gear change that Bob Peters has been waiting to use for a little while. If they have the desired effect and sharpen her up, she’ll be too good.
6 Dark Mission (Bet Now: $8.00) does look as if she’ll measure up to a WA Oaks for Team Williams. She has won her past two, the latest coming over the mile here back on February 12 when sitting off what looked a slow speed but still produced very good late splits and was able to nab Eurasia on the peg. Should eat up 1800m and is a key chance.
3 Pambella (Bet Now: $31.00) has certainly got the ability to take this out but she just needs to produce better racing manners. Despite a strong tempo in the Challenge, she raced quite keen in the run, which left her without many petrol tickets for the straight behind Superstorm, finishing fifth. She’s better than that, so giving her another chance.
Race 9. (20:20) Crown Towers (Bm72+) 1400m
Happy to be each way with 9 Grey Enigma (Bet Now: $41.00), the rising ten year old who has been pretty good in both runs back from a break. Was good first up behind Coming Around before stepping up to 1500m and finishing off his race quite well behind Media Baron, who is low flying at the moment. Back to 1400m from a soft gate, think he only runs well.
3 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $3.70) is an Animal Kingdom mare for Team Williams that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since the Winter last year when winning the Belmont Guineas/Oaks double before a gutsy placing in the Classic. Been given a good long spell and has been tuned up for her return with a couple of decent trials, so keen to see how she goes.
Christmas/Birthday/Easter…whatever else there is, it all came in one for 12 Sophie’s Song (Bet Now: $5.00) when she won here two weeks ago, getting a really good run on a slow speed and was able to cling on and get the job done. Clearly more depth this time around, but has the win under the belt now and you can’t measure the amount of confidence she’ll take from that.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Tuscan Queen
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 8 Glamouresque
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 9 Grey Enigma
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 9, 12
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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