27/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm

Eagle Farm backs up from last weekend with another strong nine race program this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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Going to be in the corner of 1 Torgersen (Bet Now: $10.00), who is on the seven day back up after racing in the Tatts Mile last Saturday where he just looked a bit keen in the run and that took the stuffing out of him when down the track behind Silvera. The blinkers come off and last time they were removed, the turnaround in form was instant. Hoping history repeats itself.

Trevor Miller has 5 Victory Eight (Bet Now: $1.85) flying at the moment. Landed some good bets when bolting up at the Sunny Coast two back before going to Doomben two weeks ago where I took a set against him, thinking his best form was on big tracks, and despite a betting drift, he finished best to win. Back now onto a bigger track, you’d think he will be better off.

Fitter and up in trip, 8 Private Hero (Bet Now: $26.00) could be an improver at odds. He was a month between runs and coming back 600m in trip when racing over the Sunny Coast mile last time where he settled near the speed and tried hard but just lacked the speed in the legs to go with them late. Like him up to 1800m and while i doubt he wins, I’d include him in wider multiples.

I think you just have to go with the obvious, which is the Matty Dunn trained 1 Karaja (Bet Now: $2.50). Very good in her first two runs back from a break before racing over 1200m at Doomben two weeks ago where she sat off a good speed before being fed clear air by Jim Byrne and the filly put them away in impressive fashion. Think she’ll be even better suited at Eagle Farm. Keen.

7 Underwood (Bet Now: $7.50) has been excellent this time in for Billy Healey. Won her opening two runs for the prep in impressive fashion before going to the 2YO Plate on Grafton Cup Day where she was on speed, gave a really good kick, but just felt the pinch late when a close up third to Eiger. That was her first run in six weeks, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

If this was 1400m, I could be tempted to have something small each way on 6 Sizzling Babe (Bet Now: $51.00), but remaining at 1200m, she is one for exotics only. She comes through the Karaja race from two weeks ago at Doomben where she just looked in need of the run. Proven performer at Eagle Farm, fitter and should have a stack of upside left under the belt.

The interesting runner is clearly 12 Malahide (Bet Now: $2.80) for Michael Costa. This filly is four weeks between runs, having last raced in the Sunny Coast Guineas where the 1600m and bog track found her out when down the track behind Baccarat Baby. Back to 1200m I like…I just question what is left in the tank, because she had a couple of hard runs during the Winter Carnival, but her best is good enough.

9 Tardis (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Toby Edmonds trained mare who is a month between runs since racing over 1200m at the Sunny Coast in the Provincial Sprint Final where she tried hard on the testing track but couldn’t quite finish the job, finishing a close up second to Tisani Magic. Form out of that has been strong, she draws a soft gate and firmer footing will be music to her ears.

1 Hirtshals (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Brian Smith trained mare who landed some decent bets at odds when winning over this track/distance on Tatts Tiara Day before going to Doomben on a bottomless track where she struggled in the conditions behind Crafty Cop, but that form has been franked via Stellar Power last Saturday. Keen to see how she goes here back on firmer footing.

I think 4 Wonder Boom (Bet Now: $7.00) will be fine at 1400m. 1300m was a little query with him last time out in the Rocky Newmarket and despite being challenged halfway down the straight, he kicked strongly and in the end, he drew clear late for a dominant win, and that was on a testing track, so IMO, the 1400m here will be fine and he’s much better on top of the ground.

If we can get a decent price, I reckon 9 Zamex (Bet Now: $12.00) is one of the better each way gambles of the weekend. I think Matty Dunn has him going well, but in recent runs, he has been plagued by wet ground, most notably last start in the South Grafton Cup when beaten a fair way by Bodega Negra on a heavy track. Last two dry track runs, he finished a length off Scallopini and start prior a length off Order Again. That reads really well for this.

1400m on the bigger track should suit the Matty Dunn trained 1 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $9.50). He ran over 1350m at Doomben two weeks ago where he had a reasonable run behind the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off in an on pace dominated race won by Snitch. Think the tempo will be more genuine this time around and his best is clearly good enough.

6 Borazon (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. Chris Waller trains this three year old, who didn’t get a start in the Queensland Derby so he was freshened up and ran over 1350m at Doomben a couple of Wednesdays back and I really liked the way he found the line late to run a close up fourth. Short enough now in the market, but with upside left compared to some engaged, I’ll go his way.

12 Rumberella (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Tody Edmonds trained gelding who broke his maiden status in good style two back at Grafton before going to Ballina where he was a notable drifter in betting and looked lost at various stages, but picked up late and was good when second to Cosmos Seven. Up to 1800m on the bigger track, he looks well suited and is a knockout chance.

Firmer footing and back up to 1800m should suit the Tony Gollan trained 7 Kemsrey (Bet Now: $34.00). Failed badly here two back at this track/distance but rider stated the soft track saw her struggle. She then went to the Doomben mile two weeks ago and was solid without being anything great behind Smokey Diamond. Back up to 1800m on dry ground, she gets her chance to find some positive form.

3 Blue Comet (Bet Now: $26.00) is going well for Noel Doyle. Just forget he went around in the Sunny Coast Guineas due to the wide gate and being hooked back to near last. He raced in the Grafton Guineas last time out and I thought his effort was good. Just wasn’t suited by the sit/sprint scenario, but found the line strongly to run third to an in form Charmed Princess. He’ll eat up the 1800m at Eagle Farm and is a definite chance.

4 Saving (Bet Now: $3.50) is ticking over quite well for John O’Shea. Lovely ride from Rachel King saw the son of Savabeel win two back at Hawkesbury before racing over 1900m at Gosford where he tried hard, hit the front, but was nabbed late by a bonny mare and a hard fit, experienced type in The Iron Maiden. Back to this sort of level, I’m keen to see how he goes.

I reckon back to his own age will help 5 Casino Beach (Bet Now: $51.00). Tough winner over 1666m at Ipswich two back before stepping up to 1800m at the Sunny Coast where he tried hard but was no match for Kiriana. Gets good weight relief, draws well, firmer footing suits and should do no work from the gate. Lacks the class of some of these, but has the miles in the legs and is tough.

18 Sunday Session (Bet Now: $8.00) is a beautifully bred gelding who I was keen on first up over 1350m at Doomben but on face value, you’d have to mark him down as disappointing when down the track behind Rich Affair, with Jeff Lloyd telling stewards the horse would be better ridden on speed and setting a genuine tempo. He trialled too well prior to pen him after one poor run.

I think up to 1500m will suit the Natalie McCall trained 14 Red Doulton (Bet Now: $5.00), who ran over 1400m at the Sunny Coast last Wednesday where she sat off a decent clip before peeling wider on the turn and finishing best over the top of Exdream to win impressively. Can sit closer in the run from the draw and looks to be good speed, so she’ll get her chance.

11 Polemic (Bet Now: $18.00)  is a Stephen Lee trained gelding who doesn’t win out of turn but is an honest type and won’t be far away once again. That was the case at Doomben two weeks ago when whacking away to run fourth to Smokey Diamond after settling just off a moderate tempo. Like him up in trip, he should be hard fit now…couldn’t back him to win, but one for multiples for sure.

I think firmer footing and a bit of a drop in depth should suit the John O’Shea trained 13 Southern Lad (Bet Now: $3.70). He ran over 1200m at Rosehill a fortnight ago on testing ground in what looked a strong race, perhaps a bit much for him, and while he didn’t win, he was far from disgraced behind the low flying River Bird. That form clearly reads well for a race of this quality.

3 Freddie Fox Trot (Bet Now: $3.90) is the class runner of the field and should take some beating here, having raced in the Ramornie Handicap at Grafton last start when near the speed and fighting on really well in defeat, beaten narrowly by Havasay in running third. With the claim, he does look very well in at the weights, and with the class factor, looks one of the hardest to beat.

12 Realing (Bet Now: $10.00) is one who I could entertain here. Formerly with Matt Dunn, he had his first run for Desleigh Forster in an open handicap at Doomben three weeks ago where he was near the speed and fought on well fresh to run a close up fourth to Handsome Thief. Think Eagle Farm will suit him much better, as will perhaps a more patient steer.

Really keen to see how 5 Marway (Bet Now: $9.00) goes for the John O’Sing stable. He ran in a Class 6 at Rocky last time out where he was ridden very quiet, against the norm for his pattern, and it resulted in an outstanding win, beating up the older horses with ease. Always have to respect these North Queensland gallopers when they venture to town, especially those that have a decent winning strike rate, which Marway has.

7 Churning (Bet Now: $4.20) is the class runner of the field for Toby Edmonds and this filly does come here in winning form. Placed over 1400m here two back before stepping back to 1350m at Doomben where the brilliance of Lloyd got the filly home in a tight go to the line. Interesting she gets the Blinkers for the first, perhaps to keep her sharp now back in trip.

It’ll be interesting to see what the market does with 11 Hold The Line (Bet Now: $11.00). David Vandyke trains this filly, who is first up. Hasn’t raced since May 26 at the Sunny Coast when running a close up third to Perfect Aim. I reckon 1000-1100 is her A1 trip, but recent trial was good enough, draws to hopefully get three wide cover…she’ll look the winner at some stage I think. Last 50 will test.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Torgersen

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Borazon

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Blue Comet

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4

Leg Two: 1, 11, 12, 13, 18

Leg Three: 3, 13, 15, 17

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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