Brisbane racing heads to Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out half a metre for the entire circuit.
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Race One (1:48pm) : Herbert Smith Freehills Handicap (Class 6) 1350m:
Back Me: Notonyourlife (Best Odds: $3.70) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and she worked home very strongly late without winning when third to Beckham, who dictated proceedings on speed throughout. Back against her own sex now, on the limit weight and she really should take a power of beating here despite the field carrying good depth.
Big Danger: The class mare engaged here is Col ‘N’ Lil (Best Odds: $10.00), who hasn’t raced since the Queensland Oaks when finishing down the track behind star mare Winx. Wasn’t asked to do much in a trial at Toowoomba, and despite 1350m being short of her best, she has the class factor to take care of these provided she doesn’t get outpaced early.
Roughie: Rosenet (Best Odds: $10.00) took on the boys here a couple of weeks back and unfortunately for her supporters, she was stuck wide no cover for the entire trip when fifth to all the way winner Didntcostalot. Back to her own sex now and draws much better.
Race Two (2:23pm) : Tyremil Handicap (Class 6) 1350m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Best Of The Rest and Beckham (Best Odds: $1.65). Just due to the extra race fitness and the way the race will be run, I’ll lean towards Beckham. Beckham should up near the speed, like he was last start when leading all the way over this track/distance. Well weighted after the claim for in form apprentice James Orman and should take some beating.
Big Danger: Best Of The Rest (Best Odds: $6.50) produced one of the runs of the day at the meeting run and won a couple of weeks back when flashing home from last to run second to Didntcostalot, who was far too good on speed throughout. Drawn wide, and second up after a break, so they are the two negatives, but the first up run was too good to ignore.
Roughie: Coworth Park (Best Odds: $34.00) resumes here for Robert Heathcoate after nearly a year off the racing scene. He hasn’t raced since October 11 when winning over 2000m at this track, leading all the way. Fitness levels are unknown, but stayers can produce a run first up after a long break and he is only carrying 52kg.
Race Three (3:00pm) : Best Security Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Going with Dandy One (Best Odds: $5.00). This Les Ross trained gelding looked very impressive in winning over this track/distance a couple of weeks back, beating home a similar field to the one he faces here. Drops big time in weight and is in great form.
Big Danger: Le Dolce Vita (Best Odds: $7.00) is unbeaten in three career runs to date, the latest coming over 1000m at the Sunny Coast when proving too good for Offensive Play, who ran well I thought last Sunday at the same track. Harder here, but is on the limit and has upside.
Roughie: Ken Russell winner Big Tree (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes here and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse run a ripper here fresh. His trials have been sharp, and appears as though he is forward enough. Look for him to charge late.
Race Four (3:38pm) : McGrath Ascot Handicap 2200m:
Back Me: Lock’s Legend (Best Odds: $2.70) for me here. He produced a big effort IMO to win last time out over 2000m given it was his first run beyond a mile yet he just kept finding under riding and got the job done well. Up to 2200m now, so it’s a worry, but you can’t knock his winning form at the moment.
Big Danger: Punta Norte (Best Odds: $3.50) is in a similar position to Lock’s Legend. He is unknown at the distance but is in red hot winning form. He has won his past two starts, and though he has been impressive, he has been given the lead on a platter at each outing. Hardest test to date, but while he is in this vein of form, now is the time to test him out.
Roughie: Hora Sexta (Best Odds: $8.00) plugged through the mud best to win two back at the Gold Coast before coming here and he looked as though he was going to pick up Lock’s Legend, but he couldn’t quite get past that in form galloper. He has more upside than a majority of these, in form and he has form at this distance, which is another advantage.
Race Five (4:17pm) : Cardno Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: I was keen on Architect (Best Odds: $4.00) when he resumed six weeks back, and he just powered home from last to win impressively. He then ran few weeks later and was most disappointing behind Didntcostalot, but that horse did win a fortnight back to frank the form. This race race does have depth, but I am confident he can bounce back here.
Big Danger: Didntcostalot (Best Odds: $3.10) seems to be loving the sunshine state life under the care of Tony Gollan. He has won his past two starts in impressive, including a win over Architect two back before pinging out here a fortnight back and showing dazzling speed throughout to win impressively. Harder here, but he is white hot at the moment and will be hard to run down.
Roughie: Saluter (Best Odds: $9.50) resumed here a couple of weeks back in that Didntcostalot race and he seemingly had his chance when second. But he was first up, so the effort had merit. The worry with him is that he is winless in eight runs at Doomben, but the first up run was encouraging and he could turn the tables with luck in running.
Race Six (4:57pm) : Ingal Civil Products Plate (Class 6) 1050m:
Back Me: Keen here on the Karaka Millions winner Hardline (Best Odds: $5.50), who was fantastic when resuming a couple of weeks back at the Sunny Coast when given an absolute peach from Browne to win and win quite comfortably. Takes on the older horses, but there is so much upside, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he comes to Melbourne for the Carnival.
Big Danger: Bearskin (Best Odds: $9.00) is a talented type who resumes here for Tony Gollan. He had two runs last time, resulting in a win at the Sunny Coast followed up by an unplaced effort in the Gold Coast Guineas. No trials, but his class is almost enough for him to get home here. Wide gate is the major negative.
Roughie: Charge Account (Best Odds: $6.00) is the unknown runner. He hasn’t raced for four months and resumes without a trial, but his form last time in was pretty solid and he is a first up winner before. He will be better at 1200m, but he can certainly perform well here
Race Seven (5:37pm) : SQS Haulage Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: Giving Sony Legend (Best Odds: $7.50) one more chance here. He attempted to lead all the way here a couple of weeks back and he felt the pinch late when running fourth to Primal Flight. Senior rider takes over now and should get every chance from the good gate.
Big Danger: Talented mare Sarisara (Best Odds: $4.40) resumed over this track/distance a fortnight ago and thankfully for her supporters, she got the bob of the head to win narrowly in a thrilling finish. She should take good improvement off that outing and Tim Bell takes over, and he rides the mare very well.
Roughie: Kudero (Best Odds: $7.00) has had a couple of runs now in Queensland for Barry Lockwood, and there was plenty to like about the win he produced last start at the Gold Coast. He loomed outside the leader and though there was a brief struggle, he surged late and won very impressively. He can handle the rise in class and gets a gun barrier.
Race Eight (6:13pm) : Secutor Securities Handicap (75) 1600m:
Back Me: Lucky Lucre (Best Odds: $6.50) for me here. He was having his first run in a month when being quite luckless over 1350m here when fourth to Beckham, getting held up badly in the straight and not being allowed to build up momentum. Back up to the mile should suit this horse and he looks one of the hardest to beat in a tricky affair.
Big Danger: Quick Snitzel (Best Odds: $2.60) produced one of the runs of the day a fortnight back over this track/distance when working home strongly to finish second to Punta Norte, who walked them in front and really gave the backmarkers no hope, but Quick Snitzel was fantastic. He is bursting to win a race, and I think he gets his chance here.
Roughie: Mr Scary (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over this distance at the Sunny Coast three weeks back where he just failed in picking up Comacina. That was his third run this time, and the effort was quite good under the circumstances. The weather will determine how he goes here. If it rains, he comes right into the mix.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Architect
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Hardline
VALUE: Race Six Number 5 Charge Account
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 14
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
$50 Investment= 14.88% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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