One of the premier race days on the Adelaide racing calender will be run and won this Saturday at Morphettville with the running of ‘Super Saturday’, highlighted by a couple of $400,000 Group l events, the Schweppes Oaks (2000m) and the Sportingbet Classic (1200m).
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Race One (12:35) : Medallion Homes Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Dylanson (Best Odds: $1.65) was a top first up winner here first up, then took on the older horses at Caulfield and was far from disgraced when sixth to Kitten On The Run. Drops big time in class here, up to an ideal trip now, fitter…looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: Ominous (Best Odds: $5.50) is yet to show a great deal since coming from Europe for Nigel Blackiston. I thought he was okay without going overboard at Sportingbet Park behind Taiyoo, where that horse dictated from the front and sprinted clear late. 2000m is definitely a plus, and he strikes a very winnable race if he brings his A-Game.
Roughie: Weekend Hussy (Best Odds: $26.00) was good from the back when resuming on a heavy track at Gawler. Quickly up to 2000m, did have solid form last campaign and is unbeaten in two previous second up attempts. In a pretty thin race outside the top two, she could surprise.
Race Two (13:10) : 7 News Handicap (90) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Mighty Like (Best Odds: $2.40) was given a beaut ride by Matty Neilson to win on the Parks track last time out, sitting behind the leader and getting a narrow split in the straight, then bursting clear to score a top victory. Has to step it up here, but is in a real purple patch and should get the gun run from the rails draw.
Big Danger: River’s Lane (Best Odds: $9.00) was a surprise blacktype winner on Adelaide Cup Day, leading all the way in the C S Hayes Cup before again attempting to lead all the way and getting tired late when a narrow fourth to the above average Saint Or Sinner. Looks as if he’ll get a great time in front here, and with the claim for boom Adelaide apprentice Caitlin Forrest, he gets in well at the weights.
Roughie: Streetcar Valour (Best Odds: $3.00) was massive last Saturday at Oakbank, sitting three and four wide with no cover all the way, and at Oakbank, that pretty much puts a line through your winning chances yet he kicked hard in the straight, only to go down by Saturday Affair, who saved all the ground near the fence. Yet to be tried beyond 1400m, but he is racing as if he’ll lap it up.
Race Three (13:45) : Queen Adelaide Stakes 1050m Form Guide
Back Me: Tender (Best Odds: $5.00) was a real eye catcher in the Dequetteville on the Parks circuit, coming wide on the turn and rattling to the line late for third. Looks as if he’ll appreciate further, so 1050m is a slight concern, but they should quick in front for her and if that does indeed eventuate, she’ll be finishing off the race better than anything.
Big Danger: Wroclaw (Best Odds: $4.40) was on debut in that race off the back of a couple of strong trial efforts and she also worked to the line well albeit she did stick to the fence and got the lucky breaks hence why Tender is on top for me. Still, that was her first run, so she should have some upside and the stable have had a wonderful season with their youngsters.
Roughie: Eclair Choice (Best Odds: $2.70) was long odds on when he resumed on the Parks track and recorded a soft win. Looks to have plenty of ability and finds a nice race to take the step up to blacktype company. Hard to beat.
Race Four (14:23) : Chairman’s Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m a real fan of Kincaple Chief (Best Odds: $13.00) for David Hayes. He has really caught the eye in each outing this prep, and put it all together last start over the mile at Sportingbet Park, sitting off the speed and powering clear in the straight for a dominant win. The wide barrier will be no issue as his best ridden well off the speed and saved for the straight. He is on the up and certainly has the talent and scope to win this.
Big Danger: Kushadasi (Best Odds: $2.80) was enormous in the Port Adelaide Guineas, coming very wide on the turn and savaging the line late to run a half head second to Gamblin’ Guru. He will certainly run the 2000m out and is the one to beat from that form line.
Roughie: Excites Zelady (Best Odds: $12.00) stormed home from well back in the Port Adelaide Guineas to run a close up sixth to Gamblin’ Guru. Once upon a time he was just a pure sprinter, but with age he is getting a touch more dour and is appreciating the longer races, so 2000m should pose no concerns and he has some really good form behind him.
Race Five (14:58) : Queen Of The North Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Kazanluk (Best Odds: $13.00) teased punters during the Spring in some solid mares races, then went to the Zipping Classic and was just horrendous. She resumed at Flemington and was really good late to run fourth. Form has held up from that race, and on her Spring form, she looks the one to beat. Only worry is that she hasn’t won for over a year, but she is knocking on the door.
Big Danger: D-Day for Floria (Best Odds: $7.50) this prep I feel. Solid return at Flemington, then had no luck at the Valley before being well held in the Emancipation on a wet track. Up to the mile on a firm track, back to racing anti clockwise, weak field. She gets her chance, but is very hard to back with confidence, as is the top tip, but both have class on their side.
Roughie: Maybe Discreet (Best Odds: $8.50) took up the running in the City Of Adelaide and didn’t give any of her rivals a look in, leading all the way for a good win. That was her first decent run since winning the race down below last year. She might have been flattered by the on pace favoured Parks track in that City Of Adelaide win, so I’d like to see her do it again on a more true surface.
Race Six (15:35) : Schweppes Oaks 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to put In Masquerade (Best Odds: $10.00) on top. Her last two runs on this track have both been fantastic, storming home late to run second to our roughie in the Laelia then not really appreciating racing between horses when second to Girl In Flight in the Schweppes Stakes. Out of all the major players in betting, she appears to have the most upside and races as if the 2000m will suit.
Big Danger: Girl In Flight (Best Odds: $4.20) was given a gun steer by Allen to win the Schweppes Stakes, stalking the speed all the way and waiting as long as possible before letting his filly down to score a top victory. I think the wide barrier will ensure she is ridden well off the pace, which is what she needs in order to run a strong 2000m I feel. She is the best filly in the race, but is suspect at the distance. Still, she rates as a massive chance.
Roughie: Every Faith (Best Odds: $26.00) put in two horrendous runs to kick off her campaign, then stunned most with a win in the Laelia. I thought that may have been a fluke, but she backed it up behind Girl In Flight with an eye catching fifth after being near last in the run. She will run a very strong 2000m and Robert Smerdon has a great record when sending his horses to South Australia.
Race Seven (16:15) : Sportingbet Classic 1200m Form Guide
Big Danger: Platelet (Best Odds: $6.00) is a deserved top pick in betting after a dominant win first up at the Valley, then was probably left in front a touch too early in the Irwin and was left a sitting shot for Driefontein to drop late. Rawiller will need to hold her up for a few strides more than what Lane did because her burst doesn’t last long. She is going well enough to win again and the stable is in sparkling form.
Roughie: It might have only been an open handicap down the Flemington straight, but the arrogance of the win of Shamal Wind (Best Odds: $7.00) was quite devastating given she had to carry 59.5kg and is a pony size mare. She has a lethal turn of foot when smothered away and presented at the right time, and Ryan Maloney definitely has the key to this mare.
Roughie: The give in the ground will really suit Villa Verde, who has clearly been the best backed runner in the race. Probably found the class a bit rich in the T J Smith, but her run prior in the Galaxy was fantastic. Back to her own sex here, and a firmer track should see be right in the finish.
Race Eight (16:55) : McKay Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Tardy starts are costing Esprit De Bullet (Best Odds: $17.00) badly in recent starts. Hit the line very nicely behind Snitzerland in the Lightning, then missed the start in the Manihi, finishing third, then was desperately unlucky in the Irwin, again missing the kick and being forced wide on the turn and ended up in sixth. He is flying at the moment, but just can’t get luck, largely his own doing. With normal luck, he’ll go very close.
Big Danger: Nearest To Pin (Best Odds: $19.00) was huge at Caulfield last time out, sitting with no cover at his debut run at the Heath and sticking on so well to run a close third to Group l performer from NZ, Natuzzi. Back home now, should spear over and find a spot just off the pace, and is a definite chance in a race like this.
Roughie: Essay Raider (Best Odds: $5.50) sat wide with cover in the Irwin and worked to the line nicely late behind Driefontein. Usually races flat second up, so that’s the concern heading into this, but the stable is the in form stable in South Australia at the moment, so they have to be respected on their home track.
Best Bet: Race Two Number 8 Mighty Like (Best Odds: $2.40)
Next Best: Race One Number 2 Dylanson (Best Odds: $1.60)
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 5 In Masquerade (Best Odds: $9.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 14
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Leg Three: 1, 3, 11
Leg Four: 3, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13
$50 Investment = 9.25% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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