The most famous picnic carnival in the world is at Oakbank and the 2016 edition kicks off this Saturday with a ripping program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:08) : Big Screen Video Handicap (64) 1050m:
Back Me: 4 Malmoosa (Best Odds: $5.50) on top for me here, but with next to no confidence. She is a filly on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who hasn’t caught my attention at the jump outs, but you have to respect the stable when they bring them over.
Big Danger: 2 Cayman Dayze (Best Odds: $1.90) resumed at Murray Bridge a tick over three weeks back and was too nippy for her rivals and won with a bit of authority. Just has to overcome the tricky draw to figure in the finish here.
Roughie: 6 Wreaked (Best Odds: $8.00) is a daughter of Wonderful World on debut for Jon O’Connor. She trialled on Monday on the Parks track and looked very good I thought. Not easy to win on debut at this tricky track, but she looks above average.
Race Two (13:43) : Golding Wines Handicap (82) 3600m:
Back Me: 3 Dane Hussler (Best Odds: $2.70) is another Hayes/Dabernig galloper that comes to Oakbank. She ran over 3000m at Ladbrokes Park last time out and stuck on alright behind impressive winner Bayanova. Doesn’t have to improve much to look the winner here.
Big Danger: 1 Celtic Prince (Best Odds: $2.30) ran in the Adelaide Cup (3200m) and was just outclassed behind Purple Smile. Has tuned up for this with a solid trial over the sticks here on Monday, so the 3600m will be no issue and he will just run all day.
Roughie: The race really falls away outside this pair. The next best would be 4 Artful Diva (Best Odds: $6.00), who ran fifth over 2400m a couple of weeks back on the Parks track behind Banksters Bonus. Trip, like with all of these, is a query, but gets the services of Jason Holder and draws a soft gate.
Race Three (14:18) : Neutrog Young Members Hurdle (120) 2900m:
Back Me: 3 Auld Burns (Best Odds: $2.50) looks just about a good thing on the program. His three runs on the flat this time in have been very good, the latest over 1950m on the Parks track when second to Gladstone. Trialled well here over the jumps on Monday and don’t be alarmed that Pateman has jumped off from the trial because I suspect he couldn’t get down to the weight.
Big Danger: 6 Sir Dylan (Best Odds: $15.00) made his jumping debut here a couple of weeks back and stuck to the task pretty well I thought when third to About The Journey. Trialled here on Monday and wasn’t too bad behind Whincup. He’ll run all day and is a must for exotics.
Roughie: 9 Mutajara (Best Odds: $51.00) is the interesting one. He dropped out badly behind About The Journey and was beaten 100m+, but if you watch his trials, you’d say he’d be an even money pop. He has the Musgrove polish and is getting fitter. $51 looks silly overs.
Race Four (14:58) : Hughes Limousines Onkaparinga Cup 2150m:
Back Me: 2 Evangelist (Best Odds: $6.50) hasn’t raced for a month since racing over 1400m on the Parks track when running a disappointing seventh to Redeem Bounty. The break and up in trip are the queries, but he is too good of a horse on his day, and on his best form, he’d clearly beat these.
Big Danger: 5 Loncava (Best Odds: $4.80) ran last Saturday over 1950m on the Parks track and scored a dominant win, aided by a lovely steer from leading apprentice Caitlin Jones, who remains on, and her 2kg claim means the horse will only carry 52kg, and he looks the threat to his stablemate.
Roughie: 6 Flying Casino (Best Odds: $4.80) ran a couple of weeks back on the Parks circuit and closed off alright when running fourth to Gladstone. He has plenty of upside left and will love the step up in trip and Holder rides the horse very well.
Race Five (15:38) : Channel 7 Handicap (75) 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Shaf (Best Odds: $3.20) could continue a potential monster day for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. He had a 37 day break before racing on the Parks track a fortnight back when given a lovely ride from Yendall to win impressively. Can only see upside and he looks the clear horse to beat despite drawing wide.
Big Danger: 9 Lady Andress (Best Odds: $4.80) ran fourth behind Shaf in that race mentioned above and her effort was very good from near last in the run, taking off significant ground in the straight. Had she drawn a better gate, I’d probably have her on top, but despite that, she is still a definite leading contender.
Roughie: 2 El Prado Gold (Best Odds: $10.00) is getting on in years, but continues to race very well. He ran over 1200m at Morphettville three weeks back and closed off nicely behind Call Me Curtis, who ran well in the Bendigo Guineas last weekend, so the form reads well and this horse should also have upside.
Race Six (16:18) : UBET Oakbank Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Jennyfromtheblock (Best Odds: $15.00) is a favourite of mine because she jumps on speed and just doesn’t give in. She won first up at the Valley, then went back home and tried her guts out when a narrow second to Tarco on Adelaide Cup Day. Had she drawn closer, I’d declare her, but even with the wide gate, she has enough speed to ping over and take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Husson Eagle (Best Odds: $3.60) was given a beaut steer from Michelle Payne to win on Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast before coming back to Melbourne for the Rubiton where he was wide no cover and just run off his legs behind Heatherly in what has turned out to be a pretty tidy form race. Gate one and a dry track are the big positives for this horse.
Roughie: 1 Riziz (Best Odds: $7.50) resumed at Morphettville and tried hard when running a close second to Dylanson. Paul Gatt rides the horse very well and he does have the race fitness now. Wide gate is the big negative but he loves racing at Oakbank.
Race Seven (16:58) : Thomas Foods International Von Doussa Steeplechase 3250m:
Back Me: 2 Lord Of The Song (Best Odds: $4.40) looks the way to go here. His two runs on the flat to tune up have been fantastic, the latest at Ballarat when closing off strongly behind Proclamation. Trialled well here on Monday and Pateman is back on.
Big Danger: 3 Nishiazabu (Best Odds: $5.00) is the local hope who bolted up here last start, leading throughout to win by over 20 lengths in a really dominant display. Much harder here, but he has the race fitness on his side as well as recent success at the track.
Roughie: 5 Geeceegazza (Best Odds: $61.00) ran over the sticks at the Bool last time out and tried hard when running third to a potential top class jumper in Arwoc, beaten ten lengths. The firm track will suit him, he’ll stay all day and is another that seems ridiculous overs.
Race Eight (17:38) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap (82) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Mr Backchat (Best Odds: $4.40) drops a bit in grade after contesting the Mildura Cup (1400m) last time out where he had to chase a hot speed and faded late when fifth to Gingerboy. Looks well placed here after the claim and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 11 Dugan (Best Odds: $4.60) ran a couple of weeks back at Ballarat and tried hard when running a close up fourth to a potential Stakes horse in Recalculate. Right down in the weights and gets the services of Michelle Payne, so he should take some beating.
Roughie: 4 Counter Spin (Best Odds: $5.50) ran over 1200m on the Parks track a couple of weeks back and closed off pretty well in a race dominated by those near the speed when fifth to Bay Road. He’ll love the step up to 1400m and is a winner at Oakbank, which is a definite advantage.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Lord Of The Song
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Auld Burns
VALUE: Race Six Number 5 Jennyfromtheblock
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
Leg Three: 2, 3
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11
$50 Investment= 11.57% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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