A strong card of Sydney racing this Austrtalia Day will be run and won at Randwick, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed Australia Day Cup (2400m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:20) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (71) 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Trafalgar (Best Odds: $4.00) on top for me a in a decent little race for three year olds. This Chris Waller trained galloper was well backed to win last start at Canterbury yet spotted the lead a big start on the turn before winding up and grabbing victory in the last stride. Still looks on the up and will be better suited on the bigger track.
Big Danger: 2 Chandana (Best Odds: $2.25) ran a closing third to a potential star in Asinara before backing up seven days later and just missing out in a three way photo finish at Canterbury. Stablemate of the top tip and now gets the services of Hugh Bowman, so she should take some beating.
Roughie: 4 More Than Fabulous (Best Odds: $8.00) has been up for a long time, but continues to race quite well. He hasn’t raced in nearly a month since running an unlucky fourth over this track/distance, getting held up and checked a touch in the straight. Trafalgar ran second in the race and More Than Fabulous gets a weight pull.
Race Two (13:55) : TAB More Than Just Winning Maiden Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Celestial Choice (Best Odds: $12.00) is on debut here for John Sargent off the back of a couple of impressive trials, the latest coming on December 29 here behind Moonlight Trance. Drawn wide, but is trained on the track and looks to have talent.
Big Danger: 13 Euro Angel (Best Odds: $6.00) is a well bred first starter for Team Hawkes who has only had the one trial, resulting in a dominant win on her home track at Rosehill on January 19. She should take some beating.
Roughie: 7 Hit The Floor (Best Odds: $51.00) is another first starter, with this one trained by James Cummings. He has shown ability in a couple of trials, he is well bred and look for him to finish off late in what looks a strong maiden race.
Race Three (14:30) : Vili’s Pies Australia Day Cup 2400m:
Back Me: 1 Destiny’s Kiss (Best Odds: $2.10) just looks the winner. He ran in the Gosford Cup (2100m) and was just far too good for his rivals, aided by a lovely patient ride from Jason Collett. If the track remains to have give in it, his chances will only enhance. With normal luck he’ll be winning.
Big Danger: 2 Vilanova (Best Odds: $3.60) was given a gun front running steer from Tommy Berry to win the Tatts Club Cup (2400m) at this track just under a month back. He is a query on rain affected ground, so the weather forecast will be a big factor towards his winning claims, but he has the form on the board.
Roughie: 6 Tingeera (Best Odds: $101.00) ran on Moruya Cup Day last Monday and laboured under the big weight behind Hot Mustard, beaten four lengths. Dropping down to the minimum will suit him here, he won’t mind some give in the track, and a few of his rivals can be quite hard to trust. A place chance.
Race Four (15:05) : TAB Rewards Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Kangarilla Joy (Best Odds: $2.80) is a potential Stakes class filly who was tough in winning first up at Rosehill, beating home a couple of horses who have run well since. Takes on the older mares here, which isn’t easy, but she’s very good.
Big Danger: 9 Northern Fury (Best Odds: $5.00) had three wide cover last time out at Canberra and when presented by Brenton Avdulla, she let down powerfully and won with a bit of class and authority. She’s performed well in town before and should get every chance from the gate.
Roughie: 4 Thud (Best Odds: $4.20) was a slightly easy favourite last time out at Canterbury and that drift was spot when she could only manage fifth to Palazzo Pubblico, beaten two lengths. Hugh Bowman takes over now, she draws well, loves give in the track and she should just about be at peak fitness. Hard to beat.
Race Five (15:40) : All Too Hard @ Vinery Handicap (72) 2000m:
Back Me: 6 Game Pie (Best Odds: $2.80) was a strong winner when resuming at Hawkesbury before going to Canterbury where he finished just under two lengths away from Mana, and I think he just didn’t handle racing around the tight turns. Randwick 2000m third up looks a nice scenario, and he has a stack of upside.
Big Danger: 3 Now’s The Time (Best Odds: $11.00) returns to Sydney after a four run stint in Melbourne, which ended with a disappointing seventh to Prix D’or over the mile at Ladbrokes Park. Bit easier here, Hutchings rides and on his best, he’d go very close here.
Roughie: 7 Citations (Best Odds: $17.00) had been a bit disappointing in recent times, but Greg Hickman produced a pretty good training effort when this won at Canterbury over 1900m off a month freshen up. Harder here, but now that he has got the strong win on the board, he can go on with it.
Race Six (16:20) : Schweppes Handicap (71) 1100m:
Back Me: 9 Cannyescent (Best Odds: $2.80) looks a good bet here. This talented gelding for Gabbie Englebrecht had three runs during the Spring, resulting in a dominant debut win at Goulburn before two outstanding runs at Stakes level. Recent trial behind Pride Of Dubai was excellent and I’ll very shocked if he doesn’t just about take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 1 Ocean Grand (Best Odds: $9.00) is a very nice horse for Taree horseman Cliff Bashford who proved too good for his rivals in a Highway race over 1200m at Rosehill a tick over five weeks back. I think the stable have got Stakes races in mind with this horse, so if he was to head that way, he’d have to be ultra competitive here.
Roughie: 10 Fabry (Best Odds: $8.00) resumes here for Port Macquarie trainer Neil Godbolt. This gelding hasn’t raced since October when winning impressive over 1250m at Taree. Looked awfully sharp in a recent trial win there, and Thompson comes to town for this ride. Has to be respected enormously.
Race Seven (17:00) : Pro-Ride Handicap (67) 1400m:
Back me: 2 Majaska (Best Odds: $5.50) drops back in trip after racing over 1550m at Canterbury last time out where he ran a game fifth to Mana, beaten just over a length. Should get every chance from the good draw and looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 14 Stalwart (Best Odds: $5.00) was an alarming drifter in betting last week at Kembla Grange yet he loomed to win the race and for a few strides he looked the winner but the two horses inside him just kicked too good. Rises in grade, but this is an even field and stable rider is aboard.
Roughie: Interesting to see how 16 Multifacets (Best Odds: $10.00) resumes here. Chris Waller trained three year old colt who did all his racing in Victoria last prep, with the lone highlight being a two length romp on a soft6 track at Seymour. Trialled at Rosehill last week behind Cana and looked to go pretty good, so watch for market moves.
Race Eight (17:40) : Tab.com.au Handicap (83) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Richard The First (Best Odds: $9.00) produced a lovely turn of foot to win first up at Rosehill before running over this track/distance when fourth to the well backed Roaring To Win. Should be at peak fitness now and is well weighted after the claim for Koby Jennings.
Big Danger: 3 Lunar Rise (Best Odds: $5.00) had been pretty poor in his first two runs this time in, but he was much better in that Roaring To Win race, making up solid ground to run second. Now that he has found form, he can go on with it.
Roughie: 14 Shadow Lord (Best Odds: $13.00) can be hot and cold at times, but there was plenty to like about his last start effort at Canterbury when closing off strongly to run a close up third to Savoureux. Draws a lovely gate here and senior rider takes over.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Cannyescent
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 6 Kangarilla Joy
VALUE: Race Two Number 11 Celestial Choice
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 13, 14, 16, 17
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 14, 15, 16
$50 Investment= 2.55% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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