26/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

James Cummings has cleared the decks and giving 3 Diabelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) every chance to get a win on the board. He trialled/jumped out really well prior to debuting at Flemington Cup Day where he was very raw and new to the caper, so forgiving that down the track effort. Back around a bending track, J Mac on, he’ll do me.

15 Zoukerette (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Maher/Eustace filly that is on debut. She’s had a couple of trials to get ready for start one, placing each time. Latest trial came last week at Warwick Farm where she seemingly moved well under Collett and had something left in the tank in a good piece of work. Stable usually fire with their juveniles, so she commands respect.

4 Disneck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. He debuted in the Golden Gift where he was kept quite safe in betting and tried hard but just couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Barber. Did trial up enormous prior to that debut and the depth here, as a whole, isn’t strong. A win wouldn’t shock.

7 Loving Cilla (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Joseph Ible. She ran over this trip at Kembla last time where she got a mile out of her ground but rocketed late when second to Shameonus, who backed up last Saturday and won in town, so the form has been ticked off. If she’s within range on the turn, she can threaten.

1 Colour Sergeant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win a race and although he drops to Midway grade, he’s the one they clearly have to beat. He ran over this trip at Kembla last Saturday and stuck to the task very well in defeat when close up behind Shameonus. Form around him just reads so well for this. The query is a tricky gate and the weight, even though he gets the big jockey upgrade.

8 Jack Duggan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves a crack at Midway grade. Had to find a weak Class 1/Maiden to break a run of outs two back at Quirindi before going to Gosford where Tim Clark went on, he sat on speed and was very strong late in getting the job done. Harder here, but in form, lands on speed and is tough.

7 Miss Kirribilli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Tim Donnelly trained mare that appeals as a key winning chance. She resumed in a Highway at Randwick on Cup Day where she was given every chance by Schiller and was hailed as the winner for a few strides but was nabbed late by a brilliant finale from Salire. That has to read well for this.

13 Sussu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a mare that I think has good talent for Stephen Jones. She comes here with fresh legs, over a month between runs since a dominant win at Muswellbrook, defying a notable betting drift. Tick over trial at Scone was sharp to the eye and have to respect this stable when they come to town.

1 Zaru (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Joseph Burges trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Sep 10 in a 1400m Highway here where he had the suck run behind the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Xtra Approval. Interesting he resumes without a trial, but has residual fitness and is a proven Highway performer.

3 Worthily (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be hit and miss but his best is good enough to prove hard to beat here. He resumed a few weeks back at Flemington and I thought worked to the line with purpose in a good return behind French Emperor. Might want one more, but the return was too good to ignore.

10 Floating (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Narrow second to Kimura two back before going to the Midway at Newcastle where J Mac got on, he was put into a dream spot off the speed and he won like Winx the way he put them away with such ease. He’s better than Midway grade, and off last start, he commands respect.

8 Sindacato (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is little query at 1800m but he’s racing well and should be thereabouts. He has placed behind Redwood Shadow his past two, the latest coming at Newcastle a fortnight back where he kept finding the line nearer the inside to run third. Racing like 1800m suits and has home track advantage.

3 Monte Ditto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for David Pfieffer and loves racing here. He resumed four weeks back at Rosehill where he got a fair way back in the run and was never really a threat but liked the way he finished his race off behind Mars Mission. Tick over trial was sharp and he’ll be strong late.

7 Per Inaway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for Kris Lees that resumes. She hasn’t raced since July 9 at Randwick when far from disgraced behind a Stakes winner and a Group l performer in Cross Talk. Couple of strong trials to get ready foer return and although drawn awkwardly, she does get J Mac.

5 Authentic Jewel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board to command respect. Just one trial leaidng into her return a few weeks ago at Rosehill where she was near the speed and condition just blew out late behind Mars Mission. Better for the run under the belt, she has the quality to measure up.

I think you have to believe what you saw with 9 Knife’s Edge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) two weeks ago at Newcastle. Yes, he was $26 in the Highway, but SP aside, he absolutely spanked his rivals, winning by a space and showing change up speed. Has won up to 2200m so 2000m here is fine, he’s got upside, turn of foot…he’s the one.

7 Point Counterpoint (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Stirling Osland. He ran in The Little Dance at Randwick and I think you can make a small case to say he wins if he gets proper clear air in the straight instead of a close up fourth to Dream Runner. Like him up in trip and he will be stronger than most late in the piece.

15 Deel Street (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good little roughie here I feel. She ran over 1500m here last Wednesday in what looked a prep run for this and while she was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind a handy mare, Newley Wed. Has run well at the trip before and she’s a mare in form. Not penning her.

Going to have an each way speck on 11 Criminal Code (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is on the seven day back up for Chris Waller after racing over the mile last Saturday at Kembla where Zac Lloyd just wasn’t strong enough to ride him out properly and couldn’t finish the race off behind a good one, Nugget. First up run he was smashed in betting and I love Waller horses on the back up, especially up in trip.

17 Pale King (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth, but Team Hawkes has him flying. Tough winner over 1900m here two back before going to 2400m a week leader when leading throughout under a peach from Bowman and was too good. He’ll be strong late, he has a real liking for Rosehill and dry ground…why can’t he win?

10 Bonny Ezra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a better horse on wet ground but I think she has returned in good enough order to command respect here. Given no hope with the ride first up at Randwick but was very good late behind Diamil. She then went to Newcastle and the track was a bit too firm for her but stuck on well enough behind Rondino. Hard fit and up to 2000m, she has the set up to run an improved race.

12 Jojo Was A Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the map horse I feel and is worth an each way ticket. She resumed behind Coal Crusher at Newcastle when lumping the big weight, was wide no cover for the trip and dropped out to finish down the track. Reece Jones rides the horse better than anyone and I think he’ll land box seat this time behind Coal Crusher, and from there, he’ll run a much improved race.

10 Kiss Sum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks extremely hard to beat. He was very good late when resuming behind Vilana in the Silver Eagle. He then went to the Champions Mile at Flemington where he was clearly outclassed on paper and ran accordingly when finishing last behind Alligator Blood. Much better set up this time around, he’ll take beating against these.

6 Kubrick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Chris Waller trained six year old that resumes. He hasn’t raced since July 9 when producing an end of prep run in the Rockhampton Cup behind Master Jamie, which was the end of a pretty strong Autumn/Winter prep. He can sprint well fresh and has had a couple of trials to get ready, so watch the market.

7 Sky Command (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a jump/run type that is extremely well suited at the Rosehill 1100m set up. She ran on Cup Day at Randwick and was as brave as ever in defeat behind Clemenceau after doing work on speed. Last bit will be her test but I am sure she will give such a bold sight and look the winner for a long way.

If he’s within range on the turn, 8 Dragonstone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can take this out. His run last Saturday in The Warra was very good, finishing off with real purpose behind Athelric. The Rosehill 1100m isn’t ideal for his pattern, but if they go crazy in front, he’ll be the one launching late and finishing over the top.

5 Kallos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race. He down the straight at Flemington on Oaks Day where he was run off his legs early and never really picked up late in the piece, finishing several lengths off Joyful Fortune. Prior runs were more than sound and good enough to take this out.

8 Bend The Knee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves another chance. John O’Shea trained four year old that resumed a few weeks ago at Rosehill and given the race shape, the track pattern…it all suggested he had no hope and he ran accordingly behind Fox Fighter. Fitter and up to 1400m on a more genuine tempo, he has the quality to bounce back.

15 Short Shorts (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back into the winners list. Be very forgiving of her run at Newcastle last time. She bombed the start and wasn’t able to lead, doing too much work to get on speed and tired late when fourth to Ten Bells. If she jumps clean, she should lead and prove hard to run down.

7 Akasawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves a crack at Saturday metro level. He’s been too good for them in the country, so Paul Messara resumed him under the lights at Canterbury and defied a notable betting drift to launch late and win. Bullock is back on and fitter, up to 1400m, he’ll take beating.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Worthily

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Miss Kirribilli

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Criminal Code

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 10, 11, 12, 17

Leg Two: 4, 6, 10, 12

Leg Three: 2, 5, 7, 8

Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 10, 15

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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