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Nine races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (15:46) AMELIA PARK LAMB PLATE 1000m

Back Me

Leaning the way of 1 Gemma’s Son (Bet Now: $2.15) in the opener. David Harrison has produced some decent youngsters this season and this bloke is one of them. Debuted at this track/distance three weeks ago and while I doubt he beat a great deal it was the manner in which he put them away when asked by Harvey that impressed me. Think he can make it 2/2.

Danger

2 Chix Chatter (Bet Now: $5.50) is a David Harrison trained youngster that shared the spoils with La Farola on debut two weeks ago at Pinjarra. That pair controlled things from the front with this bloke being in front a stride before and a stride after the post, but on the peg, the judge couldn’t split them. Back to 1000m is a little knock but has early toe.

Long Shot

6 Brazen Arrow (Bet Now: $67.00) can be an improver at odds. Roy Rogers trains this gelding, who comes through the Pinjarra 2YO race from a fortnight ago where he was back near last in the run and couldn’t really get involved at all. Draws an inside gate, so hopefully that is used to advantage and Jarrad Noske remains on.

Race 2. (16:27) MRS MAC'S MAIDEN 1200m

Back Me

15 Worth A Risk (Bet Now: $16.00) is well named because I think she is worth the gamble. Had two runs during the Winter, catching the eye late on debut at Northam before going to Belmont and running a shocker on wet ground. Given a good break and did trial well last week at Lark Hill. Not the strongest maiden going around, so I’ll lean her way.

Danger

1 Pick Your Battles (Bet Now: $5.00) has a very tricky draw to overcome, but I think he’s flying and a maiden win is around the corner. Both runs this time in have come over 1100m at Bunbury and has finished off strongly each time, notably his last start from well back off the pace. If he can get luck in running, he’ll take some beating.

Long Shot

3 Trade Fair Express (Bet Now: $4.50) is second up here and though he may want a touch further, he’s a leading chance here. Resumed over 1200m at Bunbury when back off the speed and held up at times, but got clear late and worked home well. Should sit off a good speed and with luck from the tricky gate, he should be strong at the end.

Race 3. (17:07) TABTOUCH HANDICAP 1200m

Back Me

The safe option here looks to be the Neville Parnham trained 2 City Circle (Bet Now: $3.80), a handy mare who hasn’t raced since New Years Day when scoring a narrow but strong win at Pinjarra over 1200m. Like her with fresh legs and three runs back ran second to boom sprinter This’ll Testya, which clearly reads well for this.

Danger

3 Lacevinsky (Bet Now: $2.60) is finding it very hard to win, but Simon Miller has him going well. Just needs to break through for win number two. Ran at Pinjarra two weeks ago when wide no cover for the trip and sticking on really well in defeat when third to impressive winner Put A Spell On You. If he can get cover this time around, he’ll take some beating.

Long Shot

5 Neat Action (Bet Now: $13.00) took a little while to break the maiden tag for Neville Parnham but the win finally came over 1400m at Pinjarra a fortnight back in what looked a strong maiden, getting the A1 run in transit and finishing best. Clearly a harder race this time around, but gets an inside gate and should do no work in the run.

Race 4. (17:44) VALE MALCOLM CLEMENTS HCP 1000m

Back Me

Plenty of early speed here, think it potentially sets up for a backmarker, so with that in mind, I think something small each way is a bet for 7 Guesteen (Bet Now: $11.00), who ran over 1200m here last Saturday when on speed and stuck on pretty well in defeat though clearly no match for Money Matters. Back to a fast run 1000m and with a more conservative steer, she’s dangerous.

Danger

All you can do is win and that is what 1 Indian Pacific (Bet Now: $1.75) has done in his career to date, winning two from two. Both of those wins have come at this track/distance, the latest being three weeks ago when leading throughout and beating up a decent field. Harder here, and creeping up in the weights, but he’s likeable all the same with his racing style.

Long Shot

Good little test for the Jason Pateman trained 5 Dew West (Bet Now: $17.00) but she’s heading in the right direction. She’s won two of her past three, winning her last two starts. Latest run was over 1100m at Bunbury when leading throughout under a lovely ride from the front under Pike. Not sure she leads and beats these, so perhaps cover is best and she can poke through late.

Race 5. (18:20) AUSTRALIA DAY TROPHY 1500m

Back Me

Buttering up with the Steve Wolfe trained 6 Lordhelpmerun (Bet Now: $3.50). Was keen on him two weeks ago at Pinjarra in the Mandurah Cup and ran well without winning, closing off to run third to Dance Music. Extra 100m should suit him and from the gate, I’m hoping he can take advantage and sit closer in the run this time around.

Danger

1500m has to be a query with 4 Dance Music (Bet Now: $1.90), but then again, two weeks ago in the Mandurah Cup over 1400m, there were some, myself included, that doubted her at seven furlongs, but she passed with flying colours and was impressive in winning. Looks the leader and with a cheap furlong or two will take some beating.

Long Shot

5 Like A Butterfly (Bet Now: $4.80) is three weeks between runs and comes back to 1500m after racing over 1800m in the La Trice where she sat last off a good speed and just couldn’t get involved from the back when down the track behind Perfect Jewel. Like her back to 1500m, but the query being what upside does she have left in the tank.

Race 6. (18:55) AMELIA PARK LODGE HCP 1200m

Back Me

2 Free Trade (Bet Now: $2.20) is on top, but with reservations. I think he’s the best horse in the race, but it’s just a matter of how much is left in the tank because he had a proper gut buster first up in the Fitzpatrick Plate at Albany after sitting four wide no cover on speed for the trip. Did a mighty job to only go down late. Better draw, likes Ascot, hard to beat…just a question of how much that run took out of him.

Danger

4 Flower Of War (Bet Now: $4.00) is a ripper for Simon Miller. Has the right racing pattern of sustained speed and just tries her heart out, as we saw two weeks ago when winning at Pinjarra, leading throughout in strong fashion after getting a mid race breather. Tricky draw, but has the speed to come across and prove hard to run down.

Long Shot

8 Star Glitter (Bet Now: $35.00) is one I’d be including in exotics. Veteran for Neville Parnham who was a month between runs when racing over this track/distance three weeks ago and made up ground late in an eye catching effort even though he was never really a winning threat. Gets back again one assumes and will be spotting a start, but if they go silly in front, can pick them off and perhaps snare a first four spot.

Race 7. (19:30) D'ORSOGNA HANDICAP 1400m

Back Me

9 Put A Spell On You (Bet Now: $4.00) looks a really progressive filly for Fred Kersley and confident she can measure up here in what looks a strong 1MW race. Ran at Pinjarra two weeks ago when sitting off a good speed before Pike eased her wider and finished off with real purpose to win again. Harder here, but confident she goes close.

Danger

7 Serenity Bay (Bet Now: $2.35) is a Team Williams trained mare who scored a massive win first up at Pinjarra a fortnight back. Not sure how she won given how far back she was and she was under pressure, but Pike really got the best out of her and was too good. Does she want further than an extra 100m? Time will tell, but Pike remaining on is a big tick.

Long Shot

Third up from a break, 5 Abby Lane (Bet Now: $5.50) should be close to peak fitness. Was good in defeat first up here behind State Attorney before going to Pinjarra when just behind the speed and for mine, I thought he had his chance and for the most part was disappointing. Harvey on, third up, want to give him another chance.

Race 8. (20:10) IRON JACK HANDICAP 1800m

Back Me

I think you have to take the gamble that the Lindsey Smith stable has 3 Too Close The Sun (Bet Now: $3.10) ready to go first up. It’s certainly an interesting one because he is first up at 1800m off one 950m trial compared to last prep where he resumed over 1700m off the back of two trials, the second one being over 1450m. How forward he is will be known by the late market flucs but I’m banking on the stable knowing what they’re doing.

Danger

7 Burning Pride (Bet Now: $4.20) can be a bit hit and miss for Team Williams but when she’s right, she’s certainly talented and can win this. Ran over 1700m at Bunbury last time out when pulling hard off a moderate speed but Pike produced the goods on her again and she was far too good for them. Hopefully her racing manners are on point.

Long Shot

10 Jaspara (Bet Now: $21.00) is racing really well this time in for the Keith Mifflin team. Ran at Pinjarra two weeks ago over the mile when well back off the speed and was never really a winning threat, but did make up ground behind Arnie’s Boy. Gets back again from the gate you would assume but do like him up to 1800m off what should be a solid speed.

Race 9. (20:50) RTG 66+ Handicap 1600m

Back Me

All hail Pike in the get out via 12 Kelly’s Gem (Bet Now: $4.00). She looks the good thing on the program. Was well backed when resuming over 1400m two weeks go at Pinjarra and she should have won. Got badly held up in the straight when bolting before eventually getting clear and launching late to just miss out on picking up Lock Her In. Up to the mile and from the wide gate, gets clear air from the outset. Give it strength.

Danger

5 Over There (Bet Now: $7.50) is a beauty for Neville Parnham that doesn’t really know how to run a bad race. Three weeks between runs since scoring a strong win at this track/distance under a lovely ride from an in form Steve Parnham, sitting off the speed before angling three wide and finishing best. Gets a good run from the gate and is hard to beat.

Long Shot

3 Settler’s Creek (Bet Now: $20.00) is getting on in years for Colin Webster but is teasing to win one and I don’t think it’s far away. Ran here last Saturday when held up at times but got clear and worked home well late when fifth to Patristic. Where he gets to from the gate I do not know, but convinced he’s going well and a win wouldn’t totally surprise.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 12 Kelly’s Gem

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Lordhelpmerun

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 15 Worth A Risk

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8

Leg Two: 7, 9

Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 10

Leg Four: 12

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