Group l racing in Australia wraps up this Saturday with the Tatts Tiara (1350m) highlighting a strong eight race card at Doomben. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out 3.5 metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:07) : Stav, Abby & Matt With Osher’s Plate (Class 6) 1350m:
Back Me: Very ordinary race with the scratchings. Looks ripe for the taking for 13 Careless (Bet Now: $2.80). Mark Newnham trained gelding who ran three weeks back over 1500m at Rosehill where he did a bit of work from the gate and just weakened out of it late when finishing down the track behind Louie Sea Kay. Finds such a winnable race here, draws well, beautifully weighted…just wins.
Big Danger: 15 Cruising Speed (Bet Now: $3.60) was kept quite safe in the market when resuming at the Gold Coast a couple of Wednesdays back where she sat on speed and fought hard down the entire straight but was pipped late by Drumbeat’s Choice. Goes really well second and does have a liking for Doomben.
Long Shot: 8 Flying Light (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a near standout here against this lot. Had some very good form in Victoria when trained by the Hayes/Dabernig stable before being transferred to Barry Baldwin. Resumed over 1200m at the Gold Coast a couple pf Wednesdays back and I really liked the way he finished his race off here behind Drumbeat’s Choice. Up to the 1350m looks perfect and he should only have upside.
Race Two (12:42) : Winning Edge Stakes 1350m:
Back Me: 3 Mishani Wrangler (Bet Now: $8.50) is a really talented youngster for the in form Ben Currie yard who deserves a crack at some blacktype. He went to Rockhampton last time out where he defied a betting drift to sit on speed and absolutely trotting up under Josh Oliver. Not running much time, but to the eye, he looks very good.
Big Danger: 2 Curdled (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Segenhoe youngster for the Peter Robl yard who is still a maiden but finds a very winnable race here. He ran in a maiden at Warwick Farm last Monday where he tried really hard but just couldn’t quite peg back Wild Heart. Firmer surface helps and this race doesn’t carry much depth.
Long Shot: 4 Triple Arrow (Bet Now: $21.00) rises in depth/grade but should be included in multiples. He ran on his home track at the Gold Coast in a maiden over 1200m where he worked home strongly from the off the pace and lifted late under Griffin. He will eat up the 1350m here and does appear to have upside.
Race Three (13:20) : Furnaces @ Aquis Farm Crystal Slipper 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Sista Act (Bet Now: $5.00) is a jump/run filly for Liam Birchely who is somewhat limited in ability and what level she can reach, but she always puts herself into a good spot and gives her all, as she did last time out at the Sunny Coast when leading and just feeling the pinch late. Looks the leader here and should take some catching.
Big Danger: 2 Dream Kisses (Bet Now: $5.50) is a filly I get sucked into a lot, but given the lack of depth engaged here, she has to come into calculations. She ran in the Bill Carter here three weeks back and was okay without setting the world on fire behind Cellargirl. The key to this girl might be getting clear running and not being in between runners. Out wide and clear is when she was explosive early on in her career.
Long Shot: 7 Friends (Bet Now: $5.50) also comes through the Bill Carter and I thought her effort was really good. Got a mile back in a race that was suited to those near the rail/speed, but she closed off her race quite nicely behind Cellargirl. Draws much better here, so she can sit closer in the run, and is clearly value for mine.
Race Four (13:57) : Singapore Airlines Plate 1350m:
Back Me: 6 Eat My Trust (Bet Now: $7.00) is a really progressive galloper for the Matty Dunn yard who looks so well placed here. Two for two this time in, both at the Gold Coast and both times he has been outstanding from the back and bolting up. Looks to map perfectly here and gets Bowman steering. Keen.
Big Danger: 1 Ringo’s A Rockstar (Bet Now: $5.50) was one of many who just had no luck in the Daybreak Lover, getting badly held up behind tired runners when appearing to have plenty to offer, and that was the first time this prep he had market support, so I’ll respect that here in a field with less depth.
Long Shot: 13 Cushion Pink (Bet Now: $34.00) is a talented filly for the Heathcoate yard who resumed over 1200m at the Sunny Coast where she got a mile back in the run but I really liked the way she finished off her race when third to stablemate Pinch Mountain. Draws a lovely gate here and has a very good second up record.
Race Five (14:37) : Carlton Mid Tatts Cup 2200m:
Big Danger: 1 Rudy (Bet Now: $2.40) has done a really good job throughout the Winter Carnival, including last time out in the Brisbane Cup where he got back in a leaders race yet finished off with purpose when fifth to Chocante. Small field looks ideal, well weighted given his class and the little bit of give is perfect.
Big Danger: 3 Pemberley (Bet Now: $2.60) is the next best by process of elimination. He did a really good job in the Brisbane Cup I thought because the race shape/tempo was clearly against him but he fought on well in defeat when third to Chocante. Been a while since he has won, but he gets a great chance here.
Long Shot: 6 My Diamantine (Bet Now: $18.00) started longer odds in the Brisbane Cup after a flop in the Premiers Cup and she ran poorly again, but the tempo was against her when finishing down the track behind Chocante. She can bob up in a race like this. Not sure she can win, but one for exotics for sure.
Race Six (15:17) : GH Mumm Quality 1630m:
Back Me: 1 Religify (Bet Now: $2.80) should be winning this I think. He’s an outstanding miler for Chris Waller who is no star but he just gives his all. He dominated proceedings from the front in the Wayne Wilson two weeks back and he led all the way under Bowman. Creeping up in the weights now, but hard to ignore him.
Big Danger: 10 I’ll Fly Away (Bet Now: $19.00) could potentially beat Religify provided she is close enough on the turn. She got a bit too far back in the Wayne Wilson but I really liked the way she closed off when fourth. She has the more upside and as I said, if she is close enough, she’s certainly good enough.
Long Shot: 9 Sagaronne (Bet Now: $19.00) is the clear knockout chance here at really good odds. She ran in the Dane Ripper a fortnight back and just had no luck at all in a messy finish when finishing near last without really being extended behind Prompt Response. If the breaks go her way, she can certainly knock this field off.
Race Seven (15:57) : Sky Racing Tatts Tiara 1350m:
Back Me: With normal luck from the gate, 3 In Her Time (Bet Now: $2.80) just wins. Classy mare for the Ben Smith yard who went an enormous race in the Stradbroke. Did a stack of work from the wide gate yet fought so hard to hit the front and kick strongly but she was just overhauled late by Impending. Provided she hasn’t sooked up from that gutbuster and can overcome the draw, she wins.
Big Danger: 2 Danish Twist (Bet Now: $16.00) is a high quality mare for Kris Lees who is second up and ready to fire. Resumed three weeks back at Rosehill and on face value, it was just a run, but I thought she was very good. Those around here were hard fit, up and running, and though she didn’t make ground, she held her own nicely. Stable should always be respected in majors.
Long Shot: If this race was on a bigger track, I’d be almost declaring 9 Sold For Song (Bet Now: $21.00). Out of all these runners, I think she is going the best but the tight track and her racing pattern doesn’t help. Her Dane Ripper effort was super given she got back and wide on a day where it was hard to make ground but she did. If they overdo it in front, this is the mare to watch out for.
Race Eight (16:32) : UBET WJ Healy Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Deploy (Bet Now: $3.40) has been a revelation for Gerald Ryan since being gelded. He got his Stakes win on the board last time out at this track/distance in the Moreton Cup when sitting on speed and fighting on superbly. The three weeks between runs looks to suit him perfectly here and is the on top tip for me.
Big Danger: 4 Flippant (Bet Now: $7.50) is the big watch here. Quality mare that resumes for Team Snowden and this looks to be a target race for her fresh. Produced some really good efforts during the Autumn in high quality races. Her two trials leading in have been outstanding, both in sharp time, so she is wound up to win fresh.
Long Shot: 15 Mogador (Bet Now: $21.00) is the best horse in the race by a big margin, but he just never puts it all together. Worked home okay fresh at Rosehill behind Bonny O’Reilly before going to the Hinkler a fortnight where he was one of many that didn’t get much luck in the straight. This is D-Day for him but I’m keeping the faith.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Rudy
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Religify
VALUE: Race Two Number 3 Mishani Wrangler
Have A Tip? – Post Your Tip in the Comment Section Below
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3
Leg Two: 1, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14
Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 11, 15
$50 Investment= 35.71% of the dividend if successful
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