A start in the Caulfield Cup awaits the winner of the feature Victorian race this Saturday, the Mornington Cup (2400m), with the staying event highlighting the stand alone program at Mornington. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:00) : Window Warehouse Marathon Series Heat 2 3400m:
Back Me: 1 Celtic Prince (Best Odds: $5.00) on top for me but with no confidence. He ran down the track in the Adelaide Cup before running at Oakbank last Saturday where he ran a game third to impressive winner Dane Hussler, who would spank this field had she been in. Hard fit and will stay all day, so I’ll have him on top.
Big Danger: 4 Real Jazz (Best Odds: $4.20) won at bolters odds three back over 3000m at the Valley before running down the track behind Swacadelic. He then was given a 30 day freshen up before running over 3000m at Ladbrokes Park where he worked home alright behind impressive on speed winner Bayanova. Thin race and is trained on the track.
Roughie: 6 Lionpower (Best Odds: $21.00) come here after running in the Adrian Ledger Memorial (2400m) on Albury Cup Day where he plugged away alright behind Justiceforall, beaten ten lengths, but was solid in defeat. He has run well on the track before and looks overs at $21.
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Race Two (12:30) : No Fuss Event Hire Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Mefnooda (Best Odds: $5.50) resumes here for Mick Price after stringing together a couple of wins during the Spring before running a very good sixth to Solicit in the Summoned (1500m). Jump outs have been very encouraging and when you have Group l form around you, you’d have to be very competitive in a 78.
Big Danger: 2 Our Harmony (Best Odds: $4.60) should be forgiven for her failure in the Gold Bracelet (1400m) at Bendigo given she was racing near the inside, which was like quicksand by the end of the day. Unbeaten in two runs on her home track, and despite drawing wide, she is the clear class runner.
Roughie: 7 Shacarde (Best Odds: $5.50) comes here for the Hayes/Dabernig yard after running under the lights at Cranbourne 22 days ago when running a close up third to Prussian Vixen. She should be on speed from the good draw and is well weighted after the claim for Regan Bayliss.
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Race Three (13:00) : Martin Collins Fibretrack Mornington Sires’ 1500m:
Back Me: Very poor race and I want to steer well away from it. But for this purpose, I’ll put 6 Resort (Best Odds: $5.50) on top. This Godolphin ran at Pakenham last time out and closed off strongly against a slow tempo when fourth to Pop. He has a lot of upside and will love the step up to 1500m. In a very thin race, I am happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 8 Pop (Best Odds: $5.00) was given a beaut steer from Oliver to win at Pakenham, sitting just off the speed before peeling out and getting the job done impressively. Form prior looks very strong and being third up now, she should be ready fitness wise. The one to beat on form.
Roughie: 5 Jaws Of Steel (Best Odds: $6.50) was unwanted in betting when debuting at the Valley last Thursday night but he closed off nicely late to run fourth to Blue Diamond placegetter Zamzam. There is a bit to like about him based on that effort, and the step up to 1500m, as well as a likely firmer surface, should see this son of Sharkbite be very competitive here.
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Race Four (13:35) : Mitavite Challenge Final (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Eljetem (Best Odds: $4.00) is a talented gelding, but is becoming a tad costly to follow. He ran over this distance at Ladbrokes Park last time out and ran on alright without threatening when running a close up fourth to Native Land. On his home track now, which is always an advantage and his racing pattern will appear as though it should be ideal. .
Big Danger: 9 Honourable Tycoon (Best Odds: $3.30) is a consistent type for the Mark Kavanagh yard who ran second over this trip at Ladbrokes Park, beaten narrowly by Native Land. Gets a night weight pull on that mare here and will be in front of her in the run, so I am confident she can turn the tables from that race and be a contender here.
Roughie: 6 Kiss Me Ketut (Best Odds: $16.00) comes off a brave effort last time out in the Wangaratta Cup when running fourth to Entre Nous, beaten four lengths. She is a proven city performer and is really well weighted given she is a three time city winner. Looks the great overs in the race.
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Race Five (14:10) : Land Engineering Handicap (90) 2000m:
Back Me: 2 Velox (Best Odds: $3.80) resumed in the Golden Mile (1600m) at Bendigo and was one of only a handful to make significant ground from the back behind Nevis in running a closing fourth. Blinkers on the first time is noteworthy and Dylan Dunn and his claim looks well used here.
Big Danger: 10 Master Of Arts (Best Odds: $6.50) ran over this trip at Moonee Valley a tick over two weeks back and stuck on well when running fourth to the above average stayer Tucano, beaten just over a length. Looks to have some upside and Blinkers also go on for the first time for this horse.
Roughie: 1 Bondeiger (Best Odds: $16.00) could be the big improver here. He wasn’t suited at all first up in the Golden Mile (1600m) at Bendigo when down the track behind Nevis in a race where it was impossible to make up ground from the back. You have to go back to October when he last raced in a benchmark race and he bolted up. If he finds his best form, he spanks these, and his jump outs prior were very good.
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Race Six (14:50) : Cleanaway Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Just Got Lucky (Best Odds: $6.50) has been given a seven week freshen up since winning impressively at Moonee Valley, beating home a couple of above average types, including Danuki. I think with Daniel Bowman trained runners, you can back them with confidence and though this race looks harder, he is very good and has to be respected.
Big Danger: 1 Stoker (Best Odds: $5.50) drops in grade after running down the straight at Flemington when a closing seventh to Super Cash, who is a real up and comer, so I’ll respect that formline. He has really good form around him prior, and if he brings his best here, he’ll take some holding out, especially now he rises up to 1200m, which will suit.
Roughie: 5 Call Me Curtis (Best Odds: $7.00) is a handy galloper that drops a touch in depth after contesting the Bendigo Guineas (1400m) last time out where he ran along in front and stuck on well when fifth to Silent Sedition, beaten just over three lengths. Drawn wide, but has the speed to overcome that and is a definite live chance.
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Race Seven (15:30) : Bayside Auto Group Mornington Guineas 1500m:
Back Me: Gee if 1 Tarquin (Best Odds: $10.00) brings his best form, he’d just spank these. He has done bugger all in two runs this time in, but it has been in a couple of very strong races, starting off behind Spill The Beans before running down the track behind Press Statement in the Hobartville. Freshened up and trialled well recently in Sydney. Stable switch is always something I like and respect, and this is a very winnable race.
Big Roughie: 7 Gold Fields (Best Odds: $3.80) was Black Caviar-like when winning last time out at Ladbrokes Park, leading all the way to bolt in without the rider really extending the colt. That was over the mile and he beat home a Stakes performer, so the 1500m here is no issue, he is trained on the track and will look the winner for sure at some stage.
Roughie: 6 Unbreakable (Best Odds: $13.00) is a stablemate of Tarquin who comes here with enormous upside. He resumed against the older horses at Pakenham and was given a lovely ride from Pat Moloney, getting to the outside fence and letting down nicely to win. Will do no work from the wide gate and is a definite live chance.
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Race Eight (16:10) : Ladbrokes Hareeba Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I think 1 Smokin’ Joey (Best Odds: $34.00) looks great value in this race. He wasn’t far off them first up in the Oakleigh Plate behind Flamberge before running at Flemington over 1400m when back in a leader dominated race yet picked up late behind Tried And Tired. Back to 1200m and back in depth looks ideal and the pace does look strong, so look for him to charge late.
Big Danger: 2 Reldas (Best Odds: $5.00) was a fast finisher in the Oakleigh Plate before running in the Abell (1200m) at the Valley where he was given a lovely ride from Zahra to get the job done impressively and get a well deserved Stakes win. He is another that will get back and the track layout appears as though it will be right up the alley of this Robert Smerdon trained gallopers racing pattern.
Roughie: 7 Thermal Current (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed down the straight at Flemington a few weeks back and closed off strongly late behind Malaguerra, who franked the form with a stunning win in the Star Kingdom at Rosehill last Saturday. Down in the weighs again, lovely gate and Harry Coffey has had great success in recent times with the Weir stable.
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Race Nine (16:50) : Mornington BMW Cup 2400m:
Back Me: 4 Tom Melbourne (Best Odds: $2.30) should get himself a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning here. He was very impressive at Flemington before running in the Albury Cup (2000m) and he did everything possible to throw the race away, but he was just too good. He has enormous upside, and if he produces better racing manners, he’ll just about take care of them.
Big Danger: 2 Big Memory (Best Odds: $8.00) was very good last time out in the Golden Mile (1600m) at Bendigo where he tried hard but just couldn’t quite reel in the leader Nevis, but it was a day where leaders were advantaged later in the program. 1600m to 2400m is never easy, but he has class and last time he was at this sort of trip, he ran sixth to The United States.
Roughie: 14 Berisha (Best Odds: $21.00) was a short priced favourite last start in the Yarra Valley Cup (1950m) but just couldn’t pick his feet up on the heavy surface when a battling third to Falago. Yet to be tested beyond 2000m, but he gives the impression he will eat up the 2400m and being fourth up now, he should be ready fitness wise.
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Race Ten (17:30) : Building Brands Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: 13 Rock ‘N’ Gold (Best Odds: $6.00) looked sharp at the jump outs prior to running over 955m at the Valley where he got back and charged home late to run second to Very Choosy. Has to overcome the tricky gate, but is a definite live chance and is well weighted.
Big Danger: 12 Day After Tomorrow (Best Odds: $14.00) has been given a 38 day freshen up since running over this trip at Ladbrokes Park when fifth to I’m A Flying Star in what was a solid effort. She’ll do no work from the gate here and Yendall rides. Definite threat.
Roughie: 4 Squeaky Squirrel (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over 1100m at Bendigo a fortnight back where he was wide no cover for the trip yet stuck on very well when running a close up fourth to in form sprinter Society Man. He’ll be leading from the inside draw and will give plenty of cheek.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Tom Melbourne
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Eljetem
VALUE: Race Eight Number 1 Smokin' Joey
Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 15, 16
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 14
Leg Four: 4, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 4.16% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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