24/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, William Reid Stakes night

8 Cap De Joie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in the opener. Nick Ryan trained mare that resumed over 1400m at Sandown where she lumped 60.5kg and did a really good job in defeat behind a smart mare, Unusual Culture. Market said she may need the run late and that’s how it panned out. Has the run under the belt and fitter, getting to the mile, she’ll take beating.

1 Ceasar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was busting to win a race this prep but kept finding one or two better. That all changed over this track/distance last time, producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in, winning comfortably. More depth here and likely cops heat on speed, but he gets in well after the claim and now he has a win on the board, he can go on with it.

10 Soaring Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) isn’t the most reliable mare in terms of greeting the judge first, but she does come here off the back of a win and maps super from the inside gate. That win came under the lights at Pakenham last time where she was on speed throughout before being clicked up by Gaudray and away she went for a dominant win. Gets a big jockey upgrade, in form and has a good record at The Valley.

Happy to have a peanut each way on 12 Blixten (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Admittedly he is eligible for 58 grade but I think he is sneaky flying this guy. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since Feb 12 in a 58 at Bendigo where he got a fair way out of his ground but found the line with purpose when fourth to Frost Yourself. He will need luck from the gate but if the breaks go his way, he can take this out.

5 Our Heidi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and run well. Phillip Stokes trained mare that has done most of her racing in SA this prep but was at this track/distance last time out where she was off the speed but liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind Miss Middle Park. I do think she races best when she lands on speed and should that eventuate here, she’ll only run well.

The last time 3 It’s Kind Of Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won, Moses was parting the sea, but allowing for that, she is racing in pretty good form. Few weeks between runs since racing on wet ground at Terang, something she hates, but she ran a very credible race in defeat when a narrow second to Kasami. Back on top of the ground and drawn well, I think she commands some level of respect.

1 Brave Mead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) goes pretty good for the Maher/Eustace camp. Admittedly, he had the perfect three wide sit last time at Pakenham, but even allowing for that, he gave them an absolute spanking and despite doing a bit wrong, he was far too good, gapping them by over four lengths. Good upside/improvement to come and off that win, he looks extremely hard to beat.

8 Manhattan Baby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big price for a filly that I think can measure up. She has finished fourth in both career outings, the latest being on the Kenso over 1000m where I thought she should have gone close to winning. She had zero luck at a vital stage and was good when eventually clear. If she can overcome the wide gate, I think she’ll be around the mark.

6 Ana Jaahza (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a well bred filly for Team Hayes that comes here off the back of a debut win at Ballarat. She was well tried in betting and after sitting on speed, she showed good ticker in the straight to fend them off and win well. The scratchings has made this race a bit thin outside the favourite so she commands some level of respect if he is off his game.

Playing a straight bat with 1 Golden Crusader (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Price/Kent trained gelding that was a definite pass mark first up at this track/distance. He was near the speed throughout and condition just gave way late in the piece behind Caesar but battled on nicely for third. Fitter, up to a more suitable trip, and with the 3kg claim, he’ll take beating.

2 Teofilo Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the Blinkers back on and has the right racing pattern to give himself every chance. He ran at Pakenham two weeks ago where he attempted to lead throughout and he gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Song For Peace. That was his first run in a month so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

10 Hopkins (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. He has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell, the latest over the mile at Pakenham where he got back in the run and while he was never a threat, he made up solid headway behind Brooklyn Boss. Like that he gets to a suitable trip, Blinkers back on and D Oliver on, he appeals.

4 Deny Knowledge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a big price. Her run in the Peter Young was incredible really given the saddle slipped and how hard she went. She actually did well to stick on like she did where she should have finished 100m last. Beaten only 8.7L. Has had the extra time to get over that gut buster, think she’ll lead comfortably and only run well back to Mares grade.

8 Revolutionary Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) takes on the Mares but she’s found winning form and can certainly go on with it. She was backed with confidence last time out in The Kewney and looked in a bit of trouble for a few strides but managed to get clear air and class came to the fore late, letting down with purpose to win. Can she go on with it? Of course, and this isn’t an overly strong race.

3 Cliff’s Art (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks on track for a win. She is three weeks between runs since contesting the Emancipation where she was near the speed throughout and fought on quite bravely in defeat I thought when close up in defeat behind Thalassophile. Tick over trial last Friday was strong, has class on her side and she strikes what looks a winnable Mares race.

8 Foxicon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could need luck from the inside gate, but if she gets it, I think she will be far too good for these. Peter Moody has placed her to perfection, winning her past two at this track/distance where she has looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted. Carleen on…it will be heart in the mouth getting clear air, but if she does get out, good luck beating her.

2 Unflinching (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has gate one and brilliant early toe so he should have little trouble holding up and leading. He has been kept on ice since a strong on speed win at this track/distance back on Feb 17 where he was there to be run down but found under pressure to fend them off. Last bit will test, but he has the right racing pattern and will look the winner for a fair way.

3 Lady Solly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a short course specialist and loves The Valley so she commands respect. Game win from her over 955m at The Valley last time where she was on speed throughout and loved the ticker she showed. She was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. Lands on speed, she’ll run boldly.

I can’t believe 13 Babylon Berlin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is just under four times the price of Imperatriz. She is a great each way bet, purely from a price angle. They have tried her at 1400m and while she has been solid, she is much more effective at 1200m. Go back to the Railway three back, where Imperatriz beat her by 0.2L. There wasn’t much between them and this girl gets the perfect map from the gate.

11 Imperatriz (Bet Now: $5.00 SPECIAL ODDS) is a gun Kiwi mare for Mark Walker and has the runs on the board to command respect. She looked all over a winner in the Canterbury Stakes and was hailed as the winner, only to be nabbed late by Artorius. Think 1200m is ideal for her, a truly run 1200m as well, and back on a firmer deck, she will take a power of beating.

6 Jigsaw (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an absolute beauty for Cindy Alderson that is unbeaten since being gelded. Sustained speed came to the fore in the Australia Stakes. He led, copped heat and was entitled to knock up and get run down, but gee he was strong to the line in a dominant display, winning again. Is there petrol left in the tank? I’d say yes with the mini break, and with that in mind, he’s hard to beat.

1 Papillon Club (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but she is the class of the field given she ran a narrow second in The Kewney. She was brave, doing work in the run and despite that, she was hailed as the winner, only to be nabbed late by Revolutionary Miss. If she can overcome the barrier, and if there is petrol left in the tank, she’ll take beating.

6 Tass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice filly for the Maher/Eustace camp. Debuted with a solid third at Sandown prior to racing at this track/distance where she led throughout and spanked them. Them…wasn’t a great deal, but the manner in which she made a mess of them was impressive and this isn’t a strong Stakes race, so she is a leading contender.

5 Belmia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love a rise in trip. Both runs back from a spell have come over 1300m at Sandown, the latest being just over two weeks back where she took an absolute eternity to wind up but was solid to the line without threatening when third to Brazen Lady. Racing like she wants more ground, which she gets here, and if they can run on from the back, she’ll be dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Foxicon

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Brave Mead

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Deny Knowledge

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 11, 13

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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