A nine race card has been set down for Flemington this Saturday, highlighted by heats towards the big Finals Day next month. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:41) Gippsland Region Handicap 1400m
I think 4 Star Fall (Bet Now: $3.30) just has to tick the 1400m box to beat these I think. I don’t think he beat much last time out over 1200m at Ballarat but the manner in which he did it, leading all the way and smashing the clock sectionals wise relative to the day and doing it without being fully extended. Only query is the 1400m.
1 Scottish Rogue (Bet Now: $6.50) should be suited by the rise to the seven furlongs. He ran down the straight here over 1100m two weeks ago where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a solid enough kick but had answers to the finale of the heavily backed The August. Should get a good run on speed and I think he’ll get the trip no trouble.
8 Red Terra (Bet Now: $14.00) is a daughter of Stratum on debut for the Danny O’Brien team. This girl had one public trial in January at Geelong where he did little. Spelled and has had a couple of jump outs to prepare her for the debut and interesting that Olly rides. First up at 1400m is a task, but is bred to handle it.
Race 2. (12:16) The Murray Region Handicap (90) 1400m
1 Creativity (Bet Now: $2.20) looks one of the hardest to beat. The Ellerton/Zahra team have this girl absolutely flying at the moment, her latest run coming in the Moonlover race at the Valley where she was a good thing beaten, getting badly held up when appearing to be bolting. Has run well on her home track and I think 1400m will be okay.
3 Miles Of Krishan (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare who hasn’t won for a long time but her resumption at this track/distance was more than encouraging. Did a bit of work in the run from the wide draw yet stuck on really well behind Barthelona. Back to her own sex, better draw and a good second up record.
11 Alaskan Sun (Bet Now: $11.00) is on the quick back up for the Henry Dwyer after racing at Sandown last Wednesday where she was wide all the way but stuck on really well when third to Swiss Moments in a race won by a swooper. She’s hard to trust, but gate one and right down in the weights after the claim for Zac Spain.
Race 3. (12:51) Great Ocean Road Handicap 1100m
I’ll trust the eye with 7 Order Of Command (Bet Now: $4.50). Gee he has been sharp in two runs back from a break. Resumed with a dominant win at Geelong before heading to Ballarat on a wet track but that didn’t matter to the gelding. He absolutely bolted in and a made a mess of a field which looked to have depth, including Choisborder, who bolted up at Bendigo. More depth here, but have to like the way he is going.
Of the Weir pair, I clearly want to be with 3 Ducimus (Bet Now: $4.40). His effort a fortnight back here was enormous, charging home to just miss out on picking up Double Jeopardy. Third that day was Miss Leonidas, and she smashed them last Saturday, and that form is easy to tie in via the Ballarat race mentioned above. Definite threat.
5 I Am Someone (Bet Now: $17.00) is a definite threat for the Paul Preusker team. Strung together a couple of really sharp wins prior to racing over 1200m at the Valley a few weeks ago where he did a bit of work in the run from the wide gate and that early effort just told late when midfield behind Spirit Of Aquada. Back in trip, I think he’ll be hard to hold out.
Race 4. (13:26) 2018 Country Achiever Quinton Scott Handicap (78) 1400m
I’ll take a punt on 12 The Statesman (Bet Now: $11.00) a former UK galloper making his Australian debut for the Darren Weir team. Won his last three races before being sent to Australia, including a hurdle win by 16 lengths at Ludlow. The form out of those wins subsequent has been quite good and I reckon if he’s anywhere near right, he’s the one to beat.
2 Barthelona (Bet Now: $6.50) can be a bit tricky to follow and trust at times for Michael Moroney, but he has the form on the board after sitting on speed and fighting hard to win at this track/distance two weeks ago under Lachlan King. Seems to like the 1400m and maps okay with the claim again for King. Definite chance.
I couldn’t back 9 Painte (Bet Now: $8.50) to win but for exotics, I reckon he is a must. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he held a relatively good spot from the inside gate and didn’t get the greatest amount of luck but probably had his chance in the end when fifth to Barthelona. I’d include him in multiples, but he can win without me.
Race 5. (14:06) High Country Handicap 2520m
The best horse in the race is 1 High Church (Bet Now: $6.00) so I’m gravitating towards him. He ran over the 2040m at the Valley three weeks ago where he got a fair way back off the speed and was never really in the hunt as a winning chance but stuck on okay behind Lite’n In My Veins. Up to the 2520m looks ideal, he has upside and class.
I think you have to include him 3 Choysa (Bet Now: $5.00) The only way he is going to be competitive in these races is if they go to the front, roll and break their hearts. That’s what happened last time and Kate Walters pinched it. Creeping up in the weights now, but has carried 58kg to win recently so I don’t think that’s an issue.
4 Falago (Bet Now: $8.00) also comes through the Choysa race and I thought his effort was quite good. He, along with Lycurgus, had to drag the field up to Choysa and they were gassed around 150m out. Falago stuck on really well to hang on for third in a gutsy effort. He’s working to another win…is it here? Not sure.
Race 6. (14:46) Macedon & Goldfields Handicap 1600m
1 Gaulois…(Bet Now: $5.00) I can’t catch him. Thought he had no chance of beating Iconoclasm three weeks back at the Valley but that horse pulled up lame and despite Gaulois sitting wide no cover, he surged to the front and kept finding to get the job done. I think talent wise, he has these covered…just want to see him do it again before jumping on.
3 Groundbreak (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Team Hawkes trained three year old who comes back in trip and is in pretty good form at the moment. He ran over the mile at Flemington a few weeks back where he got a mile back in the run but worked home quite well with purpose late in the piece behind Iconoclasm. Break between runs is the issue, but I think he has the right form.
12 Flogga (Bet Now: $13.00) is a watch. Frankie Stockdale trains this gelding, who made a long sustained run when debuting over 1400m at Ballarat and he had every right to drop out late but he kept finding under Callow and on the line he was pretty good. Form out of it looks suspect but I think he deserves a look.
Race 7. (15:26) Brian Beattie Handicap 1400m
I’m going to take a chance on 6 Master Reset (Bet Now: $20.00) here for Matt Laurie. He can be hit and miss at times but one thing we do know is that he is a bomb when produced fresh, winning two and placing in another three from seven fresh runs. Cranbourne trial was solid enough but he has had two jump outs as well, and they were much better, so he’s been given a really good grounding to run well first up.
2 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $9.00) is an absolute beauty for the Patrick Payne team. He is just a winner and loves to dig in when needed to. That was the case four weeks back first up on the Parks track. He was there to be beaten but like he has done so often, he fought really hard when required to get the win. Has run well here and can pull out a decent second up performance.
12 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $16.00) is the Adelaide visitor for John Macmillan who shared the spoils with So You Too on the Parks track last time out but he should have won outright. Just no luck early in the straight when he was building really good momentum. Excellent record at 1400m and I think he can measure up.
Race 8. (16:06) David Bourke Provincial Plate (90) 1600m
Bit of a nothing race to be fair. Throw at the stumps with 10 Hazard Ahead (Bet Now: $21.00) for Craig Blackshaw. Tough on speed win two back at Cranbourne before really struggling on a bog at that track behind Hardington. Been given five weeks to get over that and with Penske out, I reckon the lead is there to be had if Dunn wants it. He’ll give a sight at $20+.
9 Silentz (Bet Now: $2.15) was spurred on by many to win the Swan Hill Cup last time out given everyone wanted Harry Coffey to win his hometown Cup. It didn’t go to plan though as the horse really struggled on the bottomless track and couldn’t pick his feet up behind Victory Downs. On firmer ground, he can bounce back.
5 Bling Dynasty (Bet Now: $17.00) is a talented galloper resuming for Paul Preusker. He hasn’t raced since just before Christmas when finishing down the track over the 2040m at the Valley. He can pull out a decent run first up and I reckon first up at the mile tells me there is intent to run well. Definite yard/market watch.
Race 9. (16:41) Grampians Region Handicap 1100m
I think if 15 You’ve Been Had (Bet Now: $4.00) handles the straight track course, he’ll take some beating. He was set an impossible task three weeks ago at the Valley when back near last in a 1000m race. He did an amazing job to get as close as he did to Balancing Act. He’s got the racing action of a very good horse. He gets his chance here to showcase it.
I think 7 Man From Uncle (Bet Now: $4.50) is the most interesting runner. Formerly with Team Cummings but is now with Darren Weir and as we know, he’s one of the best in improving tried horses. He hasn’t raced since being outclassed in the Darley Classic behind Redzel but the run prior behind Rich Charm was very good. Haven’t seen a jump out, but his fresh record is very good and he has class.
12 Divine Quality (Bet Now: $8.50) a definite for me. Robbie Griffiths has this mare going really well at the moment but she just can’t quite crack it for a win. Thought that would come over 1200m at the Valley three weeks back but she had to settle for second to the well specked Moonlover. Back to 1100m might be her go and she should take some beating.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Creativity
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Star Fall
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Master Reset
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 10, 12
Leg Two: 2, 6, 12, 13
Leg Three: 2, 5, 9, 10
Leg Four: 3, 7, 11, 12, 15
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
$100 Betting Strategy:
$20 Win Star Fall R1
$40 Win Creativity R2
$20 E/W Master Reset R7
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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