For the next three weeks, the racing world will have its eyes focused on Rosehill for the BMW Carnival, with an absolute belter of a program lined up, headed up by the $500,000 Group l Ranvet Stakes (2000m), but the action doesn’t stop there. The fillies and mares will do battle in the $600,000 Group l Coolmore Classic (1500m), with the intriguing runner being the Japanese mare Hana’s Goal. Golden Slipper favourtism goes on the line with the two juvenile races set to be absolute crackers, the $300,000 Group ll Reisling Stakes (1200m) and the $300,000 Group ll Todman Stakes (1200m).
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Race One (12:20) : Maurice McCarten Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Rain rain go away, come again another day. If that happens, then That’s A Good Idea (Best Odds: $3.30) will be winning and winning well. Did the donkey work to take the field up to the leader first up and tired late, then copped pressure at Warwick Farm and was nailed in the last stride. 1100m at Rosehill suits leaders, which is what he’ll be here and being third up, he should be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Big Danger: Flamberge (Best Odds: $5.50) has been excellent in two runs this prep, both at Group l level and both times finishing fifth to Lankan Rupee, rated by many as the best sprinter at the moment in Australia. Tumbles in class and has the gun draw.
Roughie: Interested to see how Senta De Noche (Best Odds: $8.00) goes here. Quality gelding who has been plagued by injury hence four starts for four wins despite being six years old. Has trialled brilliantly leading up this, but strikes a hot field. Watch for betting moves.
Race Two (12:55) : APN Outdoor Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Got to stick solid with Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $11.00) here. He has been bursting to win a race this prep, but either finds bad luck or a couple better on the day. He’ll settle back, but the pace should be hot for him to run on and charge late.
Big Danger: Barbed (Best Odds: $5.00) was used up early when resuming at Warwick Farm, and that was probably not the right thing to do in hindsight. He is a much better horse than that, and despite drawing wide here, he has quality and a touch of class.
Roughie: Desert Wizard (Best Odds: $4.60) is the interesting runner. First up here for Nigel Blackiston after a reasonable Spring, winning at Cranbourne first up before running seventh to Fiorente in the Dato Tan Chin Nam then another seventh behind Bass Strait at Caulfield. Won’t mind the sting out of the track.
Race Three (13:30) : Todman Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: If the track is dead5 or better, than Unencumbered (Best Odds: $3.70) simply wins this and wins with ease I think given how well he trialled last week at Warwick Farm. Forget he went around in the Silver Slipper given it was a wet track, which isn’t his go.
Big Danger: Risen From Doubt (Best Odds: $4.60) is bred to be a swimmer, but he didn’t handle it at all in the Silver Slipper, dipping and diving all the way in the run. His debut win was outstanding and his sole aim has been the Slipper. Big watch on him to improve.
Roughie: Jabali (Best Odds: $3.80) was given a beaut ride by Oliver in the Blue Diamond, but simply couldn’t hold off Earthquake. I don’t think he’ll win the Slipper, but is sure to be competitive here.
Race Four (14:10) : Reisling Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: This race nearly determines who will start favourite in the Golden Slipper. Got to stick with the proven form, and that lies with Earthquake (Best Odds: $1.70), who was simply breathtaking in her Blue Diamond spank job, winning like a top class filly. Peter Snowden did say this horse could be as good as Sepoy…remember, Sepoy did get beat this very meeting before bolting in the Slipper. I think this filly will win here and then win the Slipper.
Big Danger: Mossfun (Best Odds: $4.80) is a quality filly herself who won with ridiculous ease in the Silver Slipper a few weeks back. My only concern is that she can only show that brilliance on rain affected ground. Still think she is the danger, but I’d rather watch her. If the rain comes though, look out.
Roughie: Interested to see how Clifton Red (Best Odds: $34.00) goes. I thought she was a most impressive debut winner down the Flemington straight, beating home Ygritte, who ran second to Mossfun in the Widden, so she has ability and the stable have an opinion of her.
Race Five (14:45) : Sky High Stakes 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Let’s Make A Deal (Best Odds: $7.50). Forget she went around in the Peter Young first up because I don’t think Caulfield is her track. Looked to travel very sweetly next time out in the Australian Cup and loomed as a threat on the turn before condition gave out late. She is a very good mare who will appreciate the drop back in class and gets in so well at the weights.
Big Danger: Prince Cheri (Best Odds: $3.75) came back to racing in good order I thought first up in the Chipping Norton behind Boban. WFA first up isn’t his go, he is a handicap horse who looks well placed back in this company. Unbeaten second up also.
Roughie: Entirely Platinum (Best Odds: $6.50) has won two races from as many runs after a 12 month break from the game. Toughed it out very strongly to get the job done last time out, so I think the step up to 1900m and coming to his home track should suit ideally, and is on the minimum.
Race Six (15:20) : Ajax Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Really good edition of this race. Going for Ecuador (Best Odds: $3.60) to continue his white hot. Both Tommy Berry and Gai Waterhouse have continually stated that this is their Doncaster horse, and it’s hard to argue with that given how well he is racing. His last win might not have looked pretty, but the stablemate walked in front and he didn’t look 100% in the ground. He is a star, a rising star anyway, and I’ll be in his corner here.
Big Danger: Had Ecuador not been in this race, I’d be all over Messene (Best Odds: $3.10) here. I’ll be backing Messene to win the Doncaster, because a tough Randwick mile with no weight looks perfect for him. First up win in the National Sprint was excellent given he came from the widest barrier and sat on the speed, which isn’t his go. He’ll go very close here.
Roughie: Monton (Best Odds: $8.50) ran his usual very honest race last time out in the Chipping Norton, getting held up a touch early in the straight before getting out and whacking away very nicely. Getting beat only three lengths by Boban is good enough form to be a force here.
Race Seven (16:00) : Coolmore Classic 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Catkins (Best Odds: $5.00) will be the next Red Tracer once the great mare finishes her career. Brilliant wins in both runs this time in, and showed an electric turn of foot in the Wiggle when asked by Bowman. Proven weight carrier and I am confident she can get the job done.
Big Danger: Dear Demi (Best Odds: $13.00) ran an absolute cracker in the Wiggle, looking the winner at huge odds on the turn in the Wiggle, but couldn’t sprint with Catkins and condition giving out late. She’ll love the extra distance and a bigger track, and doesn’t mind the sting out, plus she hasn’t missed a place in four runs second up.
Roughie: Real Surreal (Best Odds: $16.00) has been excellent in two runs under the care of Team Hawkes. Close up fourth in the Light Fingers was followed up by a narrow second to Thump in the Surround. She is on track for her Autumn targets, and with the pull in the weights, she must rate a chance.
Race Eight (16:40) : Ranvet Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Could very well be the race of the Sydney Carnival with the clash of the two champs in Fiorente (Best Odds: $2.75) and It’s A Dundeel. Got to stick with Fiorente, who has simply been world class at his past three runs and wins, with the Melbourne Cup followed by the Peter Young then a courageous yet dominant display in the Australian Cup. Has the fitness edge, and is better suited at 2000m at this stage of the carnival compared to the kiwi.
Big Danger: On class, It’s A Dundeel (Best Odds: $3.00) has to go in as a threat. Beaten odds on pop in the Chipping Norton, but there were a couple of excuses. The horrible track, he was first up at a mile and gave Boban the perfect trail. Personally, I have concerns about him running 2000m against the best of the best, but like I said, he has class and that will carry him a long way.
Roughie: Her winning times haven’t been flash, but gee the kiwi mare Silent Achiever (Best Odds: $16.00) has been devastating in two runs this time in, both at Ellerslie. Lumped 62kg to win first up over 1500m, then recorded a very soft and brilliant display in the NZ Stakes. The blinkers have really switched her on, and she’d probably win this had it not been for the top two.
Race Nine (17:20) : Pharlap Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: D-Day right now for Guelph (Best Odds: $3.10). Two fairly ordinary runs this time in against her own age and sex. Yes, there were probably excuses at Randwick, but she had every chance at Warwick Farm and was comfortably held. She is too good of a filly to dismiss…yet. I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt.
Big Danger: The interesting runner here for me is High Tec (Best Odds: $10.00), a stablemate of El Roca. Toyed with them two back at Otaki back in New Zealand, then did much the same at his Australian debut at Wyong. Not sure what his target is over here, but he is very promising and I know the stable have knocked backed some serious offers for this horse.
Roughie: Woodbine (Best Odds: $5.50) was well liked by some experts last week in the Randwick Guineas, but was a late scratching on raceday. His run in the Hobartville was excellent, and if the rain stays away, he’ll certainly be in the finish.
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Best Bet: Race One Number 3 That’s A Good Idea (Best Odds: $3.30)
Next Best: Race Eight Number 1 Fiorente (Best Odds: $2.75)
Best Roughie: Race Two Number 5 Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $11.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 8, 9
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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