Plenty of scratchings mean the field sizes are down for todayâ€™s meeting at Warwick Farm. That also means that the favourites will be very short. However I think there is value around some of the favourites that will be going around this afternoon.
Not much confidence in this race as they are a bunch of one pacers that wonâ€™t win many races. The horse I like at a price is Diamond Jim. 11 starts for two placings doesnâ€™t read well but in the past he has raced alongside the very handy Darley horse Yulalona, Ilovethiscity, Erewhon and the list goes on. On the minimum here and the small field will really help. Looks a great bet at good odds.
A special here in Dal Dal. This girl has had four for a win, two placings and a fourth. Was a good winner on debut at Canterbury before bumping into Agister at Rosehill, then beaten by Slow The Glow, who is a group class filly before being beaten at Randwick. First up today, but her latest trial was very good and she looks primed to win first up.
In all honesty, Beltane looks a moral here but the price will be too short so Iâ€™m thinking perhaps look for a roughie and I have found Honourable Aussie. Used to be with Wayne Wilkes at Port Macquarie where the horse had 11 starts for two wins and two placings before being transferred to the care of John Thompson. This horse was totally out of form at the end of his last preparation but his recent barrier trial was solid and something has to finish second.
Another small field and it looks to be a two horse race between Krui Crusader and I Rule The World and Iâ€™m going with latter. It was a good run first up when beaten by Krui Crusader but this time I Rule The World has the 1.5kg weight pull in his favour which may prove to be the winning factor. Drawn gate one, Bowman will have no excuses if the horse gets beat.
Another of these suspect staying races and the dead set stayer in this race is Grizz. Showed us his career will go on for a while when he went to Melbourne and peformed well over the jumps last winter before being sent back to Chris Waller. His run first up was good over the 1550m at Canterbury. He might need this run in terms of fitness but I canâ€™t make a strong case for any of the others here.
Thumbtacks was the subject of a strong on-course plunge last start on the Kensington circuit but didnâ€™t have the race run to suit when the leaders crawled in front and sprinted so for Thumbtacks to finish within a length of the winner shows how well he is going. Should drift back from the wide barrier here and Iâ€™ll be praying that someone injects some speed in the race
I think the Nick Olive trained Merci Grand can snare the last race. She has always shown talent and under the care of Olive, she is fulfilling her potential. Strong win last start at Canberra when carrying 59kg over the 1400m which isnâ€™t easy so she deserves her chance in town. The claim for young Blake Spriggs means the mare will carry 56kg. She looks the value runner in the race.
Written by Adam Page
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