With the Randwick track being saved for Villiers Stakes Day, Saturday racing at ‘headquarters’ will be on the Kensington track, which has copped some serious criticism in recent times given how inconsistent it is. It will be very interesting to see how it plays this weekend.
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Race One (1:15pm) : Surf Meets The Turf Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Italy (Best Odds: $2.60) was well fancied on debut at Randwick and just found the experienced Mine Two a touch too sharp for her, but she was credible in running second. She has the race day experience now and the stable is absolutely flying with their babies. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Denpurr (Best Odds: $4.80) is on debut for Team Snowden here after a lovely barrier trial here at the end of last month, running third. She is by Denman and the Snowdens would know the ins and outs when it comes to the former star, and the filly has been crunched in betting.
Roughie: Billy Big Brown (Best Odds: $9.00) is on debut for Bjorn Baker. He trialled on Tuesday at Hawkesbury and although the margin was only a neck, the way he attacked the line when asked was the bit I liked, and the time. He ran nearly a half second quicker than Catseye Surprise, a multiple city winner. Good measuring stick for mine, and would be higher up in the tips had he drawn a better gate.
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Race Two (1:50pm) : So You Think Yearlings Plate 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Chris Waller will win the race. It’s just a matter of which one…I think it will be Saigon Tea (Best Odds: $2.70). Her three runs back from a break have been outstanding. First up she ran an eye catching eighth to Neena Rock in the Angst, then was narrowly beaten by Grand Marshal, subsequent Cup Day winner, then Saigon Tea herself went to Cup Day also and ran a cracker when second to You Rock. She was brilliant there given she was near last in a slowly run race, so the step up to 2400m and back to Sydney should see her be extremely hard to beat.
Big Danger: Terai (Best Odds: $3.80) is back in Sydney after two runs in Melbourne. She had no luck at the Valley behind Spinderbella, then went to the Momentum Energy Stakes on Stakes Day of Cup Week and was really good late when eighth to Suavito, beaten less than four lengths. That form should see her prove hard to hold out here.
Roughie: Surpass (Best Odds: $26.00) also comes back to Sydney after a failed campaign in Melbourne. He was okay when fourth in the Harry White Classic, then failed in both the Moe and Bendigo Cups. He comes back to his right level again, and if he bounced back to his best form, he’d have winning claims.
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Race Three (2:25pm) : Sepoy’s At Next Years Sales Handicap (75) 1550m: Form Guide
Back Me: I am going to be forgiving of Made To Order (Best Odds: $6.00) and her last start failure at Hawkesbury as an odds on pop. She was sitting off a very slow speed and she simply doesn’t have the necessary turn of foot to produce a blistering last 600m. There does appear to be more speed here though, so that will help her claims and the slight step up in distance will be to her advantage.
Big Danger: Crooked Stick (Best Odds: $4.40) is absolutely flying for Pat Webster, winning her past two impressively, both over 1400m at Warwick Farm. Last start she beat three rivals, but showed a really good turn of foot to score a good win given she was last. Steps up to Saturday company again, which is the question mark, but she is in a real purple patch, so there is no reason why she can’t go on with it again.
Roughie: Sensualism (Best Odds: $9.50) was scratched from Canterbury on Wednesday in preference for here. She resumed from a freshen up with a disappointing sixth behind Paris Match at Randwick, but I think, perhaps, she was ridden too close to the tempo. I think ridden cold out the back and saved for one run, she can show improvement.
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Race Four (3:05pm) : Inglis Yearling Sale Handicap (72) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen on Good Project (Best Odds: $4.60) here. His run last start at Randwick was unbelievable. He was caught wide with no cover outside a speed which ran the first 800m in 46 and change, which is flying for off season three year olds. He had the audacity to kick to the lead in the straight, only to be grabbed late by a real good one in Hauraki. Give him normal luck here, and provided he has pulled up well from that run, he should just about take care of this lot.
Big Danger: Federal (Best Odds: $3.50) was a dominant all the way winner at Wyong two back, then stepped straight up to city level and ran at Warwick Farm where he was far from disgraced when a narrow second to Richard The First. His most impressive performance was when he was on the speed, and given there isn’t much here, expect to roll forward and give plenty of cheek.
Roughie: Rhodin Drive (Best Odds: $11.00) had two runs during the Autumn, with a debut win at Kembla Grange before a third to Meirusault at Hawkesbury. He resumed at Rosehill and wasn’t suited by the slow tempo when a closing third to Mohave, although his final sectionals were strong. Up to 1400m does suit, he is fitter and has upside.
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Race Five (3:45pm) : Coolmore Handicap (80) 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value here in the shape of Off The Rails (Best Odds: $7.00). He is known to be at his best when racing over the mile and further, but he showed a brilliant final burst to win over 1200m at Randwick on Melbourne Cup Day, beating home Dublin Lass, who came out and bolted in on Friday night at Canterbury. He has placed twice from as many second ups, should only improve with distance increase and along with added fitness, he ticks just about every box.
Big Danger: Underestimation (Best Odds: $3.50) was hammered in betting when resuming at Rosehill on October 25, and looked the winner 300m out, but he couldn’t get past the flying Road To Summer and was a well held second. There was on pace bias that afternoon, and he was first up, so I thought he was very good under the circumstances. He should take some beating here.
Roughie: Turbulent Jet (Best Odds: $6.00) was well supported in early markets last week at Rosehill but was scratched on race morning. He resumed over 1200m at Randwick and was good late when fourth to Boss Lane, beaten just under three lengths. He is unbeaten second up and hopefully won’t be too far away from the good draw.
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Race Six (4:25pm) : Swim Between The Flags Handicap (80) 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Taree Cup winner Slivovitz (Best Odds: $19.00) had a little freshen after being outclassed in the Newcastle Cup behind Disclaimer. He trialled and returned to racing with a really nice fourth Frespanol at Rosehill over 1500m, warming up late and hitting the line with purpose. Up to 1800m looks ideal, drawn well and the stable is in cracking form.
Big Danger: Paris Match (Best Odds: $3.50) has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. She charged home to run second to Valcot under the lights at Canterbury before going to the Randwick 1400m and again unwinding hard from the back, but this time she did enough to win in what was an impressive display. Last time in she raced behind the likes of Arabian Gold, Lorna May, Mahara and Tinto…that reads so well for an off-season benchmark 80.
Roughie: All you can do is win and that is what Resurrect (Best Odds: $7.00) has done at his past couple, charging home from the back to win on both occasions, including last Friday night at Canterbury when nailing Ultimate Gaze right on the line. He came very wide on the turn there and carried topweight while the runner up pinched an inside run and had a 4.5kg weight pull on the eventual winner. Rises in class here, but is in winning form and will be strong at the end of the race.
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Race Seven (5:05pm) : Choose Segenhoe Handicap (75) 1550m: Form Guide
Back Me: Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $6.50) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets his chance here. First up he had absolutely no luck when fourth to Valcot (Paris Match ran second), then went to Randwick and was just pipped late by Enormous Honour, who had the drag up on his back and had the last short. He gets a weight pull on Enormous Honour now and is drawn the right part of the track out wide compared to his conqueror, who may get cluttered away on the rail. Confident Centre Pivit can win here.
Big Danger: Drago (Best Odds: $8.50) was a touch ordinary first up at Randwick behind Boss Lane, then dropped big time in class and was well supported, but got no room at all in the straight and should have bolted in when second to So Nostalgic. It’s been a long time since he has won, but it’s been a long time since he has raced at this weak level. If ever he is going to win, it’ll be here…too frustrating to back for mine, but I won’t be surprised if he bolted in.
Big Danger: God’s In Him (Best Odds: $5.50) had an impressive jump out at Flemington prior to winning his maiden at Seymour. He then came to Randwick a couple of weeks back and ran in the race Enormous Honour won. God’s In Him got badly held up about 300m from home when about to launch and lost all momentum. He eventually got clear and really hit the line with purpose. Drawn to get a sweet trip and the step up to 1550m looks perfect.
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Race Eight (5:40pm) : Hunter Valley Horse Capital Handicap (80) 1150m: Form Guide
Back Me: Mohave (Best Odds: $3.20) takes on the older horses, but he is absolutely flying at present. Two back he ran fifth to Kuro, who then went on to place in a Group l. Mohave then went to Rosehill in a weak-ish sort of race and put them away impressively. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the class rise. Do I want to take $2.70? No, but I still think he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: Encostanati (Best Odds: $5.50) ran at Rosehill on Derby Day, and I thought he was very good in running third to Shiraz. He was tardy away from the gates and was forced to sit near the back of the field before coming very wide and really attacking the line with purpose. He will be much fitter for that outing, and Shiraz isn’t running here.
Roughie: Former Qfighter (Best Odds: $11.00) had his first run for Gerald Ryan at Randwick a fortnight back and after having a nice run off the speed, he looked set to launch at the top of the straight, but just plugged away when let go to run third a real up and comer in Ball Of Muscle. Perhaps fitness got him there because he didn’t have a trial in preparation. Drops a fair bit in grade now, will be another suited by a hot speed, and he can certainly unleash a blistering final split when given the right run and a good tempo.
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BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Good Project
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Saigon Tea
VALUE: Race Five Number 7 Off The Rails
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 7
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13
Leg Four: 4, 9, 10, 11, 14
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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