21/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Five Diamond Prelude day

The Randwick Carnival continues this Saturday, headlined by the Five Diamonds Prelude (1500m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Five Diamond Prelude 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Five Diamond Prelude

8 The Three Hundred (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a GaiBott filly on debut. She is 2/2 from the trials, both at Warwick Farm. Latest saw her lead throughout under Hippo and although ridden out, she responded and was quite strong to the line in running solid overall time. Stable is flying with their juveniles, she likely leads this field up and I dare say will take running down.

2 Agenda Setter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a well bred colt on debut for Team Hawkes. He is out of Group l winning mare Secret Agenda so she is bred to be a good one and his trials indicate he is flying for start one. He’s had two trials and each time he has really caught my eye. Should land near the front and prove hard to run down.

3 Blue Illusion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. He was favourite when debuting down the straight at Flemington but he failed to fire a shot and was a beaten horse a long way out, pulling up post race with a poor recovery. Had jumped out super prior to that so I think you have to give him another look.

3 Lord Desanimaux (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is steadily getting towards peak fitness and I do think getting to 1800m is a big tick for this Terry Robinson runner, who is a proven Highway performer. He ran two weeks ago in the Highway here over 1500m. He got a fair way out of his ground and was never a threat but did make up headway and was pretty good late behind Chase My Crown. Might want one more, but off last run, he can win this for sure.

2 Amarantz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here. Danielle Seib trained mare that ran in the Highway from a fortnight back where she looked the winner for a few strides but once Chase My Crown found clear air late, she dashed and was much too good for this girl, but she stuck on well enough for a mare wanting more ground, which she gets here, and has more upside than most.

The break between runs I find interesting with 6 Bellman (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He has been kept on ice for Matty Dale, having not raced since Sep 29 at Moruya when doing work to land on speed and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off behind The Carpet Bagger. 1800m I find interesting but I think with a more patient steer, he should be okay and can win without shocking.

5 Peace Officer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Clarry Conners and rates highly here. He ran a fortnight back in the Midway here where he got a mile back from the wide gate and did make up good ground late in the straight when fourth to the very much in form Felix Majestic. Hopefully he can settle closer in the run because he has shown that he can settle near the speed and still be effective late.

13 Victory Lane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Team Price trains this gelding, who was kept quite safe in betting when resuming a few weeks back in the Midway where he got back off the speed but worked home hard late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Peace Officer. He can settle much closer in the run and still be effective at the end.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 8 Awesome Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Jason Deamer trained gelding that resumed over 1250m on the Kenso track where he sat last in the run and failed to make up any real headway, finishing last behind Loves Me Likearock. Good second up record and is much better suited up to 1400m. Not sure he wins but can pinch top four.

6 Marquess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive five year old for James Cummings heading in the right direction. His last three runs have come at Rosehill, the latest being several weeks ago over 1900m where he looked a moral on paper and aided by a positive steer from Zac Lloyd, he made a mess of them and was quite dominant late. He looks a real Five Diamonds prospect and a win here, IMO, will cement him a spot.

8 Pierossa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and she can go on with it. Team Snowden trained mare that has raced here her past couple, two back running second to a very nice horse, Marquess, before going to 2000m here two weeks ago when driving hard on the fence to nail Mission Phoenix on the peg. Took a while to get the win for the prep but she can continue winning now she’s found form.

9 Caboche (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 2000m for Chris Waller. He resumed three weeks back over the mile here where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out but that said, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Unspoken. Like him up in trip and I thought the tick over trial was a pretty good piece of work. Knockout hope for sure.

12 Commemorative (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very exciting prospect for James Cummings that resumes. She hasn’t raced since her debut at Canterbury back in June where she lobbed into the box seat before shoving into clear air and the giant filly went on to win quite comfortably. Her two trials to get ready have been outstanding to the eye and I think she’ll love Randwick, the big track and long straight to wind up.

7 Junquiera (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is first up for John O’Shea and is dangerous. She resumes, having not raced since Feb 24 at Canterbury when beaten several lengths by Kazou and perhaps at the end of her prep. Given a good break and her two trials have been solid enough. Likely spots them a start but should be strong at the end. Leading contender so watch the market.

2 Rainbiel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for Joe Pride that I am convinced is knocking on the door. This mare comes through The Nivison from two weeks back at Rosehill where the track pattern was against her but I thought she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Magic Time. Back to benchmark grade, 78 grade, she is certainly going well enough to take this out.

7 Smashing Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very nice horse for Ryan/Alexiou that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Sep 9 at Rosehill when one of the runs of the meeting from last against the pattern, working home with real purpose when second to Red Card. He’ll be spotting them a start but nothing will be finishing off better.

1 Dashing Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting mare. Formerly with Team Hawkes, she now finds herself with Joe Pride. This stable is fast becoming the best in Australia at improving a tried horse, especially with older mares who seemingly have no upside but just grow another leg. Trial work has been encouraging and she is Stakes class when right. Watch the market.

10 Mars Mission (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an enigma but he has the talent under the hood to measure up. He resumed a few weeks ago over 1100m at Rosehill where he was dragged back for cover from the wide gate and while he was never a threat, I thought he found the line well enough behind Tristate. Fitter and with a more positive ride, he can take this out.

12 Knight’s Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has eyes on the Golden Eagle but I am convinced he has come back well and can give this a shake. He resumed several weeks ago over 1200m here where he was run off his legs early and was never a winning factor but he picked up and was pretty good to the line late in the piece behind Airman. Fitter, up in trip, can settle closer and be strong at the end.

11 Unspoken (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Snowden. 2/2 this time in and each time he has showed good ticker to find the line and win, with a key being three weeks between runs, which is the gap leading into this race. Harder here, clearly, but right down in the weights and with upside to come, he rates as one of the leading contenders IMO.

2 Stockman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) needs more racing and 2000m+ but he has class and that will carry him a long way. He resumed in the Alan Brown two weeks back where he just found them too sharp, sitting last throughout and failing to beat a runner home in what was pretty much a barrier trial. Much better set up this time around…doubt he wins but he can run a much improved race.

Back up in trip is a big, big tick for 3 Palmetto (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Runner up over this trip in The Cameron before going to the Alan Brown over 1400m two weeks ago here where he got a tad keen in the run and that left him a touch empty late in the piece behind Cepheus. Back up in trip, traditional two week gap between runs this time around, I think it all points to him running well.

5 Cotehele (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a ripping prep for John O’Shea. He ran a fortnight back in the Alan Brown and I think you can easily make a case to say that if he jumps clean and gets clear air in the straight, he wins comfortably when a narrow second to Cepheus. You think he only has to run up to that effort to say he just about takes this out. But, he can be a hard horse to catch, so tread carefully.

8 Fawkner Park (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Annabel Neasham trained gelding that resumes. He was on track to being a potential Metropolitan horse but after failing in the Premiers Cup, he was spelled, albeit not for long. He has come back and looked very good in a recent trial win. Likely spots them a start but should be strong at the end. Definite winning chance.

1 Flying Crazy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but can launch late if things fall into place. As usual, he bombed the start when racing in the Alan Brown so they elected to stay inside, saved ground and it worked as he poked through late when a close up fourth to Cepheus. He’ll be conceding a start but should be strong late and is hard to beat.

5 Hail Manhattan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Hulbert and a win wouldn’t shock. He ran over the mile at Eagle Farm three weeks ago when ridden with a sit and loomed to win when asked for the big effort but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Shibli. Ran so well in a high rating Coffs Harbour Cup so I think a truly run mile here will be no issue.

2 Lion’s Roar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) loves Randwick and I think can be a big improver. He comes through the Alan Brown at Rosehill where he got into a tricky spot from the wide gate and albeit was safely held, he was close up in defeat behind Cepheus. He loves racing at Randwick and getting towards peak fitness, he can win without surprising.

7 Pizarro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a really good prep. John O’Shea trained gelding that was second up at this track/distance three weeks ago when back off the speed and closed the race off strongly late when close up in defeat behind Airman, who of course ran so well in the Sydney Stakes last Saturday, so that form clearly reads well. Leading contender, especially with a half more positive ride.

13 Tristate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was nominated for the Sydney Stakes last Saturday but given his low rating, he couldn’t get in and instead runs here. He is four weeks between runs since a dominant all the way win at Rosehill where the race shape was to his liking but he still had to take advantage and that he did. Rosehill 1100m is different to Randwick 1100m, but hard to knock him and his racing pattern.

8 Promitto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the engine under the hood to blow these away but it’s been a long time since he has shown anything positive. He resumed several weeks back here and looked in need of the run when down the track behind Kibou. Maps to do no work and be strong at the end. Knockout hope.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Smashing Eagle

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 3 Palmetto

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 12 Knight’s Choice

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 3, 7, 11, 12

Leg Two: 3, 5

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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